Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
The mountain metro that's quietly normalizing. Denver HPI ran +35.6% over 5 years (matching national), YoY slowing to +0.79% but still positive, and the +33.4% permit YoY is the third-largest jump in the queue. R/I is comfortable at 24.5% — Denver's high incomes keep rent affordable.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
5.57×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Colorado
- 4.95×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
24.5%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Colorado
- 23.9%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.9%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Colorado
- 2.8%+0.1
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.21%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Colorado
- 0.21%=
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.18
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
5.27
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Colorado
- 5.40
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+1.79
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Colorado
- 3.6%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.4
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Denver
Denver is the mountain metro that's quietly normalizing. Across 10 counties stretching from the foothills west to the high plains east — the metro packs 2.96 million residents with a household income of $102,339 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $570,300. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $2,089. The House Price Index ran +35.6% over five years (FHFA HPI) — running essentially even with the national pace — and YoY is still positive at +0.79%, slowing but not flipping like Tampa or Atlanta.
The interesting fact is how affordable Denver feels relative to its cost. Yes, the price-to-income is 5.57 (expensive) and the cap rate proxy is 2.9% (tight). But rent-to-income comes out at 24.5% (comfortable) — high incomes ($102,339 median) absorb the $2,089 median 2BR rent without straining the typical household. Denver is the rare expensive metro where the rent ceiling isn't oppressive.
The 10-county geometry is broad but concentrated:
- Denver County (711K pop, $586,700 median home value) leads with 5,132 building permits TTM — the city itself, plus the LoDo and RiNo redevelopment corridors. 7.22 permits per 1,000 — well above the metro average.
- Arapahoe (654K pop), Adams (520K pop), and Douglas (360K pop) form the inner-suburb tier with 3,455 + 2,704 + 2,311 permits combined. Aurora, Centennial, Highlands Ranch, and Castle Rock are the major submarkets.
- Jefferson County (581K pop, mountain-adjacent) only adds 869 permits — geographically constrained by the foothills. Lakewood, Golden, and Arvada have less to build.
- 5 smaller exurban/mountain counties combined add 1,136 permits.
Denver runs 5.27 permits per 1,000 residents — well above the national 3.49 and right at the Colorado state median of 5.40. Permit YoY is +33.4% — the third-largest jump in the queue after SF and Detroit.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +6,325 returns (IRS SOI) — small but positive (+0.21% of population). All top origins are inside Colorado, so the flow is intra-state. Unemployment is 3.6%, tighter than the national 4.0%. 48.4% of the workforce has a bachelor's-or-higher — top quartile education profile. Inside Colorado, Denver ranks #7 of 7 for 5-year HPI — last in a tight band.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Denver isn't your market on the buy side. The 2.9% cap proxy is tight. But the comfortable R/I means rents are sticky — once you own, the cash flow holds.
- If you're playing appreciation: Denver is a steady-grinder. The 5-year run matched the country, and the YoY is still positive while most other major metros have flipped. This is the trend-positive metro for the cycle ahead.
- If you already own here: Stay. The +33.4% permit YoY says builders see continued demand. Watch the next two YoY prints — Denver has outperformed the consensus narrative and may continue to.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+35.6%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+0.8% YoY
$570,300 median home value
Denver home prices climbed 35.6% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a modest appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change has cooled to 0.8%, signaling the post-2022 surge has unwound into steady-state appreciation.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Denver's index ran from ~205 in early 2020 to ~278 in Q4 2025. The **+35.6% 5-year change** in the card above is the canonical figure (Q4 2020 → Q4 2025) — running essentially even with the national pace.
- 02The Colorado state line tracks Denver closely — Denver is ~62% of CO's metro population, so the state-weighted average follows the Twin Cities-style pattern.
- 03U.S. metros climbed **+34.3%** over the same window. Denver beat the country by ~1pp — middle-of-the-pack performance, neither the Sun Belt over-shoot nor the coastal under-shoot.
- 04The most recent quarter is **+0.79% YoY** — slowing but still positive. Denver has not flipped negative like Tampa or Atlanta.
- 05Inside Colorado, Denver ranks **#7 of 7** for 5-year HPI — last in a tight band. The smaller CO metros (Boulder, Colorado Springs, Greeley) all grew slightly faster from a lower base.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas County | $674,000 | $145,737 | 4.62× | moderate |
| Elbert County | $664,600 | $129,477 | 5.13× | stretched |
| Broomfield County | $631,600 | $121,025 | 5.22× | stretched |
| Jefferson County | $604,400 | $107,800 | 5.61× | stretched |
| Denver County | $586,700 | $91,681 | 6.40× | stretched |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$2,089
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
24.5% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 24.5% of their income — 1.2 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.6 points above Colorado (23.9%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,754 | $21.0K | 20.6% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $2,089 | $25.1K | 24.5% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,734 | $32.8K | 32.1% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Denver's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.6% — 0.4 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$102,339
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
15,607
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+33.4% year-over-year
5.27 permits per 1,000 residents
Denver pulled 15,607 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 33.4% year-over-year. That works out to 5.27 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
7,174
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
125
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
8,308
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 10 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Denver County leads with 5,132 permits TTM** — 33% of the metro's 15,607-unit total. The city plus the LoDo/RiNo redevelopment corridor anchor the central county.
