Madison, WI
**State capital + UW-Madison + Epic Systems trifecta — apartment construction explosion.** Madison runs HPI **+53.4% over 5yr** with **YoY +4.09%** strong sustained. **P/I 3.97 moderate, R/I 23.4% comfortable, Cap proxy 3.83% tight**. MHV $345K. FMR 2BR $1,694. **MHHI $86,827 high**. 4 counties (Dane 560K, Columbia 58K, Green 37K, Iowa 24K). **Permits 10.22/1k strong**, **Permit YoY +56.6% major acceleration**. **24/76 SF/multi — HIGHEST 5+ unit multifamily share in entire queue** (5,029 multifamily 5+ permits vs only 1,697 SF). Migration −1,615 (−0.24% shrinking). **Unemployment 2.4% — LOWEST in queue, extremely tight labor market**. **Bachelors 49.3% — HIGHEST in queue (knowledge worker hub)**. Anchored by Wisconsin state government, **University of Wisconsin-Madison** (50K students, R1 research university, top-10 public university), **Epic Systems Corporation** (the largest healthcare software company in the US, ~13K employees on a single Verona campus), **American Family Insurance HQ**, **CUNA Mutual HQ**, Spectrum Brands, Lands' End, Sub-Zero, Trek Bicycles, the State Capitol.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.97×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Wisconsin
- 3.06×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
23.4%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Wisconsin
- 19.4%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.8%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Wisconsin
- 4.0%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.24%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Wisconsin
- 0.01%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
10.22
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Wisconsin
- 3.32+6.91
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+6.74
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
very tight labor market
Unemployment
2.4%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-1.6
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Madison
Madison, WI is home to 678,995 residents in 4 counties — Dane, Columbia, Green, and Iowa. The metro pulled 6,942 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 10.22 per 1,000 residents, 2.9 times the national pace of 3.49. The cap rate proxy sits at 3.83% — tight — and the price-to-income ratio is 3.97 moderate. Median household income is $86,827 (high), the median home value is $345K, and the BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 2.4% — the lowest of any T5 metro in the queue, an extremely tight labor market.
The structural story is the state capital + UW-Madison + Epic Systems trifecta. Madison is one of the rare metros with three independent institutional anchors that don't churn the way private-sector payrolls do:
1. Wisconsin state government — Madison is the state capital. ~25,000 state employees. 2. University of Wisconsin-Madison — Big Ten flagship, R1 research university, ~50,000 students and ~25,000 faculty/staff. Top-10 public university in the country, $1.5B+ research budget. 3. Epic Systems Corporation in Verona (Dane County) — the largest healthcare software company in the U.S. with ~13,000 employees on a single sprawling campus that looks like Disney crossed with Hogwarts. Epic processes electronic health records for over 250 million patients in the U.S.
Plus a strong corporate roster: American Family Insurance HQ, CUNA Mutual Group HQ (credit union insurance), Spectrum Brands (Rayovac, Black & Decker, George Foreman), Lands' End HQ (Dodgeville, Iowa County), Sub-Zero appliances, Trek Bicycles, John Deere offices, Promega biotech.
The county distribution:
- Dane County (559,891 residents, 6,583 permits TTM = 11.76 per 1,000) — Madison proper, Sun Prairie (fastest-growing suburb), Fitchburg, Middleton, Verona (Epic Systems campus), Stoughton, Waunakee, Oregon, McFarland, DeForest, Mount Horeb, Cottage Grove, Cross Plains. 95% of the metro pipeline. Permit YoY +58.28%.
- Columbia County (58,272 residents, 191 permits = 3.28 per 1,000) — Portage, Columbus, Lodi, Wisconsin Dells (the "Waterpark Capital of the World"). Northern bedroom county. Permit YoY −7.28%.
- Green County (37,066 residents, 101 permits = 2.72 per 1,000) — Monroe (the Swiss cheese capital), Brodhead, New Glarus. Dairy country.
