San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
The affordable Texas metro. San Antonio runs HPI +41.5% over 5 years (modest by Sun Belt standards), but the cap rate proxy sits at 4.30% — workable — and absorbed +11,576 net IRS migrants. Permits TTM are 10,104 (3.93/1k, well below the Sun Belt average) and 85% single-family. Military, healthcare, and a softer growth curve.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.48×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Texas
- 2.95×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
23.0%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Texas
- 23.2%-0.2
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-0.2
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.3%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Texas
- 5.1%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.45%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Texas
- 0.01%+0.44
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.41
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline contracting
Permit pipeline
3.93
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Texas
- 5.04
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+0.44
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.7%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Texas
- 3.6%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.3
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about San Antonio
San Antonio is the affordable Texas metro. Across 8 counties — Bexar at the core plus Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall in the Hill Country — the metro packs 2.57 million residents with a household income of $74,297 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $258,700 — the cheapest of the big Texas four. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,426. The House Price Index ran +41.5% over five years (FHFA HPI) — well below Austin (+47%), Dallas (+58%), and Houston (+47%). San Antonio participated in the Sun Belt run quietly, and the lower entry shows up in the math.
The interesting fact is that San Antonio is the slowest builder of the big Texas four. 3.93 building permits per 1,000 residents — well behind Austin (13.3), Dallas (9.8), and Houston (7.2), and below the Texas state median of 5.04. Permit YoY is −12.5% — actively cooling. Inside Texas, San Antonio ranks #15 of 24 for 5-year HPI — middle of the pack.
The 8-county footprint is heavily weighted toward Bexar with three Hill Country exurbs:
- Bexar County (2.01M pop, $244,100 MHV) leads with 5,795 permits TTM — San Antonio proper plus Schertz, Universal City. 57% of the pipeline.
- Guadalupe County (174K pop, $285,900 MHV) builds 1,717 permits = 9.88 per 1,000 — Schertz, Cibolo, Seguin. The I-35 corridor toward Austin.
- Comal County (165K pop, $398,800 MHV) builds 1,697 permits = 10.27 per 1,000 — New Braunfels, Spring Branch. The metro's densest builder.
- Kendall County (45K pop, $489,800 MHV) adds 447 permits = 9.85 per 1,000 — Boerne. The remaining 4 counties (Atascosa, Wilson, Medina, Bandera) combined add fewer than 500 permits.
The mix is 85% single-family (8,567 of 10,104) — the most SFR-heavy in the queue, even higher than Charlotte's 75%. San Antonio is a single-family rental market, period.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +11,576 returns (IRS SOI) — +0.45% of population. Top origins are Travis County (Austin) and Harris County (Houston) — San Antonio catches households priced out of the bigger Texas metros. The cap rate proxy sits at 4.30% — deal-by-deal, just below the Texas state median (5.06%) but workable. Unemployment is 3.7%, tighter than the national 4.0%. Owner-occupancy 63.5%, bachelor's-or-higher 31.9% — more blue-collar than Austin or Dallas.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Bexar County is the only Texas big-four core where a 4.30% cap proxy works on the median price. Look at the East Side and South Side neighborhoods — $150K-$200K SFR at the right rent ratio.
- If you're playing appreciation: Comal County is the rental + appreciation overlap. New Braunfels has the densest permit pace and Hill Country migration pull.
- If you already own here: Hold. The pipeline is cooling (−12.5% YoY) but migration is positive and YoY HPI is still +1.93%. San Antonio is the patient Texas play — won't make you rich on appreciation, but won't rip you on entry either.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+41.5%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+1.9% YoY
$258,700 median home value
San Antonio home prices climbed 41.5% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change has cooled to 1.9%, signaling the post-2022 surge has unwound into steady-state appreciation.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01San Antonio ran **+41.5% over five years** — well below Austin (+47%), Dallas (+58%), Houston (+47%), and the Sun Belt rocket metros. The growth was real, but San Antonio is the **least heated** of the big Texas four.
- 02Inside Texas, San Antonio ranks **#15 of 24** for 5-year HPI — middle of the pack. Texas as a whole was a 5-year winner; San Antonio just participated quietly.
- 03**Recent YoY is +1.93%** — positive but moderating. Not in the negative-flip camp like Austin or Tampa, but no longer accelerating either.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. San Antonio beat the national pace by ~7pp — modest outperformance.
