Provo-Orem, UT
**Silicon Slopes — the Mormon Tech Valley with the youngest demographic in the queue.** Provo-Orem runs HPI **+53.0% over 5yr** with **YoY +4.96%** strong sustained. **P/I 5.04 expensive (right at UT state median), R/I 18.1% extremely comfortable, Cap proxy 2.34% TIGHT — one of tightest in queue**. MHV $487K. FMR 2BR $1,460. **MHHI $96,745 high**. 2 counties (Utah 666K, Juab 12K). **Permits 11.27/1k strong**, **Permit YoY +42.7% major acceleration**. **70/27 SF/multi**. Migration +1,544 (+0.23% steady). **Unemployment 3.5% healthy**. **Bachelors 43.4% high**. **Median age 25.6 — YOUNGEST in T5 queue (BYU + LDS family demographic)**. Vacancy 3.8% LOW. Anchored by **Brigham Young University** (LDS Church flagship, ~33K students), **Utah Valley University** (largest open-enrollment in Utah, ~46K students), **Qualtrics HQ** (experience management software, $8B SAP acquisition 2018), **Ancestry.com HQ**, **Vivint Smart Home HQ**, **Doterra HQ** (essential oils), **Nu Skin HQ**, **Pluralsight HQ**, plus the Adobe / Workday / Microsoft / Oracle / Meta Lehi tech corridor — the heart of 'Silicon Slopes'.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
5.04×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Utah
- 5.03×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
18.1%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Utah
- 19.7%-1.6
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-5.2
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.3%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Utah
- 2.6%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.23%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Utah
- 0.19%+0.03
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.19
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
11.27
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Utah
- 7.89+3.38
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+7.79
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.5%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.5
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Provo
Provo-Orem, UT is home to 677,964 residents in 2 counties — Utah and Juab. The metro pulled 7,643 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 11.27 per 1,000 residents, 3.2 times the national pace of 3.49. The cap rate proxy sits at 2.34% — tight (one of the tightest in the queue) and the price-to-income ratio is 5.04 expensive (right at the Utah state median). Median household income is $96,745, the median home value is $487K, and the BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 3.5% — healthy.
The structural story is Silicon Slopes — the Mormon Tech Valley with the youngest demographic in the entire T5 queue. Provo-Orem is the heart of Utah's tech corridor and the heart of LDS Church educational and family-formation infrastructure. Median age is 25.6 — the youngest of any T5 metro in the queue by a meaningful margin, driven by the Brigham Young University student body + the Mormon family-formation demographic. The institutional roster:
- Brigham Young University in Provo — the LDS Church's flagship private university, ~33,000 students. One of the largest religious universities in the world.
- Utah Valley University in Orem — Utah's largest open-enrollment university, ~46,000 students. The combined BYU + UVU student body is ~80,000.
- Qualtrics in Provo — experience management software ($8 billion SAP acquisition in 2018, then re-spun out as a public company in 2021).
- Ancestry.com HQ in Lehi — the world's largest genealogy database.
- Vivint Smart Home HQ in Provo — smart home tech, $2B+ public company.
- Doterra HQ in Pleasant Grove — essential oils MLM, $1B+ revenue.
- Nu Skin HQ in Provo — personal care MLM, NYSE-listed.
- Pluralsight HQ in Farmington (Davis County, just north) — tech education / learning platform.
- Domo Inc HQ in American Fork — business intelligence software.
- The Lehi tech corridor — Adobe, Workday, Microsoft, Oracle, Meta, IM Flash, and dozens more all have major Lehi offices. This is the largest tech corporate cluster between Denver and Seattle, and it's why Utah County's economy is anchored.
The county distribution:
- Utah County (666,021 residents, 7,547 permits TTM = 11.33 per 1,000) — Provo, Orem, Lehi (the Silicon Slopes corridor), American Fork, Pleasant Grove, Spanish Fork, Springville, Saratoga Springs, Eagle Mountain, Vineyard, Lindon, Mapleton, Salem, Payson, Cedar Hills. 99% of the metro pipeline. Permit YoY +43.23%.
