Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
The new YoY leader. Milwaukee just printed +6.04% YoY HPI — the strongest recent print of any metro in the queue, ahead of Providence (+5.24%) and the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati/Kansas City tier. The 5-year HPI is +55.3%, in Sun Belt territory with Phoenix and Miami. Yet permits are only 2.01/1k and migration is −2,222. This is a supply-locked Midwest accelerator: the prices are climbing because almost nothing is being built.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.71×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Wisconsin
- 3.06×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.0%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Wisconsin
- 19.4%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.3
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.7%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Wisconsin
- 4.0%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.14%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Wisconsin
- 0.01%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline contracting
Permit pipeline
2.01
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Wisconsin
- 3.32
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Milwaukee
Milwaukee is the new YoY HPI leader of the queue. Across 4 counties — Milwaukee, Waukesha, Washington, Ozaukee — the metro packs 1.57 million residents with a household income of $76,404 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $283,800. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,338 — among the lowest in the queue. The House Price Index ran +55.3% over five years (FHFA HPI) — Sun Belt territory, on par with Miami (+55.3%) and ahead of Phoenix (+53.8%).
The interesting fact is that Milwaukee just printed the strongest YoY HPI in the queue: +6.04% YoY, ahead of Providence (+5.24%), Pittsburgh (+4.74%), Cincinnati (+4.53%), and Kansas City (+4.54%). Milwaukee took the YoY crown. And it did it with declining permits (−4.4% YoY), negative net migration (−2,222), and the lowest urban-core building rate of any major metro in the queue (0.94 per 1,000 in Milwaukee County). Supply is leaving the market faster than people are. The math is sustained entirely by scarcity.
The 4-county geometry concentrates the supply pipeline in the affluent suburbs:
- Milwaukee County (933K pop, $216,500 MHV) is the city core but only builds 879 permits TTM = 0.94 per 1,000. Among the lowest urban-core rates in any major metro.
- Waukesha County (407K pop, $373,600 MHV) leads with 1,241 permits = 3.05 per 1,000 — Brookfield, Pewaukee, Hartland. The affluent western suburbs.
- Ozaukee County (92K pop, $368,900 MHV) is the densest at 625 permits = 6.81 per 1,000 — Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton. The northern lakefront exurb.
- Washington County (137K pop, $316,200 MHV) builds 402 permits = 2.94 per 1,000 — West Bend, Hartford. The northwest workforce belt.
Milwaukee runs 2.01 permits per 1,000 residents — well below the national 3.49. Permit YoY is −4.4% — actually declining. Supply is going backwards while prices climb +6% YoY. The 55% single-family / 45% multifamily mix is typical Midwest urban density.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −2,222 returns (IRS SOI) — the metro is losing residents on net, −0.14% of population. The cap rate proxy is 3.68% — borderline tight, below the 4.4% national. The R/I 21.0% is comfortable, the cheapest rents relative to income in the queue. Owner-occupancy 60.4% (low — heavy renter base), bachelor's-or-higher 38.8%.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Milwaukee County (the city) has the lowest entry prices ($216K median) and workable rent math at the right neighborhood. North Side, Riverwest, Bay View. The cap proxy at the metro median is 3.68% but sub-county math can clear 5-6% on the right deal.
- If you're playing appreciation: Milwaukee is one of the best stories in the queue. +55.3% over 5 years AND +6.04% YoY (the queue leader) says the trend is accelerating. The scarcity-driven cycle could continue for years given the supply trajectory.
- If you already own here: Hold and lean in. Migration is negative and the labor data is incomplete, but supply is contracting and prices are climbing fast. Milwaukee is the scarcity-driven Midwest accelerator — different mechanics than Cincinnati or Pittsburgh, same direction.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+55.3%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+6.0% YoY
$283,800 median home value
Milwaukee home prices climbed 55.3% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 6.0% is still running hot.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Milwaukee ran **+55.3% over five years** — Sun Belt territory, on par with Miami (+55.3%) and ahead of Phoenix (+53.8%). The Midwest metro that quietly kept up with the rocket markets.
- 02Inside Wisconsin, Milwaukee ranks **#10 of 14** for 5-year HPI — middle of the pack. Madison and the smaller Wisconsin metros ran harder.
- 03**Recent YoY is +6.04%** — the **NEW HIGHEST recent print of any metro in the queue**, ahead of Providence (+5.24%), Pittsburgh (+4.74%), Cincinnati (+4.53%), and Kansas City (+4.54%). Milwaukee just took the YoY crown.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Milwaukee outperformed by ~21pp — quietly one of the largest outperformances in the queue.
- 05The takeaway: Milwaukee is the **fifth Midwest accelerator** and currently the strongest. Tight supply, declining permits, and a price index that won't stop climbing.
