
Cleveland Hits 1.2 Months of Supply as Midwest Tightens, Sun Belt Loosens
Pending sales climbed to 79,220 weekly while Cleveland's supply fell to 1.2 months and Austin loosened. Affordability is sorting demand by geography.
The Data

1.2 months. That's Cleveland's current months of supply, according to HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami's latest Housing Market Tracker. Columbus sits near 1.3 months; Detroit remains similarly constrained. Cleveland absorbs 20% of its inventory weekly — nearly double the 12% national pace.
The national backdrop is firmer than rates suggest. Weekly pending home sales climbed to 79,220, up from 74,212 a year earlier. The 30-year mortgage rate sits at 6.42% (FRED MORTGAGE30US) — held below 7% only because the mortgage-Treasury spread closed last week at 1.96%, above the 1.60–1.80% historical band but well below the worst 2023 readings.
The Context
Mohtashami's framing is direct: "If we had the worst mortgage spread levels of 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.57% today, not 6.42%." The spread improvement is preserving aggregate demand, but where that demand lands now turns on affordability, not appreciation momentum. Cleveland's median home price sits near $250,000, Detroit around $242,500, and St. Louis near $301,000 — payment math that still clears for middle-income buyers at 6.42%.
The contrast at the other end is stark. Phoenix now carries a median above $530,000 and Dallas near $450,000. Houston, San Antonio, and Austin all carry significantly higher inventory than Midwest peers. Separate metro-level days-on-market data put Austin at 110 days on market — the slowest in the country. REI Prime covered the affordability split earlier today: prices up 54% since 2020 against rents up 18%. Today's tracker shows where that gap is biting.
Also Moving
- April retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month — a third consecutive monthly increase — even as CPI ran 3.8% annualized, per the Census Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report. Economist Chris Rupkey read the print as ruling out near-term Fed cuts.
- CMBS overall special-servicing rate hit 11.38% in April, with office at 17.66% (+93bps month-over-month), per Trepp's April report. The $470M Houston Allen Center loan transferred on balloon default.
- Zillow, NAR, Fannie Mae and J.P. Morgan all cut 2026 forecasts in the past two weeks, per BiggerPockets' On The Market. The convergence is toward fewer transactions, flat-to-down prices, and mortgage rates staying in the low-6s through year-end.
What to Watch
Three signals over the next 30 days:
- Today, 9:25 AM ET — Fed Chair speech. Any softening on the inflation read shifts spread expectations and feeds the 6.42% rate.
- Friday — NAHB Housing Market Index for May. Builder confidence is the cleanest pulse on Sun Belt new-construction inventory absorption.
- Thursday, May 22 — Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED. Whether the 30-year holds below 6.50% determines whether Midwest absorption stays near 20% or compresses.
Data sources: FRED MORTGAGE30US, HousingWire Tracker, Trepp via CRE Daily, Census MARTS.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is the largest U.S. trade association for single-family and multifamily home builders — a 140,000-member organization that publishes the monthly Housing Market Index, Housing Starts commentary, and New Home Sales analysis.
Read definition →BPS is the Census Bureau's monthly survey of residential building permits issued by local permit-issuing jurisdictions — the source of every county and metro permit count used in real estate supply analysis.
Read definition →CES is the BLS monthly survey of business payrolls that produces nonfarm employment counts at the national, state, and metro level — the establishment-based counterpart to LAUS unemployment data.
Read definition →NAR is the largest U.S. real estate trade association — 1.5 million REALTOR® members — that governs the MLS system, publishes the monthly Existing Home Sales report, owns Realtor.com, and whose 2024 settlement reshaped how buyer agents get paid.
Read definition →Rent is the periodic payment a tenant makes to a landlord in exchange for the right to occupy a property -- the single revenue line that funds your mortgage, expenses, and profit as a rental property investor.
Read definition →FFO (Funds from Operations) is the standard metric used to measure a REIT's recurring operating performance. It adjusts net income by adding back non-cash depreciation and amortization charges and subtracting one-time gains from property sales, leaving behind a number that reflects the actual cash-generating power of the underlying real estate portfolio.
Read definition →Sophia Warren
Residential Investment Analyst & News Editor
My realm is residential real estate investment, with a knack for spotting gems in emerging markets. I also edit the REI Prime daily news desk, where I translate federal data releases and operator signals into actionable briefs for small investors. Beyond properties, my world blooms in urban gardens and thrives in crafting stylish interiors.
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