- Juab County (11,943 residents, 96 permits = 8.04 per 1,000) — Nephi, Mona, Eureka, Levan. Small southern county on the metro fringe. Permit YoY +4.35%.
Construction is 70% single-family / 27% multifamily (5,347 SF / 196 multi-2-4 / 2,100 multi-5+). Heavy single-family bias for the LDS family demographic, but a meaningful apartment pipeline for the BYU + Silicon Slopes workforce. Permit YoY is +42.7% — major sustained acceleration.
Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain in northwestern Utah County deserve special mention — they're among the fastest-growing cities in America by percentage. Both were tiny rural towns in 2010 and are now significant suburbs absorbing the Silicon Slopes commute belt along the I-15 / Pony Express corridor.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +1,544 returns (+0.23% of population) — modest steady. According to IRS Statistics of Income, Provo absorbs in-state migration plus out-of-state LDS families relocating to be near BYU/UVU and the Mormon institutional infrastructure. Owner-occupancy 68.4%, vacancy 3.8% (very low), bachelors 43.4% (high — knowledge-worker concentration), median age 25.6 (the youngest in the queue).
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Provo does NOT pencil. The cap proxy at 2.34% tight is one of the worst cap rates in the entire T5 queue, behind only Stockton, Colorado Springs, and Visalia. The combination of $487K median home value and $1,460 FMR means rents simply don't catch up — you're paying for the LDS family demand premium and the Silicon Slopes payroll premium.
- If you're playing appreciation — Provo is the purest LDS family + Silicon Slopes demographic compounder. The structural drivers are: (1) BYU + UVU enrollment is structural and growing, (2) LDS family formation is the fastest in the country, (3) Silicon Slopes tech anchor is real and growing. Buy and hold for the Silicon Slopes decade. Focus on Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain — fastest-growing, lowest entry point.
- If you already own here — hold and add cautiously. The +42.7% permit YoY signals builder confidence but also coming supply pressure. The 3.8% vacancy means current rent demand is strong. Watch the Lehi tech employment carefully — Silicon Slopes is the load-bearing wall.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+53.0%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+5.0% YoY
$487,200 median home value
Provo home prices climbed 53.0% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 5.0% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Provo ran **+53.0% over five years** — strong Mountain West territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 19 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +4.96%** — strong, sustained. Provo continued growing after the 2020-2022 spike unlike Boise, which gave more back.
- 03Inside Utah, Provo is the most expensive metro by both P/I (5.04) and MHV ($487K) — a tight knowledge-worker market.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Provo outperformed by ~19 points on Silicon Slopes tech payroll + LDS family formation.
- 05The takeaway: Provo is the **Silicon Slopes Mormon tech valley** — the youngest demographic in the queue, anchored by BYU + Qualtrics + Ancestry.
Where the value tier sits — top 2 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah County | $489,200 | $96,877 | 5.05× | stretched |
| Juab County | $369,800 | $89,803 | 4.12× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,460
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
18.1% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 18.1% of their income — 5.2 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.6 points below Utah (19.7%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,265 | $15.2K | 15.7% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,460 | $17.5K | 18.1% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,031 | $24.4K | 25.2% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.5%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Provo's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.5% — 0.5 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.5%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$96,745
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
7,643
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+42.7% year-over-year
11.27 permits per 1,000 residents
Provo pulled 7,643 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 42.7% year-over-year. That works out to 11.27 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
5,347
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
196
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
2,100
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 2 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Utah County leads with 7,547 TTM permits = 11.33 per 1,000** — Provo, Orem, Lehi (the Silicon Slopes tech corridor), American Fork, Pleasant Grove, Spanish Fork, Springville, Saratoga Springs, Eagle Mountain, Vineyard, Lindon, Mapleton, Salem, Payson. **99% of the metro pipeline.** Permit YoY **+43.23%**.