- 05The takeaway: San Antonio offers **Texas exposure without the appreciation tax**. Slower 5-year run = lower entry, more workable cap math.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall County | $489,800 | $110,498 | 4.43× | moderate |
| Comal County | $398,800 | $99,015 | 4.03× | moderate |
| Wilson County | $286,300 | $92,461 | 3.10× | moderate |
| Guadalupe County | $285,900 | $93,776 | 3.05× | moderate |
| Bandera County | $249,800 | $69,703 | 3.58× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,426
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
23.0% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 23.0% of their income — 0.2 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) right at Texas (23.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,177 | $14.1K | 19.0% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,426 | $17.1K | 23.0% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,830 | $22.0K | 29.6% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.7%
BLS LAUS · latest month
San Antonio's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.7% — 0.3 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.7%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$74,297
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
10,104
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
-12.5% year-over-year
3.93 permits per 1,000 residents
San Antonio pulled 10,104 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a contraction 12.5% year-over-year. That works out to 3.93 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
8,567
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
33
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,504
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 8 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Bexar County leads with 5,795 permits TTM** — San Antonio proper plus the inner suburbs. The core handles 57% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**Guadalupe County** (Schertz, Cibolo, Seguin) issues **1,717 permits = 9.88 per 1,000** — the densest exurb pace in the metro, well above the Bexar core rate.
- 03**Comal County** (New Braunfels, Spring Branch) issues **1,697 permits = 10.27 per 1,000** — tied with Guadalupe as the metro's growth engine. Hill Country bedroom communities.
- 04Kendall County (Boerne) adds **447 permits = 9.85 per 1,000** — small but consistent. The other 4 counties combined add fewer than 500 permits.
- 05San Antonio runs **3.93 permits per 1,000 residents** — the **slowest builder** of the big Texas four (Austin 13.3, Dallas 9.8, Houston 7.2). **Permit YoY is −12.5%** — actively cooling.
How to read the map
- 01**Comal County (north) is densest at 10.27 per 1,000** — New Braunfels and Spring Branch absorb the suburban growth. Hill Country pull.
- 02Guadalupe County (northeast) at **9.88 per 1,000** — Schertz, Cibolo, Seguin. The I-35 corridor toward Austin.
- 03Kendall County (northwest) at **9.85 per 1,000** — Boerne, the third Hill Country exurb. All three exurb counties are running at ~10/1k.
- 04Bexar County (the core) at only **2.88 per 1,000** — moderate by core-metro standards. The 5,795 absolute permits are big, but spread across 2M residents.
- 05**The pattern is clear: growth is migrating outward from Bexar core into the three north-side Hill Country counties.** Bandera, Medina, Atascosa, Wilson are still rural and barely building.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bexar County | 2,014,059 | $70,571 | $244,100 | 5,795 | |
| 2 | Guadalupe County | 173,828 | $93,776 | $285,900 | 1,717 | |
| 3 | Comal County | 165,201 | $99,015 | $398,800 | 1,697 | |
| 4 | Medina County | 51,432 | $73,462 | $220,000 | 64 | |
| 5 | Wilson County | 50,381 | $92,461 | $286,300 | 120 | |
| 6 | Atascosa County | 49,403 | $69,413 | $157,400 | 263 | +75.3% |
| 7 | Kendall County | 45,376 | $110,498 | $489,800 | 447 | +68.7% |
| 8 | Bandera County | 21,182 | $69,703 | $249,800 | 1 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to San Antonio by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 2 comparable metrics
San Antonio is closest in size to Orlando, Pittsburgh, Charlotte, St. Louis. best in class on Net migration.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. San Antonio is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★San Antonio | 2.57M | $74K | $259K | 3.48× | 4.3% | +41.5% | 3.93 | +0.45% | 3.7% |
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 2.68M | $76K | $339K | 4.48× | 4.5% | +58.1% | 9.39 | +0.40% | 4.4% |
Pittsburgh, PA | 2.37M | $74K | $205K | 2.77× | 5.0% | +42.4% | 2.17 | -0.13% | 3.6% |
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 2.67M | $80K | $319K | 3.98× | 4.1% | +63.8% | 7.59 | +0.35% | — |
St. Louis, MO-IL | 2.81M | $78K | $232K | 2.97× | 4.1% | +46.7% | 2.21 | -0.12% | 3.5% |
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 2.27M | $74K | $401K | 5.43× | 3.4% | +52.3% | 5.87 | +0.45% | 5.2% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+11,576
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.45% of metro population
8,759 from top origin
San Antonio absorbed +11,576 net IRS returns — a steady +0.45% of population. Top out-of-metro origins are intra-Texas, especially Travis County (Austin) and Harris County (Houston) — San Antonio is the affordable Texas alternative for households priced out of the bigger metros.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Bexar County, TX | 8,759 |
| Guadalupe County, TX | 3,330 |
| Travis County, TX | 3,100 |
| Comal County, TX | 2,975 |
| Harris County, TX | 2,411 |
| Hays County, TX | 1,967 |
Who lives in San Antonio
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 35.7
- Owner-occupancy
- 63.5%
- Bachelor's+
- 31.9%
San Antonio young Midwest metro: Median age 35.7, 63.5% owner-occupancy 31.9% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 48.8% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $74,297
- Median age
- 35.7
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 31.9%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 63.5%
- Vacancy rate
- 8.5%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 48.8%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026