El Paso, TX
The military-and-border metro. El Paso runs P/I **2.84 affordable**, R/I **24.3% comfortable**, **cap proxy 5.56% workable**, on a $167K median (second cheapest in queue). HPI +56.7% over 5yr but **YoY +2.18% slowing**. Permits **2.37/1k tight** — well below TX state median 5.04. Migration **−1,171 (−0.14%)** shrinking. 2-county metro (El Paso + Hudspeth). Anchored by Fort Bliss (largest US Army post by area), UTEP, the Bridge of the Americas trade corridor with Ciudad Juárez.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.84×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Texas
- 2.95×-0.11
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.59
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
24.3%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Texas
- 23.2%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
5.6%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Texas
- 5.1%+0.5
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+1.2
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.14%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Texas
- 0.01%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
2.37
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Texas
- 5.04
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Texas
- 3.6%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about El Paso
El Paso is the military-and-border metro. Across 2 counties — El Paso and Hudspeth (El Paso County is 99.6% of the population; Hudspeth is vast empty desert) — the metro packs 867,161 residents with a household income of $58,800 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $167,000 — the second-cheapest median in any T5 metro in the queue (only McAllen at $124K is lower). The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,191. The House Price Index ran +56.7% over five years (FHFA HPI) — solid Sun Belt territory, beating the U.S. metros average of +34.3% by 22 percentage points.
The interesting fact is that El Paso pairs affordability with workable cap rates. The price-to-income ratio is 2.84 — affordable. The rent-to-income is 24.3% — comfortable. The cap rate proxy is 5.56% — workable, the third-best in the queue (behind McAllen 6.67% and Rochester 6.5%). Recent year-over-year HPI is +2.18% — moderate, slowing. Inside Texas, El Paso ranks #6 of 24 by population, #10 by permits, #3 by 5-year HPI — only Austin tier and McAllen run harder on price action. Permits are tight: the structurally-constrained desert geography limits supply.
El Paso is effectively a single-county metro — Hudspeth is too small to matter:
- El Paso County (864K pop, $167,300 MHV) is essentially the entire metro. 2,053 permits TTM = 2.38 per 1,000 — below the national 3.49 and well below the Texas state median of 5.04. The relevant submarkets are inside El Paso County: Northeast (the suburban sprawl), West El Paso (UTEP, the affluent foothills), Lower Valley (working-class), Eastside (newer construction along Loop 375).
- Hudspeth County (3,329 residents) is vast empty desert east of El Paso bordering Mexico and New Mexico. Zero reported permits.
The 88% single-family / 7% 5+ multifamily mix is heavy SFR. Permit YoY +10.1% — moderate acceleration. El Paso's geography is constrained: bounded north by the Franklin Mountains, west by New Mexico, and south by Ciudad Juárez/Mexico. Sprawl moves east toward Loop 375 and Horizon City. The metro is binational — substantial cross-border commerce and family ties with Ciudad Juárez (population ~1.5M, larger than El Paso itself) drive demand patterns.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −1,171 returns (IRS SOI) — −0.14% of population, slowly shrinking. Unusual for Texas (the state median is +0.01%). Fort Bliss rotation patterns + young households leaving for Austin/DFW are the main drivers. Owner-occupancy 63.7%, bachelor's-or-higher 25.3% (low — among the lowest in the queue), median age 33.3 (young). The labor market is anchored by Fort Bliss (the largest U.S. Army post by land area at 1.12 million acres, and home to the 1st Armored Division), University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP), Tenet Healthcare (Sierra Medical Center), the Bridge of the Americas international port of entry, Western Refining, and the maquiladora trade with Ciudad Juárez. Military + education + healthcare + binational trade.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: El Paso works. 5.56% cap proxy on a $167K median is among the best in the queue, the affordability is genuine, and the rent base is structurally supported by Fort Bliss housing demand. Look at Northeast El Paso (the most affordable and military-adjacent) and Lower Valley for $120K-$160K SFR.
- If you're playing appreciation: Limited. The +2.18% YoY says the cycle has cooled, the migration is negative, and the structurally-tight permit pipeline (2.37/1k) means the prices won't break out. Treat any holdings as cash flow, not appreciation.
- If you already own here: Hold. The Fort Bliss anchor is unmovable, the cross-border family demand is durable, and the cheap entry means leverage works. But don't add for appreciation — the cycle has cooled.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+56.7%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+2.2% YoY
$167,000 median home value
El Paso home prices climbed 56.7% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 2.2% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01El Paso ran **+56.7% over five years** — solid Sun Belt territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 22 points and tracking close to McAllen (+56.8%).
- 02**Recent YoY is +2.18%** — moderate, slowing. The post-2022 cooldown is here, similar to Tucson and Bakersfield.