- 02**Juab County** (Nephi, Mona, Eureka) issued **96 permits = 8.04 per 1,000** — small southern county on the metro fringe. Permit YoY +4.35%.
- 03Provo runs **11.27 permits per 1,000 residents** — **3.2x the national 3.49**. **Permit YoY +42.7%** major sustained acceleration.
- 04**70% single-family / 27% multifamily** (5,347 SF / 196 multi-2-4 / 2,100 multi-5+) — heavy single-family bias for the LDS family demographic, but a meaningful apartment pipeline for the BYU + Silicon Slopes workforce.
- 05**Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain** in northern Utah County are among the fastest-growing cities in America by percentage — they were tiny rural towns in 2010 and are now significant suburbs.
How to read the map
- 01**Utah County (the entire urban core) is densest at 11.33 per 1,000** — Provo (BYU's home, 33K students), Orem (UVU's home, 46K students), **Lehi** (the Silicon Slopes tech corridor with Adobe, Workday, Microsoft, Oracle, Meta), American Fork, Pleasant Grove, Spanish Fork, Springville, Saratoga Springs, Eagle Mountain, Vineyard, Lindon, Mapleton, Salem, Payson.
- 02**Juab County (south, Nephi/Mona/Eureka) at 8.04 per 1,000** — small southern county on the metro fringe.
- 03**Provo and Orem** anchor the educational core (BYU + UVU = ~80K students combined), while **Lehi** is the Silicon Slopes capital, hosting the largest tech corporate cluster between Denver and Seattle.
- 04**Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain** (northwest Utah County) are among the fastest-growing cities in America — explosive growth on the I-15 / Pony Express corridor.
- 05**Utah County builds at 11.33/1k vs the Utah state median of 7.89** — 44% above the state average. The Silicon Slopes tech payroll + LDS family formation demand is sustained.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah County | 666,021 | $96,877 | $489,200 | 7,547 | +43.2% |
| 2 | Juab County | 11,943 | $89,803 | $369,800 | 96 | +4.3% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Provo by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 4 comparable metrics
Provo is closest in size to Ogden, Madison, Des Moines, Colorado Springs. best in class on Net migration, Permit pipeline, and behind on Cap rate proxy.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Provo is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Provo | 0.68M | $97K | $487K | 5.04× | 2.3% | +53.0% | 11.27 | +0.23% | 3.5% |
Ogden-Clearfield, UT | 0.70M | $98K | $438K | 4.45× | 2.9% | +50.5% | 5.94 | +0.19% | 3.3% |
Madison, WI | 0.68M | $87K | $345K | 3.97× | 3.8% | +53.4% | 10.22 | -0.24% | 2.4% |
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | 0.71M | $84K | $252K | 3.00× | 4.1% | +41.5% | 7.80 | +0.05% | 3.3% |
Colorado Springs, CO | 0.76M | $87K | $432K | 4.95× | 3.1% | +37.7% | 7.54 | +0.19% | 3.6% |
Stockton, CA | 0.78M | $89K | $495K | 5.59× | 2.7% | +34.5% | 3.12 | +0.17% | 6.4% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+1,544
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.23% of metro population
5,671 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Salt Lake County, UT | 5,671 |
| Davis County, UT | 753 |
| Maricopa County, AZ | 525 |
| Washington County, UT | 471 |
| Clark County, NV | 354 |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 319 |
Who lives in Provo
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 25.6
- Owner-occupancy
- 68.4%
- Bachelor's+
- 43.4%
Provo young Midwest metro: Median age 25.6, 68.4% owner-occupancy 43.4% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 44.2% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $96,745
- Median age
- 25.6
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 43.4%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 68.4%
- Vacancy rate
- 3.8%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 44.2%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026