Winchester, VA-WV
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.91×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Virginia
- 3.86×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
22.9%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Virginia
- 22.9%=
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-0.4
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.80%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Virginia
- 3.96%
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.27%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Virginia
- -0.06%+0.33
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%+0.24
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
strong
Permit pipeline
6.22
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Virginia
- 5.90+0.33
- vs U.S.
- 3.52+2.70
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.0%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Virginia
- 3.3%-0.3
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-0.9
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+52.9%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+2.7%
Median home value
$322,600
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,255 | $15,060 | 18.3% |
| 2 BR | $1,573 | $18,876 | 22.9% |
| 3 BR | $1,965 | $23,580 | 28.6% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
3.0%
Median household income
$82,413
What's being built
Total TTM
892
+6.2% YoY
Single-family
888
2–4 unit
4
5+ unit
0
All 3 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick County | 92,007 | $355,000 | $95,603 | 695 | +6.9% |
| Winchester city | 28,103 | $325,900 | $64,648 | 66 | |
| Hampshire County | 23,275 | $204,600 | $60,299 | 131 | +15.9% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Winchester | 143,385 | $82,413 | 3.91× | 3.80% | +52.9% | 6.22 | 3.0% |
| Logan, UT-ID | 148,804 | $77,520 | — | — | +56.8% | — | 3.0% |
| Bismarck, ND | 133,467 | $83,982 | — | — | +33.8% | — | 2.5% |
| Lebanon, PA | 143,258 | $76,350 | — | — | +59.5% | — | 3.2% |
| Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA | 129,480 | $85,474 | — | — | +51.4% | — | 5.5% |
| Monroe, MI | 154,823 | $75,272 | — | — | +44.1% | — | 4.6% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+389
+0.27% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Winchester city, VA | 590 |
| Frederick County, VA | 556 |
| Loudoun County, VA | 493 |
| Fairfax County, VA | 290 |
| Berkeley County, WV | 283 |
| Warren County, VA | 219 |
Who lives in Winchester
- Median age
- 41
- Bachelor's+
- 28.1%
- Owner-occupancy
- 71.1%
- Vacancy rate
- 12.5%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 40.1%
- Median household income
- $82,413
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.