Virginia · Federal data hub

Lynchburg, VA

0.262M people5 counties#5 of 11 in Virginia$67,782 median HHIUpdated April 10, 2026

Investor first look

The numbers that matter most

What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.

moderate

Price to income

3.31×

The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.

vs Virginia: 3.86×-0.55
vs U.S.: 3.43×-0.12

Benchmark

3.31×

▼

affordable

moderate

expensive

0×–3×

3×–5×

5×–7×

ACS median home value ÷ median HHI

comfortable

Rent to income

21.0%

What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.

vs Virginia: 22.9%-1.9
vs U.S.: 23.3%-2.3

Benchmark

21.0%

▼

comfortable

moderate

burdened

15%–25%

25%–30%

30%–40%

(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI

deal-by-deal

Cap rate proxy

4.12%

Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.

vs Virginia: 3.96%+0.16
vs U.S.: 4.35%-0.22

Benchmark

4.12%

▼

tight

deal-by-deal

solid

1%–3%

3%–5%

5%–7%

(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value

shrinking

Net migration

-0.02%

Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.

vs Virginia: -0.06%+0.04
vs U.S.: 0.03%-0.05

Benchmark

-0.02%

▼

shrinking

steady

growing

-1%–-0.1%

-0.1%–+0.1%

+0.1%–+1%

IRS net migration ÷ population

normal

Permit pipeline

3.89

permits per 1,000 residents

Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.

vs Virginia: 5.90-2.00
vs U.S.: 3.52+0.37

Benchmark

3.89

▼

tight

moderate

strong

0–2

2–5

5–10

Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000

healthy

Unemployment

3.6%

Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.

vs Virginia: 3.3%+0.3
vs U.S.: 3.9%-0.3

Benchmark

3.6%

▼

healthy

normal

loose

2%–4%

4%–5.5%

5.5%–8%

BLS LAUS, latest month

Home values

Where prices are and where they've been

5-year price appreciation

+55.4%

homeValues.yearOverYear

+2.3%

Median home value

$224,600

Rents

The rent ladder

Bedroom	Monthly	Annual	% of median HHI
1 BR	$1,033	$12,396	18.3%
2 BR	$1,187	$14,244	21.0%
3 BR	$1,635	$19,620	28.9%

Jobs & income

Labor market direction

Unemployment

3.6%

Median household income

$67,782

Supply pipeline

What's being built

Total TTM

1,020

-0.4% YoY

Single-family

884

2–4 unit

5+ unit

122

Counties

All 5 counties, ranked by population

County	Population	Home value	Median HHI	Permits TTM	YoY
Bedford County	79,761	$276,600	$77,644	276	-2.5%
Lynchburg city	79,166	$211,800	$59,808	213	-46.4%
Campbell County	55,518	$199,200	$62,608	337	+24.8%
Amherst County	31,426	$197,200	$67,298	111	+15.6%
Appomattox County	16,253	$189,200	$62,337	83	0.0%

Peer metros

Similar metros nationally

Metro	Pop	Med HHI	P/I	Cap proxy	HPI 5y	Permits/1k	Unemp
★Lynchburg	262,124	$67,782	3.31×	4.12%	+55.4%	3.89	3.6%
Yakima, WA	256,143	$68,015	—	—	+46.4%	—	7.1%
Amarillo, TX	269,278	$66,571	—	—	+39.5%	—	2.8%
Kalamazoo-Portage, MI	261,426	$70,525	—	—	+50.0%	—	4.2%
Laredo, TX	267,282	$62,506	—	—	+48.0%	—	4.1%
Waco, TX	278,103	$63,880	—	—	+49.5%	—	3.6%

Migration

Where people are moving in from

Net migration

-59

-0.02% of population

Origin county	Tax returns
Lynchburg city, VA	1,335
Campbell County, VA	894
Bedford County, VA	734
Amherst County, VA	418
Roanoke city, VA	251
Roanoke County, VA	233

Demographic backbone

Who lives in Lynchburg

Median age: 40
Bachelor's+: 30.9%
Owner-occupancy: 71.4%
Vacancy rate: 13.3%
Rent burdened (30%+): 40.5%
Median household income: $67,782

This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.