- Iowa County (23,766 residents, 67 permits = 2.82 per 1,000) — Dodgeville (Lands' End HQ), Mineral Point, Spring Green (Frank Lloyd Wright's Taliesin estate).
Construction is 24% single-family / 76% multifamily (1,697 SF / 216 multi-2-4 / 5,029 multi-5+) — the highest 5+ unit multifamily share in the entire T5 queue. Madison is building apartments hand over fist for the Epic Systems and UW-Madison knowledge workforce. Permit YoY is +56.6% — major sustained acceleration.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −1,615 returns (−0.24% — shrinking). The negative is unusual for a metro with this much economic strength — it's likely a measurement artifact (UW-Madison students often retain home-of-record addresses elsewhere) plus some retiree out-migration to lower-cost states. According to IRS Statistics of Income, Madison's structural growth is from in-state migration into Dane County, not out-of-state inflow. Owner-occupancy 60.8% (lower than national, reflecting the renter-heavy university town), vacancy 4.4% (very low — supply is genuinely tight despite the apartment boom), bachelors 49.3% — the HIGHEST of any T5 metro in the queue, median age 36.9 (younger).
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Madison does NOT pencil. The cap proxy at 3.83% tight combined with the apartment supply tsunami means you're competing with 5,029 brand-new 5+ units coming online. Don't enter mid-cycle. Wait for the construction wave to absorb.
- If you're playing appreciation — Madison is the knowledge-worker compounder of the Midwest. The 2.4% unemployment is the lowest in the queue. The Bachelors-49.3% workforce density is the highest in the queue. The institutional anchor stack (state + UW + Epic) is unusually durable. Buy and hold for the Epic Systems decade. Focus on Sun Prairie (fastest-growing suburb), Verona (Epic Systems epicenter), and Middleton (the affluent western suburb).
- If you already own here — hold. The supply wave is real and will absorb over 24 months. Add multifamily exposure carefully — the 5+ unit pipeline is the heaviest in the queue and the cap rate compression will continue until that supply digests.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+53.4%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.1% YoY
$344,600 median home value
Madison home prices climbed 53.4% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.1% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Madison ran **+53.4% over five years** — strong Midwest territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 19 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +4.09%** — moderate, sustained. Madison has avoided any cooldown — the Epic Systems + UW-Madison + state government anchor is unusually durable.
- 03Inside Wisconsin, Madison ranks **#1 by HPI** — well ahead of Milwaukee, Green Bay, and Appleton.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Madison outperformed by ~19 points on knowledge-worker payroll.
- 05The takeaway: Madison is the **state capital + university + healthcare-software trifecta** — three institutional anchors that don't churn the way private payrolls do.
Where the value tier sits — top 4 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane County | $366,100 | $88,108 | 4.16× | moderate |
| Columbia County | $258,700 | $82,792 | 3.12× | moderate |
| Iowa County | $248,100 | $83,372 | 2.98× | affordable |
| Green County | $236,900 | $80,248 | 2.95× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,694
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
23.4% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 23.4% of their income — right at the U.S. average (23.3%) 4.0 points above Wisconsin (19.4%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,482 | $17.8K | 20.5% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,694 | $20.3K | 23.4% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,236 | $26.8K | 30.9% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
2.4%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Madison's labor market is tight, with unemployment running at 2.4% — 1.6 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
2.4%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$86,827
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
6,942
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+56.6% year-over-year
10.22 permits per 1,000 residents
Madison pulled 6,942 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 56.6% year-over-year. That works out to 10.22 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
1,697
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
216
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
5,029
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 4 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Dane County leads with 6,583 TTM permits = 11.76 per 1,000** — Madison proper, Sun Prairie, Fitchburg, Middleton, Verona (Epic Systems campus), Stoughton, Waunakee, Oregon, McFarland, DeForest, Mount Horeb. **95% of the metro pipeline.** Permit YoY **+58.28%**.