- 02Arapahoe (3,455), Adams (2,704), and Douglas (2,311) form the inner-suburb tier — Aurora, Centennial, Highlands Ranch, Castle Rock are the major submarkets.
- 03Jefferson County (581K pop) only adds **869 permits** — surprisingly low for a county that big. Jeffco is the western mountain-adjacent suburbs (Lakewood, Golden, Arvada) with more constrained land.
- 04Broomfield, Elbert, Park, Gilpin, and Clear Creek combined add **1,136 permits** — the smaller exurban/mountain counties.
- 05Denver runs **5.27 permits per 1,000 residents** — well above the national 3.49 and right at the Colorado state median of 5.40. **Permit YoY is +33.4%**, the third-largest jump in the queue after SF and Detroit.
How to read the map
- 01Denver County (the city itself) has 5,132 permits TTM ÷ 711K residents = **7.22 per 1,000** — significantly above the metro average. The urban core is permitting harder than its suburbs per capita.
- 02**Adams County (north) is the densest exurb at 5.20 per 1,000** — close to Denver's rate. The northern Federal Heights/Thornton/Brighton corridor is absorbing growth.
- 03**Douglas County (south) at 6.42 per 1,000** is the wealthy southern exurb — Castle Rock, Highlands Ranch, Parker. Builds harder per capita than Arapahoe.
- 04Jefferson County (west, mountain-adjacent) only 1.50 per 1,000 — geographically constrained by the foothills.
- 05**The footprint is broad.** 10 counties stretch from the foothills west to the high plains east. Permit activity is concentrated in Denver County itself plus the north (Adams) and south (Douglas) suburban corridors.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denver County | 710,800 | $91,681 | $586,700 | 5,132 | +62.9% |
| 2 | Arapahoe County | 654,453 | $97,215 | $526,000 | 3,455 | +29.5% |
| 3 | Jefferson County | 580,519 | $107,800 | $604,400 | 869 | |
| 4 | Adams County | 520,149 | $91,387 | $458,400 | 2,704 | +42.5% |
| 5 | Douglas County | 360,206 | $145,737 | $674,000 | 2,311 | |
| 6 | Broomfield County | 73,946 | $121,025 | $631,600 | 611 | +47.6% |
| 7 | Elbert County | 26,457 | $129,477 | $664,600 | 331 | |
| 8 | Park County | 17,597 | $95,450 | $489,300 | 151 | +29.1% |
| 9 | Clear Creek County | 9,403 | $96,667 | $572,800 | 19 | +5.6% |
| 10 | Gilpin County | 5,856 | $88,654 | $512,600 | 24 | +41.2% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Denver by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 3 of 4 comparable metrics
Denver is closest in size to Baltimore, San Diego, Portland, Minneapolis. best in class on Unemployment, Net migration, Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Denver is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Denver | 2.96M | $102K | $570K | 5.57× | 2.9% | +35.6% | 5.27 | +0.21% | 3.6% |
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | 2.84M | $97K | $373K | 3.84× | 3.9% | +38.3% | 2.17 | -0.17% | 3.6% |
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 3.29M | $102K | $792K | 7.74× | 3.0% | +52.2% | 3.61 | -0.26% | 4.4% |
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | 2.51M | $95K | $527K | 5.57× | 2.8% | +30.6% | 3.31 | +0.05% | 4.9% |
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 3.68M | $98K | $354K | 3.61× | 3.8% | +33.5% | 3.84 | -0.13% | 4.0% |
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA | 2.39M | $94K | $559K | 5.95× | 3.1% | +32.9% | 4.32 | -0.03% | 4.8% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+6,325
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.21% of metro population
26,623 from top origin
Denver absorbed +6,325 net IRS returns — small but positive (+0.21% of population). The top out-migration origins are all inside Colorado (Denver, Arapahoe, Jefferson, Adams, Douglas) — the flow is intra-state, with the metro shedding very little to other states despite being a high-cost city.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Denver County, CO | 26,623 |
| Arapahoe County, CO | 18,604 |
| Jefferson County, CO | 14,597 |
| Adams County, CO | 10,695 |
| Douglas County, CO | 6,778 |
| Boulder County, CO | 5,468 |
Who lives in Denver
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 37.2
- Owner-occupancy
- 64.3%
- Bachelor's+
- 48.4%
Denver relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 37.2, 64.3% owner-occupancy 48.4% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 49.4% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $102,339
- Median age
- 37.2
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 48.4%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 64.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 5.3%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 49.4%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026