March New-Home Sales Held at 682K — But Prices Hit a 5-Year Low
Census reported March new-home sales at a 682,000 SAAR, +3.3% YoY. The deeper read is the price line: median $387,400, the lowest since July 2021.
The Data
682,000.
That's the seasonally-adjusted annual rate of new single-family home sales for March 2026, released by the Census Bureau on Tuesday — up 3.3% from a year ago. Volume held. The price line did not.
The median new-home sale price fell to $387,400, down 6.2% year-over-year and 5.3% from February. That is the lowest reading since July 2021, and it now sits below the median existing-home price of $408,800. Combined new- and existing-home months of supply reached 4.8, per a release-day note from NAHB's Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington. The regional decomposition tells the rest: sales rose 7.9% YoY in the South while the West fell 13.3%, and inventory of new single-family homes for sale in the South sits 60% above its March 2019 level.
The Context
The reported median understates how far prices have moved. Wolf Richter at Wolf Street noted that the Census figure is the contract price — it excludes mortgage-rate buydowns and the cash incentives builders are using to clear inventory. Lennar's Q1 financial statements disclosed an average price per home sold of $374,000 once buydown costs are included, the lowest since 2017 and 24% below the Q2 2022 peak. Lennar's gross margin on home sales fell to 15.2% from 26.9% in Q1 2022.
Other builders confirmed the pressure on the HousingWire earnings recap. Green Brick Partners' Q1 incentives reached 10.1% of sales price, up from 6.8% a year ago. M/I Homes saw new contracts climb 11% in January and 7% in February before flipping to a 6% YoY decline in March. First American's Odeta Kushi attributed the softening to "elevated interest rates, declining consumer confidence, and rising geopolitical and energy-related risks."
Also Moving
- A 294-unit Austin apartment moved to special servicing on its Freddie Mac loan, with Morningstar Credit attributing the September 2025 occupancy drop to 75% to local ICE enforcement (Multifamily Dive). LeaseLock chief economist Greg Willett, citing monthly Class C apartment rent data, said March move-in lease rents fell 14% YoY in Austin, 9% in Colorado and Arizona, and 7.5% across Texas.
- HUD streamlined its FHA Multifamily Accelerated Processing (MAP) Guide, removing standalone railroad-vibration assessments, restoring prior policy on pressurized pipelines, and updating power-line and noise standards (Multifamily Executive).
What to Watch
Three observable signals over the next 30 days:
- May 6-7 — FOMC meeting. Consensus is a hold at the current target range. The post-meeting statement language on the inflation-versus-labor balance is what affects bond yields, and yields set the spread builders are buying down.
- May 7 — MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Purchase-application volume has tracked the buydown story. A second consecutive weekly print above prior-year levels would confirm the price-driven volume thesis.
- May 8 — Weekly initial jobless claims. A reading sustained above 220K would tighten the labor signal Kushi referenced.
Data sources: Census Bureau New Residential Sales, HousingWire, Wolf Street, Multifamily Dive.
Reporter's View
I'm watching the gap between Lennar's $374K all-in number and the Census $387,400 contract median. If that wedge widens through Q2, the headline will keep reading "prices firming" while gross margins keep compressing.
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is the executive branch agency within the White House that oversees federal budgeting, regulatory review, and — critically for real estate data — defines the boundaries of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), Metropolitan Divisions, and related geographic units used across federal statistics.
Read definition →The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is the largest U.S. trade association for single-family and multifamily home builders — a 140,000-member organization that publishes the monthly Housing Market Index, Housing Starts commentary, and New Home Sales analysis.
Read definition →CES is the BLS monthly survey of business payrolls that produces nonfarm employment counts at the national, state, and metro level — the establishment-based counterpart to LAUS unemployment data.
Read definition →NAR is the largest U.S. real estate trade association — 1.5 million REALTOR® members — that governs the MLS system, publishes the monthly Existing Home Sales report, owns Realtor.com, and whose 2024 settlement reshaped how buyer agents get paid.
Read definition →HUD is the cabinet-level department that administers federal housing policy in the U.S. — it insures FHA mortgages, runs the Section 8 voucher program, publishes the Fair Market Rent benchmark, and enforces the Fair Housing Act.
Read definition →A single-family home is a freestanding residential structure built for one household on its own lot, with no shared walls, roof, or foundation — the most common property type in American real estate and the default starting point for investment property portfolios.
Read definition →Sophia Warren
Residential Investment Analyst & News Editor
My realm is residential real estate investment, with a knack for spotting gems in emerging markets. I also edit the REI Prime daily news desk, where I translate federal data releases and operator signals into actionable briefs for small investors. Beyond properties, my world blooms in urban gardens and thrives in crafting stylish interiors.
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