Fed Meets April 28-29 With Zero Cut Priced In
The FOMC meets April 28-29 with near-zero odds of a cut after March CPI hit 3.3% YoY. What the scripted hold means for mortgage rates and deal math.
0%.
That's the rate cut the market is pricing into next week's FOMC decision. The Federal Open Market Committee meets April 28-29, and the CME FedWatch Tool shows near-zero odds of a cut — roughly 95% hold probability before the March CPI release, widening past 99% after the hot print. The federal funds target has sat at 3.50–3.75% since the March 17-18 meeting.
The March CPI report is the reason the odds hardened. Headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February — the highest reading since May 2024, driven by a 21.2% one-month spike in gasoline tied to the Iran conflict, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI stayed tamer at 2.6% YoY and 0.2% MoM, but the headline print gave the FOMC full cover to wait.
For borrowers, the consequence is already live in the rate sheet. Daily mortgage quotes tracked by Fortune put the 30-year conforming average at 6.218% on April 22, down 6 bps week-over-week — within the 6.18–6.30% band the weekly Freddie Mac PMMS has printed through April. The 15-year fell harder — 5.450%, down 24 bps from 5.689% the prior week. Neither move came from a policy expectation. Both came from bond buyers front-running cuts the Fed hasn't committed to.
Also moving
- March CPI 3.3% YoY (BLS) — gasoline +21.2% MoM was the largest monthly move since 1967 and accounted for nearly three-quarters of the all-items increase.
- Core CPI held at 2.6% YoY, 0.2% MoM (BLS) — energy-driven shocks typically exit annual comparisons within 12 months; the base case is that core stays the Fed's dashboard metric.
- Next FOMC with Summary of Economic Projections is June 16-17 (Fed calendar) — rate-path signaling will be thinner at April's meeting; the updated dot plot doesn't land until June.
Editor's Read
The April 29 statement is a scripted hold. The tell is the press conference — whether Powell frames March CPI as transitory Iran-gas noise or as evidence the disinflation path has stalled. I'm watching for any new language on shelter-services inflation that wasn't in the March 17-18 statement.
Data sources: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar, BLS CPI March 2026, CME FedWatch Tool, Freddie Mac PMMS, Fortune.
BPS is the Census Bureau's monthly survey of residential building permits issued by local permit-issuing jurisdictions — the source of every county and metro permit count used in real estate supply analysis.
Read definition →CES is the BLS monthly survey of business payrolls that produces nonfarm employment counts at the national, state, and metro level — the establishment-based counterpart to LAUS unemployment data.
Read definition →A lease is a legally binding contract between a landlord and a tenant that grants the tenant exclusive use of a property for a specified period in exchange for rent — establishing every right, obligation, and financial term that governs the rental relationship.
Read definition →The Dot Plot is a chart published quarterly by the Federal Reserve showing each FOMC member's individual projection for the federal funds rate at the end of the current year, next two years, and longer term, providing forward guidance on interest rate direction that directly impacts mortgage rates and real estate markets.
Read definition →Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, FHLMC) is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) that purchases mortgages from lenders, packages them into securities, and sells them to investors. Along with Fannie Mae, it supports the conventional mortgage market for 1–4 unit residential properties.
Read definition →APR (Annual Percentage Rate) is the total annualized cost of a loan expressed as a percentage, incorporating both the interest rate and lender fees — origination charges, discount points, broker fees — spread across the full loan term. Mandated by the Truth in Lending Act, it gives borrowers a standardized number that's always higher than or equal to the stated interest rate.
Read definition →Sophia Warren
Residential Investment Analyst & News Editor
My realm is residential real estate investment, with a knack for spotting gems in emerging markets. I also edit the REI Prime daily news desk, where I translate federal data releases and operator signals into actionable briefs for small investors. Beyond properties, my world blooms in urban gardens and thrives in crafting stylish interiors.
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