NAR: March Home Sales Hit 3.98M, Slowest Since 2009
NAR's March 2026 existing-home sales fell 3.6% to 3.98M SAAR, the slowest March print since 2009. Inventory rising, sales falling, prices at record.
3.98 million. Existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.98 million in March 2026, down 3.6% from February and 1.0% year-over-year, per NAR's April 13 release — the slowest March print since 2009, when the housing market was bottoming out of the global financial crisis.
The shape of the weakness matters more than the headline. Total inventory rose to 1.36 million listings (+2.3% year-over-year, 4.1 months of supply — the highest for any March since 2020), while the median existing-home price hit a new March record at $408,800, up 1.4% from a year ago. Prices rising, sales falling — the hallmark of a market where would-be buyers can't close and would-be sellers won't cut.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun put the weakness on the macro: "March home sales remained sluggish and below last year's pace. Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers." Yun also noted the typical homeowner has accumulated $128,100 in housing wealth over the past six years — the mechanism keeping existing owners off the resale market. The same release carried an unusual move: NAR cut its 2026 full-year forecast for existing-home sales to +4.0%, down from +14% in its January outlook. A 1,000-basis-point revision inside of four months.
Regional detail:
Region | SAAR | MoM | Median price | YoY price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Northeast | 430k | −8.5% | $494,500 | +5.7% |
Midwest | 920k | −4.2% | $315,500 | +4.9% |
South | 1.86m | −3.1% | $362,600 | +0.8% |
West | 770k | −1.3% | $613,400 | −1.3% |
The Northeast is the sharpest drop — down 12.2% year-over-year at a 430k annual pace. The West is the only region showing year-over-year price declines, extending a trend that began in late 2024.
Also moving
- Census New Home Sales for March, originally scheduled for release today, has been rescheduled to May 5. February and March new-home prints will drop on the same day, stacking the next read on the supply side.
- Mortgage rates remain in the 6.60–7.00% band that's held since January, per FRED MORTGAGE30US — no rate relief pulling buyers off the sidelines.
Editor's Read
The 2009 comparison is doing work. Back then sales were bottoming out of a crash; now they're grinding sideways with record prices and record-low affordability. I'm watching the May 5 new-home print for whether builders held pace or the softness spread from resale into new construction.
Data sources: NAR — Existing-Home Sales, March 2026 (April 13 release), FRED EXHOSLUSM495S, Census New Residential Sales release schedule.
SAAR is the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate — a single month's economic activity converted to an annual equivalent by first stripping seasonal patterns, then multiplying by 12.
Read definition →CES is the BLS monthly survey of business payrolls that produces nonfarm employment counts at the national, state, and metro level — the establishment-based counterpart to LAUS unemployment data.
Read definition →NAR is the largest U.S. real estate trade association — 1.5 million REALTOR® members — that governs the MLS system, publishes the monthly Existing Home Sales report, owns Realtor.com, and whose 2024 settlement reshaped how buyer agents get paid.
Read definition →A lease is a legally binding contract between a landlord and a tenant that grants the tenant exclusive use of a property for a specified period in exchange for rent — establishing every right, obligation, and financial term that governs the rental relationship.
Read definition →FFO (Funds from Operations) is the standard metric used to measure a REIT's recurring operating performance. It adjusts net income by adding back non-cash depreciation and amortization charges and subtracting one-time gains from property sales, leaving behind a number that reflects the actual cash-generating power of the underlying real estate portfolio.
Read definition →APR (Annual Percentage Rate) is the total annualized cost of a loan expressed as a percentage, incorporating both the interest rate and lender fees — origination charges, discount points, broker fees — spread across the full loan term. Mandated by the Truth in Lending Act, it gives borrowers a standardized number that's always higher than or equal to the stated interest rate.
Read definition →Sophia Warren
Residential Investment Analyst & News Editor
My realm is residential real estate investment, with a knack for spotting gems in emerging markets. I also edit the REI Prime daily news desk, where I translate federal data releases and operator signals into actionable briefs for small investors. Beyond properties, my world blooms in urban gardens and thrives in crafting stylish interiors.
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