- 01US cap rates are compressing toward 4-5% in hot metros — Portugal and Greece still offer 5-8%
- 02Currency risk works both ways: a weak euro means cheaper entry, but rental income converts to fewer dollars
- 03The five headaches: currency risk, legal systems, property management, tax treaties, and capital controls
- 041031 exchanges do NOT work internationally — all gains are taxed on repatriation
Show Notes
A $280,000 apartment in Lisbon. Cap rate: 5.2%. Same cash flow profile as a $420,000 duplex in Austin — except the Austin duplex runs 4.1%. That's a full point of yield. For the first time in 15 years of stateside investing, I'm seriously asking: what if the best deal isn't in the US?
Cap rates in hot American metros have compressed to 4–5%. Portugal, Greece, Spain — still sitting at 5–8%. The math is hard to ignore. So I'm opening the international playbook. And I'm nervous.
Timestamps
- 0:00 — Why I'm looking overseas for the first time
- 1:15 — The cap rate compression problem in the US
- 2:30 — The five headaches of international investing
- 4:00 — Currency risk as a double-edged sword
- 5:15 — Coming up: the Europe series
The Cap Rate Compression Problem
Phoenix. Austin. Nashville. Cap rates in these markets dropped from 6–7% a decade ago to 4.5% today. You're paying more for the same NOI. Your cash-on-cash return gets squeezed. Your LTV assumptions have to be tighter.
Meanwhile, Lisbon trades at 5.5–6%. Athens, 6–7%. Even Barcelona can still pencil at 5%. A 1.5-point spread on a $297,000 property is $4,455 a year in extra income. Over 10 years, that's $44,550 — before appreciation, before currency moves.
The Five Headaches of International Investing
Currency risk. You buy in euros, earn rent in euros, sell in euros. A 10% drop in the euro wipes out a year of cash flow. A 10% rise adds a bonus. You're not just betting on the property — you're betting on the exchange rate.
Legal systems. Property law in Portugal isn't property law in Texas. Inheritance rules, tenant protections, foreclosure timelines — all different. You need a local attorney. "We do it differently here" is a warning, not a comfort.
Property management. Who's collecting rent 5,000 miles away? Who's handling the leak at 2 a.m.? Finding a reliable property manager who speaks the language and knows the market is harder than finding the deal itself.
Tax treaties. The US taxes worldwide income. Portugal has its own rules. Greece has its own. Treaties prevent double taxation — but miss a filing and you're paying twice.
Capital controls. Some countries restrict how much money moves in or out. Greece had capital controls during the debt crisis. Your equity could get trapped. That's not theoretical — it's history.
Currency Risk: The Double-Edged Sword
A weak euro means your dollars go further. Buy a EUR 250,000 apartment when the euro is at 1.05 to the dollar — that's $262,500. The euro drops to 1.15? Same apartment, now worth $217,400 in dollars. A $45,000 paper loss without the property moving.
Flip it: the euro strengthens. Your EUR 2,000 monthly rent was $2,100 when you bought. Now it's $2,300. Same property, same tenant, more dollars. You have to know you're exposed — and size your position so you can stomach the swings.
The 1031 Trap
1031 exchanges do NOT work internationally. The IRS allows tax-deferred exchanges only for like-kind property in the United States. Sell a rental in Phoenix, buy one in Lisbon — you pay capital gains on the full gain. No deferral.
When you sell the overseas property and bring the money home, you're taxed on repatriation. Plan for it. Structure for it. Don't assume the same rules apply.
Over the next few episodes, we go country by country: Portugal, Spain, Greece. The yield play, the residency angle, the lifestyle angle. Next up: Portugal — 5% yields, Golden Visa, and the catch. Episode 64.
Resources
- Market Research and Location Analysis — the framework for evaluating any market, domestic or international
- Portfolio Scaling and 1031 Exchanges — how 1031 exchanges work stateside and why they stop at the border
- How to Analyze a Rental Property Deal — the metrics behind every yield comparison in this episode
- Tax Optimization for Real Estate Investors — worldwide income, treaty structures, and filing requirements
- IRS 1031 Exchange Rules — Section 1031 — the actual statute confirming like-kind exchanges apply only to US property
Cap rate measures a property's annual net operating income as a percentage of its purchase price or current market value, assuming an all-cash purchase.
Read definition →Cash flow is what's left in your pocket after a rental pays all its expenses — including the mortgage. NOI minus debt service. What actually hits your bank account each month or year.
Read definition →Cash-on-cash return measures your annual pre-tax cash flow as a percentage of the total cash you actually invested in a property.
Read definition →The ratio of a loan amount to a property's appraised value, expressed as a percentage — a 75% LTV on a $200,000 property means a $150,000 loan and $50,000 in equity.
Read definition →A 1031 exchange (IRC Section 1031) lets you sell an investment property and defer capital gains and depreciation recapture by reinvesting the proceeds into a like-kind replacement property of equal or greater value, using a Qualified Intermediary to hold the funds.
Read definition →



