Waco, TX
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.28×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Texas
- 2.95×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.15
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
23.3%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Texas
- 23.2%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.61%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Texas
- 5.06%
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+0.27
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.09%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Texas
- -0.00%+0.10
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%+0.07
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
strong
Permit pipeline
5.01
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Texas
- 5.01=
- vs U.S.
- 3.52+1.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Texas
- 3.7%-0.1
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-0.3
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+49.5%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+3.2%
Median home value
$209,600
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $996 | $11,952 | 18.7% |
| 2 BR | $1,240 | $14,880 | 23.3% |
| 3 BR | $1,599 | $19,188 | 30.0% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
3.6%
Median household income
$63,880
What's being built
Total TTM
1,393
+46.4% YoY
Single-family
736
2–4 unit
94
5+ unit
563
All 3 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLennan County | 261,090 | $219,200 | $63,888 | 1,374 | +47.0% |
| Bosque County | 18,404 | $184,500 | $69,339 | 12 | |
| Falls County | 17,013 | $97,300 | $55,372 | 7 | +40.0% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Waco | 278,103 | $63,880 | 3.28× | 4.61% | +49.5% | 5.01 | 3.6% |
| Merced, CA | 282,290 | $65,044 | — | — | +42.5% | — | 9.6% |
| Longview, TX | 287,359 | $65,210 | — | — | +54.1% | — | 4.2% |
| Laredo, TX | 267,282 | $62,506 | — | — | +48.0% | — | 4.1% |
| Erie, PA | 270,495 | $61,476 | — | — | +61.3% | — | 4.2% |
| Amarillo, TX | 269,278 | $66,571 | — | — | +39.5% | — | 2.8% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+261
+0.09% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Bell County, TX | 525 |
| Tarrant County, TX | 330 |
| McLennan County, TX | 322 |
| Dallas County, TX | 283 |
| Hill County, TX | 226 |
| Travis County, TX | 207 |
Who lives in Waco
- Median age
- 35
- Bachelor's+
- 26.4%
- Owner-occupancy
- 63.1%
- Vacancy rate
- 11.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 50.1%
- Median household income
- $63,880
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.