Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
The New England outlier with the highest YoY HPI in the queue. Providence ran +61% over 5 years (second only to Charlotte) AND +5.24% YoY (the strongest recent print of any metro in the queue). Permits are extremely tight at 1.55/1k. Renters are burdened (R/I 35.7%, the worst in the queue) — but that exact math gives landlords a workable 5.15% cap rate proxy. Supply-locked New England + Mass spillover into Bristol County.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.51×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Rhode Island
- 4.51×=
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
35.7%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Rhode Island
- 35.7%=
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
5.2%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Rhode Island
- 5.2%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.8
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.02%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Rhode Island
- -0.02%=
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
1.55
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Rhode Island
- 1.55=
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.7%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Rhode Island
- 4.7%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Providence
Providence is the New England outlier with the highest YoY HPI in the queue. Across 6 counties — 5 in Rhode Island plus Bristol County, MA — the metro packs 1.67 million residents with a household income of $85,646 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $385,900. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $2,550 — among the highest in the queue. The House Price Index ran +61.0% over five years (FHFA HPI) — second only to Charlotte (+63.8%) in the entire queue.
The interesting fact is that Providence runs the strongest recent YoY HPI of any metro in the queue. +5.24% YoY, ahead of Pittsburgh (+4.74%), Cincinnati (+4.53%), and Kansas City (+4.54%). The cycle here is still accelerating. The cap rate proxy sits at 5.15% — solid, well above the 4.4% national figure. The math works because the FMR is so high relative to the median home value: rents are extreme ($2,550 for a 2BR) which gives landlords great gross yields even in a high-priced market. The flip side: rent-to-income is 35.7% — burdened, the worst in the queue. Renters are getting crushed.
The 6-county geometry concentrates the supply pipeline in 4 places:
- Bristol County, MA (577K pop, $421,800 MHV) leads with 953 permits TTM = 1.65 per 1,000 — Fall River and New Bedford, the Massachusetts spillover.
- Providence County, RI (658K pop, $339,100 MHV) is the core but only builds 767 permits = 1.17 per 1,000 — Providence proper plus Pawtucket, Cranston. Supply-locked urban core.
- Kent County, RI (170K pop, $333,900 MHV) builds 392 permits = 2.30 per 1,000 — Warwick, Coventry, West Warwick.
- Washington County, RI (130K pop, $469,800 MHV) builds 256 permits = 1.97 per 1,000 — South Kingstown, Westerly, the URI corridor. The southern coastal county.
- Newport and Bristol RI counties combined add ~225 permits — small affluent counties.
Providence runs 1.55 permits per 1,000 residents — among the lowest in the queue. Permit YoY is +57.7% — massive acceleration from a low base. The 46% single-family / 54% multifamily mix is unusually multi-heavy for a smaller metro — typical of New England density.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −280 returns (IRS SOI) — essentially flat, −0.02% of population. The price climbs are coming from supply tightness, not in-migration. Unemployment is 4.7%, above the national 4.0%. Owner-occupancy 62.9%, bachelor's-or-higher 35.0%. Inside Rhode Island, Providence is #1 of 1 — RI has only one MSA.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Providence works. 5.15% cap proxy on a $385K median is one of the better cap math scenarios in the queue, especially in any metro with this much HPI growth. Look at Providence County's east side (East Providence, Pawtucket) and Bristol County MA (Fall River, New Bedford) for the lowest entry plus extreme rent.
- If you're playing appreciation: Providence is the BEST appreciation story in the queue right now. +61% over 5 years AND +5.24% YoY (the highest recent print) says the trend is intact. The narrative hasn't caught up.
- If you already own here: Hold and lean in. The labor market is wobblier than the Midwest peers (4.7% unemp), but the supply constraint plus the rent burden means landlords keep getting paid. Providence is the New England sleeper that should be on more shortlists.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+61.0%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+5.2% YoY
$385,900 median home value
Providence home prices climbed 61.0% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a strong appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 5.2% is still running hot.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Providence ran **+61% over five years** — second only to Charlotte (+63.8%) in the entire queue. The New England metro that quietly outperformed every Sun Belt sprinter except one.
- 02Inside Rhode Island, Providence ranks **#1 of 1** — Rhode Island has only one metropolitan statistical area, and Providence is it.
- 03**Recent YoY is +5.24%** — the **strongest recent print of any metro in the queue**, ahead of Pittsburgh (+4.74%), Cincinnati (+4.53%), and Kansas City (+4.54%). The Providence cycle is still accelerating.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Providence outperformed by ~27pp — one of the largest outperformances in the queue.