Where the value tier sits — top 4 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waukesha County | $373,600 | $104,100 | 3.59× | moderate |
| Ozaukee County | $368,900 | $96,734 | 3.81× | moderate |
| Washington County | $316,200 | $95,851 | 3.30× | moderate |
| Milwaukee County | $216,500 | $62,118 | 3.49× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,338
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
21.0% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 21.0% of their income — 2.3 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.6 points above Wisconsin (19.4%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,119 | $13.4K | 17.6% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,338 | $16.1K | 21.0% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,648 | $19.8K | 25.9% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Milwaukee's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$76,404
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
3,147
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
-4.4% year-over-year
2.01 permits per 1,000 residents
Milwaukee pulled 3,147 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a contraction 4.4% year-over-year. That works out to 2.01 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
1,741
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
232
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,174
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 4 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Waukesha County leads with 1,241 permits TTM** — Brookfield, Pewaukee, Hartland. The affluent western suburbs with the metro's highest median home value ($373,600).
- 02**Milwaukee County** (Milwaukee proper) only builds **879 permits = 0.94 per 1,000** — extraordinarily low for a metro core of 933K residents. The urban core is supply-locked.
- 03**Ozaukee County** (Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton) builds **625 permits = 6.81 per 1,000** — the densest builder by rate in the metro, the affluent northern lakefront exurb.
- 04Washington County (West Bend, Hartford) builds **402 permits = 2.94 per 1,000** — the northwest workforce suburbs.
- 05Milwaukee runs **2.01 permits per 1,000 residents** — well below the national 3.49. **Permit YoY is −4.4%** — actually declining. Supply is going backwards while prices climb +6% YoY. That math is unsustainable in either direction.
How to read the map
- 01**Ozaukee County (north — Mequon, Cedarburg) is the densest at 6.81 per 1,000** — affluent lakefront exurb growth.
- 02Waukesha County (west) at **3.05 per 1,000** — moderate, but absolute volume is meaningful at 1,241 permits.
- 03Washington County (northwest) at **2.94 per 1,000** — the workforce belt, slower pace.
- 04Milwaukee County (the core) at only **0.94 per 1,000** — among the lowest of any major metro core in the queue. The city is essentially not building.
- 05**The pattern is supply-tight + concentrated north.** The northern lakefront counties (Ozaukee + Washington) and the western Waukesha suburb account for almost all of the metro's growth. Milwaukee city is locked out of new construction.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee County | 933,063 | $62,118 | $216,500 | 879 | |
| 2 | Waukesha County | 407,290 | $104,100 | $373,600 | 1,241 | |
| 3 | Washington County | 136,842 | $95,851 | $316,200 | 402 | +0.5% |
| 4 | Ozaukee County | 91,745 | $96,734 | $368,900 | 625 | +21.1% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Milwaukee by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Milwaukee is closest in size to Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Providence, Virginia Beach.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Milwaukee is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Milwaukee | 1.57M | $76K | $284K | 3.71× | 3.7% | +55.3% | 2.01 | -0.14% | — |
Jacksonville, FL | 1.61M | $77K | $309K | 4.01× | 4.2% | +54.9% | 7.89 | +0.68% | 4.6% |
Oklahoma City, OK | 1.43M | $70K | $215K | 3.05× | 4.5% | +45.7% | 5.90 | +0.18% | 3.6% |
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 1.67M | $86K | $386K | 4.51× | 5.2% | +61.0% | 1.55 | -0.02% | 4.7% |
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC | 1.80M | $81K | $318K | 3.95× | 4.2% | +50.3% | 2.13 | -0.06% | — |
Richmond, VA | 1.32M | $84K | $326K | 3.86× | 4.0% | +56.0% | 7.58 | +0.27% | 3.3% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-2,222
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.14% of metro population
6,930 from top origin
Milwaukee lost −2,222 net IRS returns — −0.14% of population. The metro is shrinking on a household basis. Yet HPI is up +6.04% YoY, the highest of any metro in the queue. People are leaving but supply is leaving faster.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Milwaukee County, WI | 6,930 |
| Waukesha County, WI | 4,151 |
| Washington County, WI | 1,483 |
| Racine County, WI | 1,380 |
| Dane County, WI | 1,307 |
| Cook County, IL | 1,266 |
Who lives in Milwaukee
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 38.5
- Owner-occupancy
- 60.4%
- Bachelor's+
- 38.8%
Milwaukee relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 38.5, 60.4% owner-occupancy 38.8% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 44.7% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $76,404
- Median age
- 38.5
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 38.8%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 60.4%
- Vacancy rate
- 6.5%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 44.7%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026