- 03Inside Texas, El Paso ranks **#3 of 24** for 5-year HPI — only Austin tier and McAllen run harder. **#6 by population, #10 by permits**.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. El Paso outperformed by ~22 points — strong compounding from a sub-$170K base.
- 05The takeaway: El Paso is the **affordable Sun Belt + cap rate combo** — strong 5-year HPI plus a 5.56% cap proxy on a $167K median. Limited ceiling on YoY because of the structurally-tight permit pipeline.
Where the value tier sits — top 2 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso County | $167,300 | $58,859 | 2.84× | affordable |
| Hudspeth County | $57,400 | $39,336 | 1.46× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,191
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
24.3% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 24.3% of their income — 1.0 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.1 points above Texas (23.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,013 | $12.2K | 20.7% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,191 | $14.3K | 24.3% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,633 | $19.6K | 33.3% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
El Paso's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$58,800
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
2,053
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+10.1% year-over-year
2.37 permits per 1,000 residents
El Paso pulled 2,053 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 10.1% year-over-year. That works out to 2.37 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
1,800
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
114
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
139
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 2 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**El Paso County is essentially the entire metro** — 863,832 residents (99.6% of metro pop), 2,053 TTM permits = 2.38 per 1,000.
- 02**Hudspeth County** is tiny (3,329 residents, 0 reported permits) — vast desert east of El Paso, mostly empty.
- 03**88% single-family / 7% 5+ multifamily mix** — heavy SFR in the Northeast El Paso, West El Paso, and Lower Valley sprawl corridors.
- 04El Paso runs **2.37 permits per 1,000 residents** — below the national 3.49 and well below the Texas state median of 5.04.
- 05**Permit YoY is +10.1%** — moderate acceleration. Building has been structurally constrained by the desert geography and limited water rights.
How to read the map
- 01**El Paso County (99.6% of metro pop) at 2.38 per 1,000** — below national but the only meaningful permit volume.
- 02Hudspeth County (3,329 residents) builds zero permits TTM — vast empty desert east of El Paso bordering Mexico and New Mexico.
- 03The relevant submarkets are inside El Paso County: Northeast (the suburban sprawl), West El Paso (UTEP, the affluent foothills), Lower Valley (working-class), Eastside (newer construction along Loop 375).
- 04**El Paso's geography is constrained** — bounded north by the Franklin Mountains, west by New Mexico, and south by Ciudad Juárez/Mexico. Sprawl moves east toward Loop 375 and Horizon City.
- 05**The metro is binational** — substantial cross-border commerce and family ties with Ciudad Juárez (population ~1.5M, larger than El Paso itself) drive demand patterns.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso County | 863,832 | $58,859 | $167,300 | 2,053 | +10.1% |
| 2 | Hudspeth County | 3,329 | $39,336 | $57,400 | — | — |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to El Paso by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
El Paso is closest in size to McAllen, Columbia, Greensboro, Bakersfield.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. El Paso is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★El Paso | 0.87M | $59K | $167K | 2.84× | 5.6% | +56.7% | 2.37 | -0.14% | — |
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX | 0.87M | $52K | $124K | 2.37× | 6.7% | +56.8% | 7.96 | -0.01% | — |
Columbia, SC | 0.83M | $66K | $213K | 3.23× | 4.7% | +60.4% | 0.82 | +0.07% | — |
Greensboro-High Point, NC | 0.78M | $63K | $208K | 3.29× | 5.0% | +63.9% | 5.12 | +0.07% | — |
Bakersfield, CA | 0.91M | $68K | $311K | 4.59× | 3.7% | +48.5% | 3.25 | +0.02% | — |
Albuquerque, NM | 0.92M | $68K | $264K | 3.88× | 4.3% | +53.2% | — | +0.01% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-1,171
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.14% of metro population
959 from top origin
El Paso is slowly losing residents on net — net IRS migration of −1,171 returns, −0.14% of population. This is unusual for Texas, where most metros gain. Fort Bliss rotation patterns + young households leaving for Austin/DFW are the main drivers. The cross-border family ties hold the floor.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Do�a Ana County, NM | 959 |
| Bexar County, TX | 487 |
| Maricopa County, AZ | 426 |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 414 |
| Harris County, TX | 306 |
| Dallas County, TX | 261 |
Who lives in El Paso
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 33.3
- Owner-occupancy
- 63.7%
- Bachelor's+
- 25.3%
El Paso young Midwest metro: Median age 33.3, 63.7% owner-occupancy 25.3% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 48.4% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $58,800
- Median age
- 33.3
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 25.3%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 63.7%
- Vacancy rate
- 7.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 48.4%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026