- 05The takeaway: Providence is **the New England outlier**. Tight supply, Boston spillover, and a surprise acceleration story that the headlines never picked up.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | $559,700 | $100,859 | 5.55× | stretched |
| Washington County | $469,800 | $102,478 | 4.58× | moderate |
| Bristol County | $468,000 | $110,926 | 4.22× | moderate |
| Bristol County | $421,800 | $84,198 | 5.01× | stretched |
| Providence County | $339,100 | $78,204 | 4.34× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$2,550
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
35.7% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 35.7% of their income — 12.5 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) right at Rhode Island (35.7%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,943 | $23.3K | 27.2% | moderate |
| 2 BR | $2,550 | $30.6K | 35.7% | rent-burdened |
| 3 BR | $3,057 | $36.7K | 42.8% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.7%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Providence's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.7% — 0.7 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.7%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$85,646
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
2,593
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+57.7% year-over-year
1.55 permits per 1,000 residents
Providence pulled 2,593 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 57.7% year-over-year. That works out to 1.55 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
1,197
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
459
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
937
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 6 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Bristol County, MA leads with 953 permits TTM** — Fall River and New Bedford. The Massachusetts spillover is the biggest builder in the metro, despite being in a different state.
- 02**Providence County, RI** (Providence proper plus Pawtucket, Cranston) builds **767 permits = 1.17 per 1,000** — light for a metro core. The urban RI core is supply-locked.
- 03Kent County, RI (Warwick, Coventry, West Warwick) builds **392 permits = 2.30 per 1,000** — the second tier of suburban RI growth.
- 04Washington County, RI (South Kingstown, Westerly, the URI corridor) builds **256 permits = 1.97 per 1,000** — affluent southern coastal county.
- 05Providence runs **1.55 permits per 1,000 residents** — among the **lowest in the queue**. **Permit YoY is +57.7%** — massive acceleration from a low base, the cycle is finally catching up to the demand.
How to read the map
- 01**Bristol County, MA (the eastern Massachusetts corner) is the densest at 1.65 per 1,000** — Fall River and New Bedford absorb the cross-state spillover.
- 02Kent County, RI (south of Providence) at **2.30 per 1,000** — Warwick and Coventry, the inner suburban ring.
- 03Washington County, RI (southern coast) at **1.97 per 1,000** — Westerly, South Kingstown.
- 04Providence County, RI (the core) at only **1.17 per 1,000** — among the lowest in the queue. The urban core is locked.
- 05**The pattern is supply-tight everywhere.** Even the densest counties (Kent and Washington) are running below the national 3.49 median. New England land use, water frontage, and old-growth zoning combine to keep new supply scarce. The Mass spillover into Bristol is the only release valve.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Providence County | 657,984 | $78,204 | $339,100 | 767 | +79.2% |
| 2 | Bristol County | 576,699 | $84,198 | $421,800 | 953 | +37.3% |
| 3 | Kent County | 170,168 | $91,278 | $333,900 | 392 | +65.4% |
| 4 | Washington County | 129,998 | $102,478 | $469,800 | 256 | |
| 5 | Newport County | 85,442 | $100,859 | $559,700 | 151 | +106.8% |
| 6 | Bristol County | 50,658 | $110,926 | $468,000 | 74 | +184.6% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Providence by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 4 comparable metrics
Providence is closest in size to Virginia Beach, Jacksonville, Milwaukee, Nashville. best in class on Cap rate proxy, and behind on Unemployment, Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Providence is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Providence | 1.67M | $86K | $386K | 4.51× | 5.2% | +61.0% | 1.55 | -0.02% | 4.7% |
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC | 1.80M | $81K | $318K | 3.95× | 4.2% | +50.3% | 2.13 | -0.06% | — |
Jacksonville, FL | 1.61M | $77K | $309K | 4.01× | 4.2% | +54.9% | 7.89 | +0.68% | 4.6% |
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | 1.57M | $76K | $284K | 3.71× | 3.7% | +55.3% | 2.01 | -0.14% | — |
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN | 1.99M | $82K | $377K | 4.57× | 3.6% | +58.3% | 9.56 | +0.31% | 2.9% |
Raleigh-Cary, NC | 1.42M | $96K | $381K | 3.97× | 3.6% | +56.9% | 12.81 | +0.38% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-280
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.02% of metro population
5,105 from top origin
Providence had a small −280 net IRS return — −0.02% of population, essentially flat. The marginal outflow is dwarfed by the price action. Net migration in a supply-locked metro is almost beside the point — Providence climbs because nothing is being built.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Providence County, RI | 5,105 |
| Plymouth County, MA | 3,056 |
| Kent County, RI | 2,877 |
| Norfolk County, MA | 2,817 |
| Bristol County, MA | 2,158 |
| Suffolk County, MA | 1,932 |
Who lives in Providence
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 40.6
- Owner-occupancy
- 62.9%
- Bachelor's+
- 35.0%
Providence mature Midwest metro: Median age 40.6, 62.9% owner-occupancy 35.0% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 45.9% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $85,646
- Median age
- 40.6
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 35.0%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 62.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 8.2%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 45.9%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026