Powell's Last FOMC Meets $11.6T Big Tech: Wednesday Sets Housing's Tone
Wednesday April 29 stacks Powell's final FOMC presser — a hold at 3.50-3.75% is consensus — with hyperscaler earnings carrying $650B in 2026 capex. The mortgage-rate read-through runs through both.
The Data
3.50-3.75%. That is the Fed funds target the FOMC is widely expected to hold at on Wednesday — Jerome Powell's final meeting before his term ends. Fed funds futures price the hold as consensus, per the CME FedWatch tool.
The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.32% (FRED DGS10). The 30-year mortgage tracks that bond, not the funds rate — so the press conference, not the decision, is what moves mortgage rates by Friday.
The Context
Wednesday is denser than a single Fed meeting. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft — a combined $11.6 trillion in market cap, 19% of the S&P 500 — all report the same day, with $650 billion in 2026 capex on the table. Microsoft enters the print down 12% YTD.
Two channels matter for housing. The first is the mortgage-Treasury spread: if Powell signals patience on cuts, the curve repricing flows directly to the 30-year. The second is data-center construction. Hyperscaler capex guidance has driven industrial absorption in Northern Virginia, Phoenix, and Atlanta for two years; a downshift in any of the four reads as a leading indicator.
REI Prime covered the April 17 mortgage drop to 6.30% — that was the bond-spread move, not the Fed. Wednesday tests whether it holds.
Also Moving
- Goldman raised its Brent forecast to $90/barrel from $80, with Iran-US talks stalled and global inventories drawing 11-12 million barrels a day in April (CNBC). Construction inputs and insurance pricing sit downstream.
- South Florida multifamily pulled $520M in construction lending in one week. Tyko Capital provided a $360M loan on Related Group/BH Group's 350-unit Icon Beach Hollywood; M&T Bank funded $160M on Time Equities' 465-unit Boynton Beach project. Both land in the Miami metro.
- NYC office leasing tightened on multiple deals. Cushman & Wakefield's 101 Park Avenue hit 98% leased after 77,400 sf in new signings, and Energy Capital Partners doubled its 1WTC footprint to 70,425 sf (Commercial Observer).
What to Watch
Three signals over the next 72 hours:
- Wednesday 2:00pm ET — FOMC statement. The dot-plot revision and any change to the "modestly restrictive" framing will move the long end before Powell speaks.
- Wednesday 2:30pm ET — Powell press conference. Mortgage spreads typically reprice within hours; Thursday's PMMS print will carry the verdict.
- Wednesday after-hours — Microsoft and Meta earnings. Capex guidance for 2026 reads through to industrial demand in data-center metros. Watch whether the $650B combined number gets revised.
Data sources: FRED DGS10, FRED FEDFUNDS, FOMC calendar, CME FedWatch, CNBC, Commercial Observer.
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is the executive branch agency within the White House that oversees federal budgeting, regulatory review, and — critically for real estate data — defines the boundaries of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), Metropolitan Divisions, and related geographic units used across federal statistics.
Read definition →CES is the BLS monthly survey of business payrolls that produces nonfarm employment counts at the national, state, and metro level — the establishment-based counterpart to LAUS unemployment data.
Read definition →BEA is the U.S. Department of Commerce agency that publishes GDP, personal income, and regional economic data — the numbers you use to tell whether a metro's economy is growing, which sectors drive it, and whether local income can support current rents.
Read definition →Rent is the periodic payment a tenant makes to a landlord in exchange for the right to occupy a property -- the single revenue line that funds your mortgage, expenses, and profit as a rental property investor.
Read definition →A multifamily property is any residential building containing two or more separate dwelling units under one roof — from a side-by-side duplex to a 300-unit apartment complex — where each unit has its own kitchen, bathroom, and entrance, and each unit generates independent rental income.
Read definition →A lease is a legally binding contract between a landlord and a tenant that grants the tenant exclusive use of a property for a specified period in exchange for rent — establishing every right, obligation, and financial term that governs the rental relationship.
Read definition →Sophia Warren
Residential Investment Analyst & News Editor
My realm is residential real estate investment, with a knack for spotting gems in emerging markets. I also edit the REI Prime daily news desk, where I translate federal data releases and operator signals into actionable briefs for small investors. Beyond properties, my world blooms in urban gardens and thrives in crafting stylish interiors.
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