Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
The tech metro that already corrected. Seattle has a $673,500 median home value and a 2.9% cap rate proxy. HPI ran +23.4% over five years (11pp behind the country), YoY is still −2.54%, but unlike SF the air pocket is mostly behind it — net migration is flat at −3,069.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
5.98×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Washington
- 5.13×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
26.7%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Washington
- 24.7%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.9%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Washington
- 3.1%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.08%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Washington
- 0.25%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
3.91
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Washington
- 4.97
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+0.42
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
5.0%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Washington
- 5.0%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Seattle
Seattle is the tech metro that already corrected. Across 3 counties — King, Pierce, and Snohomish — the metro packs 4.00 million residents with a household income of $112,594 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $673,500. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $2,501. The House Price Index ran just +23.4% over five years (Freddie Mac FMHPI) — second worst in the queue, ahead only of SF — and YoY is still −2.54%, but the air pocket is much shallower than the Bay Area's.
The interesting fact is how Seattle compares to its sister tech metro. Both Seattle and SF are Freddie Mac FMHPI metros. Both are dominated by a single tech-heavy county. Both have negative YoY HPI prints. But Seattle corrected early:
- Seattle's −2.54% YoY vs SF's −2.62% YoY — nearly identical magnitude in the most recent quarter
- Seattle's +23.4% 5-year run vs SF's +9.7% — Seattle is 14pp ahead over the cycle
- Seattle's −3,069 net migration vs SF's −25,199 — Seattle is essentially break-even, while SF lost a small city's worth of residents
- Seattle's 3.91 permits per 1,000 vs SF's 1.60 — Seattle builds 2.4× harder per capita
In other words: Seattle hit the same air pocket but kept building, kept its population, and corrected from a healthier base. The 3-county geometry makes the supply story simple:
- King County (2.25M pop, $811,200 median home value) leads with 8,358 building permits TTM — Seattle proper plus Bellevue, Redmond, and the Eastside tech corridor.
- Pierce County (919K pop, $484,400 median home value) follows with 4,119 permits — Tacoma and the southern relief-valve suburbs.
- Snohomish County (828K pop, $644,600 median home value) adds 3,170 permits — Everett and Lynnwood to the north.
Permit mix: 6,072 single-family + 8,220 5+ unit multifamily. 53% multifamily — Seattle is an apartment market, anchored by the Bellevue/Redmond tech-corridor mid-rises (Census BPS).
What's changing: net IRS migration is −3,069 (IRS SOI) — essentially flat. The cap rate proxy sits at 2.9% — tight, slightly above SF's 2.5% but still the second-worst in the queue. Unemployment is 5.0%, a full point above the national 4.0% — Microsoft and Amazon layoffs have left a mark. Inside Washington, Seattle ranks #13 of 13 for 5-year HPI.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Pierce, not King. The $484,400 median home value in Pierce is the only Seattle-area number that approaches workable underwriting. Tacoma, Lakewood, and the I-5 southern corridor are the targets.
- If you're playing appreciation: Seattle is the cycle-stage call. If the recovery is real, Seattle is closer to the bottom than SF — earlier correction, less migration loss, healthier permit ramp.
- If you already own here: Stay. The Microsoft + Amazon + biotech cluster anchors the metro long-term. Watch the next two YoY prints — if Q1 and Q2 2026 stabilize, Seattle's recovery is in.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+23.4%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
-2.5% YoY
$673,500 median home value
Seattle home prices climbed 23.4% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a modest appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change is negative (-2.5%), signaling the market is cooling.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Seattle's index ran from ~244 in early 2020 to ~301 in Q4 2025. The **+23.4% 5-year change** in the card above is the canonical figure (Q4 2020 → Q4 2025) — second worst in the queue, ahead only of SF.
- 02Seattle underperformed its own state by ~5pp — Washington metros pop-weighted ran +28.3% over the same window. The smaller WA metros (Spokane, Kennewick, Olympia) all grew faster.
- 03U.S. metros climbed **+34.3%**. Seattle lagged the country by 11pp — the second-deepest gap in the queue after SF (which lagged by 25pp).
- 04The most recent quarter is still **−2.54% YoY** — falling but not as deep as SF. The 2022 tech-corridor reset hit Seattle early; the air pocket is mostly worked through.
- 05Inside Washington, Seattle ranks **#13 of 13** for 5-year HPI — last in the state. The smaller WA metros (Olympia, Bellingham, Bremerton) all grew faster from a lower base.
