Salt Lake City, UT
The Mountain West metro that just stopped growing. Salt Lake City ran HPI +49.4% over 5 years with strong permits (5.42/1k, +29.6% YoY), but net migration just flipped negative (−1,959, −0.16%). Cap rate proxy 2.85% is tight (same as Portland), median home ,200 expensive. 43% SF / 57% multifamily mix is the most multi-heavy in the queue, driven by the downtown apartment boom. Two counties — Salt Lake plus Tooele.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
5.03×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Utah
- 5.03×=
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
22.1%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Utah
- 19.7%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-1.2
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.8%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Utah
- 2.6%+0.2
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.16%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Utah
- 0.19%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
5.42
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Utah
- 7.89
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+1.93
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Salt Lake City
Salt Lake City is the slowest of the Utah Mountain West. Across 2 counties — Salt Lake plus Tooele — the metro packs 1.25 million residents with a household income of $95,045 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $478,200 — expensive. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,747. The House Price Index ran +49.4% over five years (FHFA HPI) — strong on absolute terms, but Salt Lake City ranks #5 of 5 in Utah for 5-year HPI. Provo, Ogden, St. George, and Logan all ran harder.
The interesting fact is that Salt Lake City is also one of the most multifamily-heavy build pipelines in the queue. 43% single-family / 57% multifamily — the most multi-skewed in the queue, driven by the downtown apartment boom and the Lehi/Draper Silicon Slopes tech corridor. Permit YoY is +29.6% — accelerating fast on the multifamily side. The cap rate proxy is just 2.85% — tight, the same as Portland and well below the 4.4% national.
The 2-county geometry concentrates everything in Salt Lake County:
- Salt Lake County (1.18M pop, $484,500 MHV) builds 6,303 permits TTM = 5.34 per 1,000 — Salt Lake City proper plus Sandy, Draper, Murray, West Valley City, West Jordan, South Jordan. 93% of the metro pipeline in one county.
- Tooele County (74K pop, $391,300 MHV) builds 497 permits = 6.71 per 1,000 — Tooele city, Stansbury Park. The small western exurb across the lake.
Salt Lake City has only 2 counties — the second-smallest county footprint in the queue (after Las Vegas at 1). The relevant submarkets are inside Salt Lake County: downtown, the Avenues, Sandy, Draper, the Lehi/Silicon Slopes tech corridor, West Valley.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −1,959 returns (IRS SOI) — −0.16% of population. After years of strong inflow during the COVID Western migration, SLC just flipped negative. Households are leaving for Idaho (Boise), Nevada (Las Vegas), and Texas as the SLC housing cost stack hit the wall. Owner-occupancy 67.8%, bachelor's-or-higher 37.8%. The metro is anchored by Silicon Slopes tech (Adobe, Ancestry, Lucid, Pluralsight), the LDS Church HQ, and outdoor recreation tourism.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: SLC doesn't pencil. 2.85% cap proxy on a $478K median is one of the worst yields in the queue. The Silicon Slopes tenant base supports the rents, but the math at the median doesn't work.
- If you're playing appreciation: SLC is the wrong UT play. Provo, Ogden, and the smaller Utah metros all ran harder over the same window AND have lower entry prices. SLC bears the cost stack without the relative appreciation upside.
- If you already own here: Hold. The labor market is strong, the supply is heavy multifamily (which won't compete directly with SFR), and the cycle is mature but not over. SLC is the mature Utah core — won't deliver Sun Belt-tier appreciation but has a sticky tech-anchored tenant base.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+49.4%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+2.7% YoY
$478,200 median home value
Salt Lake City home prices climbed 49.4% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 2.7% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Salt Lake City ran **+49.4% over five years** — strong, but **#5 of 5 in Utah** (last in its own state). Provo, Ogden, and St George all ran harder.
- 02**Recent YoY is +2.73%** — moderate, slowing. Not negative like Phoenix but the rocket has cooled.
- 03U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. SLC outperformed by ~15pp — meaningful but bottom-tier within Utah itself.