- 02**Columbia County** (Portage, Columbus, Lodi, Wisconsin Dells) issued **191 permits = 3.28 per 1,000** — northern bedroom county. Permit YoY −7.28%.
- 03**Green County** (Monroe, Brodhead, Albany, New Glarus) issued **101 permits = 2.72 per 1,000** — southern dairy country. Permit YoY +90.57%.
- 04**Iowa County** (Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Spring Green) issued **67 permits = 2.82 per 1,000** — small western county, home to the Frank Lloyd Wright Taliesin estate. Permit YoY +24.07%.
- 05Madison runs **10.22 permits per 1,000 residents** — **2.9x the national 3.49**. **Permit YoY +56.6%** major sustained acceleration.
How to read the map
- 01**Dane County (the urban core) is densest at 11.76 per 1,000** — Madison proper, Sun Prairie (the fastest-growing suburb), Fitchburg, Middleton, **Verona** (the Epic Systems campus, which is in the process of building Phase 5 of its Disney-meets-Hogwarts headquarters), Stoughton, Waunakee, DeForest. Dane County hosts **the entire University of Wisconsin-Madison campus + the State Capitol + Epic Systems**.
- 02**Columbia County (north, Portage/Wisconsin Dells) at 3.28 per 1,000** — northern bedroom county, anchored by tourism (Wisconsin Dells is the 'Waterpark Capital of the World').
- 03**Iowa County (west, Dodgeville/Mineral Point) at 2.82 per 1,000** — small western county, home to the Frank Lloyd Wright Taliesin estate and Lands' End headquarters in Dodgeville.
- 04**Green County (south, Monroe) at 2.72 per 1,000** — dairy country, the heart of Wisconsin cheese production.
- 05**Construction is 24% single-family / 76% multifamily** (1,697 SF / 216 multi-2-4 / 5,029 multi-5+) — **the highest 5+ unit multifamily share in the entire T5 queue**. Madison is building apartments hand over fist for the Epic Systems / UW-Madison knowledge workforce.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dane County | 559,891 | $88,108 | $366,100 | 6,583 | +58.3% |
| 2 | Columbia County | 58,272 | $82,792 | $258,700 | 191 | |
| 3 | Green County | 37,066 | $80,248 | $236,900 | 101 | +90.6% |
| 4 | Iowa County | 23,766 | $83,372 | $248,100 | 67 | +24.1% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Madison by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 3 comparable metrics
Madison is closest in size to Des Moines, Durham, Colorado Springs, Provo. best in class on Unemployment, and behind on Net migration.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Madison is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Madison | 0.68M | $87K | $345K | 3.97× | 3.8% | +53.4% | 10.22 | -0.24% | 2.4% |
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | 0.71M | $84K | $252K | 3.00× | 4.1% | +41.5% | 7.80 | +0.05% | 3.3% |
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC | 0.65M | $81K | $359K | 4.44× | 3.7% | +61.4% | 7.29 | -0.04% | 3.1% |
Colorado Springs, CO | 0.76M | $87K | $432K | 4.95× | 3.1% | +37.7% | 7.54 | +0.19% | 3.6% |
Provo-Orem, UT | 0.68M | $97K | $487K | 5.04× | 2.3% | +53.0% | 11.27 | +0.23% | 3.5% |
Ogden-Clearfield, UT | 0.70M | $98K | $438K | 4.45× | 2.9% | +50.5% | 5.94 | +0.19% | 3.3% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-1,615
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.24% of metro population
1,245 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Dane County, WI | 1,245 |
| Rock County, WI | 734 |
| Milwaukee County, WI | 693 |
| Cook County, IL | 627 |
| Sauk County, WI | 623 |
| Columbia County, WI | 513 |
Who lives in Madison
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 36.9
- Owner-occupancy
- 60.8%
- Bachelor's+
- 49.3%
Madison relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 36.9, 60.8% owner-occupancy 49.3% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 42.8% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $86,827
- Median age
- 36.9
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 49.3%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 60.8%
- Vacancy rate
- 4.4%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 42.8%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026