Where the value tier sits — top 3 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King County | $811,200 | $122,148 | 6.64× | stretched |
| Snohomish County | $644,600 | $107,982 | 5.97× | stretched |
| Pierce County | $484,400 | $96,632 | 5.01× | stretched |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$2,501
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
26.7% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 26.7% of their income — 3.4 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.9 points above Washington (24.7%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $2,146 | $25.8K | 22.9% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $2,501 | $30.0K | 26.7% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $3,272 | $39.3K | 34.9% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
5.0%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Seattle's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 5.0% — 1.0 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
5.0%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$112,594
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
15,647
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+12.9% year-over-year
3.91 permits per 1,000 residents
Seattle pulled 15,647 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 12.9% year-over-year. That works out to 3.91 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
6,072
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
1,355
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
8,220
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 3 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**King County leads with 8,358 permits TTM** — 53% of the metro's 15,647-unit total. Seattle proper, Bellevue, Redmond, and the Eastside tech corridor are all inside King.
- 02Pierce County (4,119) and Snohomish County (3,170) follow — together with King the three counties account for the entire metro pipeline (Seattle has only 3 counties).
- 03Seattle runs **3.91 permits per 1,000 residents** — above the national 3.49 but below the Washington state median of 4.97. The smaller WA metros (Spokane, Kennewick) are building faster.
- 04**Permit YoY is +12.9%** — modest. Seattle builders aren't pulling permits as aggressively as Detroit (+55%) or SF (+57%); the recovery here is more cautious.
- 05**Permit mix: 6,072 single-family + 8,220 5+ unit multifamily.** 53% multifamily — Seattle is an apartment market, anchored by Bellevue/Redmond tech-corridor mid-rises.
How to read the map
- 01King County has 8,358 permits TTM ÷ 2.25M residents = **3.71 per 1,000** — slightly below the metro average. The urban core is permitting at a moderate per-capita pace despite being the dominant share of total volume.
- 02**Pierce County (south, Tacoma) is denser per capita** — 4,119 permits ÷ 919K residents = 4.48 per 1,000. The Tacoma corridor and the relief-valve southern suburbs build harder per resident than Seattle proper.
- 03Snohomish County (north of King) has 3,170 permits ÷ 828K residents = 3.83 per 1,000 — right at the metro average. Everett and Lynnwood anchor the northern half.
- 04The 3-county footprint is the simplest geometry of any 4M-pop metro in the queue (Phoenix has only 2 — even simpler). All three counties touch Puget Sound; the metro is geographically compact compared to Atlanta or Riverside.
- 05**Build intensity is fairly even across all three counties** — none of them spike like the Phoenix exurbs or the Boston NH-relief-valve. Seattle builds at scale across the urban core and the immediate suburbs without much exurban differentiation.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King County | 2,254,371 | $122,148 | $811,200 | 8,358 | +2.6% |
| 2 | Pierce County | 918,993 | $96,632 | $484,400 | 4,119 | +38.5% |
| 3 | Snohomish County | 828,337 | $107,982 | $644,600 | 3,170 | +6.9% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Seattle by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 2 comparable metrics
Seattle is closest in size to Minneapolis, Boston, San Diego, San Francisco. best in class on Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Seattle is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Seattle | 4.00M | $113K | $674K | 5.98× | 2.9% | +23.4% | 3.91 | -0.08% | 5.0% |
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 3.68M | $98K | $354K | 3.61× | 3.8% | +33.5% | 3.84 | -0.13% | 4.0% |
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | 4.91M | $112K | $611K | 5.43× | 3.8% | +34.0% | 1.88 | -0.43% | 4.3% |
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 3.29M | $102K | $792K | 7.74× | 3.0% | +52.2% | 3.61 | -0.26% | 4.4% |
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | 4.69M | $134K | $1114K | 8.33× | 2.5% | +9.7% | 1.60 | -0.54% | 4.1% |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 4.61M | $86K | $494K | 5.74× | 3.5% | +50.2% | 3.26 | +0.08% | 5.1% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-3,069
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.08% of metro population
22,668 from top origin
Seattle lost −3,069 net IRS returns in the latest vintage — essentially flat at −0.08% of population. The top out-of-metro origin is LA County, CA, but the volume is small compared to Phoenix's California pull. The Pacific Northwest is breaking even.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| King County, WA | 22,668 |
| Snohomish County, WA | 8,315 |
| Pierce County, WA | 7,309 |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 3,488 |
| Thurston County, WA | 2,759 |
| Kitsap County, WA | 2,313 |
Who lives in Seattle
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 37.4
- Owner-occupancy
- 60.4%
- Bachelor's+
- 46.3%
Seattle relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 37.4, 60.4% owner-occupancy 46.3% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 46.7% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $112,594
- Median age
- 37.4
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 46.3%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 60.4%
- Vacancy rate
- 5.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 46.7%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q1 2026 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026