Johnson City, TN
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.55×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Tennessee
- 3.49×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
24.2%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Tennessee
- 24.3%-0.0
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.43%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Tennessee
- 4.45%
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+0.09
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.12%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Tennessee
- 0.14%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%+0.09
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
4.48
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Tennessee
- 5.48
- vs U.S.
- 3.53+0.94
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.4%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Tennessee
- 3.7%-0.3
- vs U.S.
- 4.5%-1.1
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
balanced buyer mix
Investor loan share
8.4%
2,378 purchase loans · 21.6% denial rate · 2024
Share of financed home purchases going to investors. Above ~15% means landlords are outbidding owner-occupants; below ~8% is owner-dominated.
Benchmark
Investor purchase loans ÷ all purchase loans (CFPB HMDA LAR, annual)
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+75.6%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+4.0%
Median home value
$199,100
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $893 | $10,716 | 19.1% |
| 2 BR | $1,132 | $13,584 | 24.2% |
| 3 BR | $1,398 | $16,776 | 29.9% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
3.4%
Median household income
$56,096
What's being built
Total TTM
935
Single-family
889
2–4 unit
25
5+ unit
21
All 3 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington County | 133,282 | $231,700 | $61,051 | 733 | |
| Carter County | 56,315 | $157,200 | $48,435 | 172 | +11.7% |
| Unicoi County | 17,845 | $168,200 | $50,381 | 30 | +114.3% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Johnson City | 207,442 | $56,096 | 3.55× | 4.43% | +75.6% | 4.48 | 3.4% |
| Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ | 214,229 | $55,799 | — | — | +46.1% | — | 4.9% |
| Florence, SC | 200,040 | $53,874 | — | — | +49.5% | — | 5.3% |
| Las Cruces, NM | 219,870 | $55,663 | — | — | +49.2% | — | 4.9% |
| Yuma, AZ | 204,374 | $60,417 | — | — | +56.0% | — | 12.4% |
| Saginaw, MI | 189,821 | $58,347 | — | — | +54.1% | — | 6.0% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+250
+0.12% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Sullivan County, TN | 965 |
| Washington County, TN | 624 |
| Carter County, TN | 585 |
| Greene County, TN | 266 |
| Unicoi County, TN | 208 |
| Knox County, TN | 142 |
Who lives in Johnson City
- Median age
- 42
- Bachelor's+
- 28.7%
- Owner-occupancy
- 67.8%
- Vacancy rate
- 10.1%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 40.7%
- Median household income
- $56,096
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Vintage |
|---|---|---|
| rent vs buy | HUD FMR + Census ACS + FRED MORTGAGE30US | current FY |