- 04The takeaway: SLC is **the slowest of the Utah Mountain West**. Strong absolute growth, weak relative growth within the state, plus the migration just flipped negative.
Where the value tier sits — top 2 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake County | $484,500 | $94,658 | 5.12× | stretched |
| Tooele County | $391,300 | $101,846 | 3.84× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,747
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
22.1% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 22.1% of their income — 1.2 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 2.4 points above Utah (19.7%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,456 | $17.5K | 18.4% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,747 | $21.0K | 22.1% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,333 | $28.0K | 29.5% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Salt Lake City's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$95,045
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
6,800
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+29.6% year-over-year
5.42 permits per 1,000 residents
Salt Lake City pulled 6,800 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 29.6% year-over-year. That works out to 5.42 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
2,907
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
241
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
3,652
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 2 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Salt Lake County leads with 6,303 permits TTM = 5.34 per 1,000** — Salt Lake City proper plus Sandy, Murray, West Valley, Draper. 93% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**Tooele County** (Tooele city, Stansbury Park) builds **497 permits = 6.71 per 1,000** — the small western exurb across the lake.
- 03SLC has **only 2 counties** — the second-smallest county footprint in the queue (after Las Vegas's 1).
- 04**43% single-family / 57% multifamily mix** — the most multifamily-heavy in the queue. Driven by the downtown apartment boom and the Draper/Lehi tech corridor (Silicon Slopes).
- 05Salt Lake City runs **5.42 permits per 1,000 residents** — strong, well above the national 3.49. **Permit YoY is +29.6%** — accelerating fast on the multifamily side.
How to read the map
- 01**Tooele County (the small western county) is densest at 6.71 per 1,000** — the small exurb growing fastest by rate.
- 02Salt Lake County (the core) at **5.34 per 1,000** — high for a metro core, driven by the downtown multifamily push.
- 03The two-county geometry compresses the visualization — the relevant submarkets are inside Salt Lake County (Sandy, Draper, Lehi/Silicon Slopes, West Jordan, South Jordan, West Valley).
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salt Lake County | 1,180,643 | $94,658 | $484,500 | 6,303 | +34.6% |
| 2 | Tooele County | 74,032 | $101,846 | $391,300 | 497 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Salt Lake City by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Salt Lake City is closest in size to Hartford, Raleigh, Richmond, Grand Rapids.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Salt Lake City is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Salt Lake City | 1.25M | $95K | $478K | 5.03× | 2.8% | +49.4% | 5.42 | -0.16% | — |
Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT | 1.22M | $93K | $309K | 3.33× | 4.7% | +61.5% | — | — | — |
Raleigh-Cary, NC | 1.42M | $96K | $381K | 3.97× | 3.6% | +56.9% | 12.81 | +0.38% | — |
Richmond, VA | 1.32M | $84K | $326K | 3.86× | 4.0% | +56.0% | 7.58 | +0.27% | 3.3% |
Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI | 1.09M | $80K | $262K | 3.26× | 4.6% | +59.5% | 4.12 | -0.02% | 4.0% |
Urban Honolulu, HI | 1.01M | $104K | $873K | 8.37× | 2.4% | +34.6% | 1.42 | -0.31% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-1,959
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.16% of metro population
4,676 from top origin
Salt Lake City lost −1,959 net IRS returns — −0.16% of population. After years of strong inflow, the metro just flipped negative. Households leaving for Idaho (Boise), Nevada (Las Vegas) and Texas as the housing cost stack hit the wall.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Utah County, UT | 4,676 |
| Davis County, UT | 2,493 |
| Salt Lake County, UT | 1,536 |
| Weber County, UT | 982 |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 751 |
| Tooele County, UT | 743 |
Who lives in Salt Lake City
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 33.7
- Owner-occupancy
- 67.8%
- Bachelor's+
- 37.8%
Salt Lake City young Midwest metro: Median age 33.7, 67.8% owner-occupancy 37.8% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 45.3% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $95,045
- Median age
- 33.7
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 37.8%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 67.8%
- Vacancy rate
- 5.3%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 45.3%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026