Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.34×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Texas
- 2.95×-0.61
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-1.09
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
24.5%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Texas
- 23.2%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
solid
Cap rate proxy
6.81%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Texas
- 5.06%+1.74
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+2.46
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.11%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Texas
- -0.00%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
strong
Permit pipeline
5.12
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Texas
- 5.01+0.11
- vs U.S.
- 3.52+1.59
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
6.4%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Texas
- 3.7%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+58.8%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+3.0%
Median home value
$120,000
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $866 | $10,392 | 20.2% |
| 2 BR | $1,047 | $12,564 | 24.5% |
| 3 BR | $1,414 | $16,968 | 33.1% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
6.4%
Median household income
$51,334
What's being built
Total TTM
2,158
+23.6% YoY
Single-family
1,581
2–4 unit
175
5+ unit
402
All 1 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron County | 421,854 | $120,000 | $51,334 | 2,158 | +23.6% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Brownsville | 421,854 | $51,334 | 2.34× | 6.81% | +58.8% | 5.12 | 6.4% |
| Shreveport-Bossier City, LA | 391,957 | $54,635 | — | — | +23.9% | — | 3.9% |
| Mobile, AL | 429,312 | $58,119 | — | — | +51.1% | — | 2.8% |
| Ocala, FL | 378,225 | $58,535 | — | — | +60.9% | — | 5.6% |
| Flint, MI | 405,280 | $60,673 | — | — | +49.0% | — | 5.8% |
| Gulfport-Biloxi, MS | 416,839 | $61,266 | — | — | +48.1% | — | 3.0% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-484
-0.11% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Hidalgo County, TX | 758 |
| Harris County, TX | 376 |
| Bexar County, TX | 346 |
| Travis County, TX | 173 |
| Nueces County, TX | 129 |
| Willacy County, TX | 117 |
Who lives in Brownsville
- Median age
- 32
- Bachelor's+
- 20.6%
- Owner-occupancy
- 65.2%
- Vacancy rate
- 14.0%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 44.9%
- Median household income
- $51,334
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.