Oklahoma City, OK
The plains metro where everything works. Oklahoma City has the cheapest median home in any T4 metro at $214,700, a 4.52% cap rate proxy (solid, above national), P/I 3.05 borderline affordable, and a 3.6% unemployment rate. Permits at 5.90/1k are strong and accelerating +39% YoY. Net migration +2,558. Not flashy — every metric just quietly works. Energy + aviation + Tinker AFB anchor the demand.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.05×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Oklahoma
- 2.79×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.38
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.2%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Oklahoma
- 20.8%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.1
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.5%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Oklahoma
- 4.9%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.2
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.18%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Oklahoma
- 0.08%+0.10
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.14
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
5.90
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Oklahoma
- 3.26+2.65
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+2.42
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Oklahoma
- 3.6%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.4
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is the plains metro where everything quietly works. Across 7 counties — Oklahoma at the core plus Cleveland, Canadian, Grady, Logan, McClain, Lincoln — the metro packs 1.43 million residents with a household income of $70,499 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $214,700 — among the cheapest of any T4 metro. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,244. The House Price Index ran +45.7% over five years (FHFA HPI) — well above the U.S. metros average of +34.3%, in the upper-middle bucket without the Sun Belt rocket profile.
The interesting fact is that OKC has every box checked. Price-to-income 3.05 — borderline affordable. Rent-to-income 21.2% — comfortable. The cap rate proxy is 4.52% — solid, above the 4.4% national. Unemployment is 3.6%, tighter than the national 4.0%. YoY HPI is +2.49% — moderate, slowing but still positive. Oklahoma City is the rare metro where every metric is in the green.
The 7-county geometry is heavily concentrated in Oklahoma County:
- Oklahoma County (796K pop, $207,800 MHV) leads with 6,750 permits TTM = 8.48 per 1,000 — Oklahoma City proper, Edmond, Bethany, Del City. 80% of the metro pipeline in one county.
- Cleveland County (295K pop, $222,800 MHV) builds 553 permits = 1.87 per 1,000 — Norman (University of Oklahoma), Moore. The southern university county.
- McClain County (42K pop, $233,900 MHV) is the densest exurb at 425 permits = 10.0 per 1,000 — Newcastle, Blanchard.
- Canadian County (157K pop, $230,300 MHV) builds 342 permits = 2.18 per 1,000 — Yukon, Mustang, El Reno. Western workforce suburbs.
OKC runs 5.90 permits per 1,000 residents — strong, well above the national 3.49 and the Oklahoma state median. Permit YoY is +39% — a big acceleration. Builders are racing into the cycle. The 74% single-family mix is typical Sun Belt-adjacent.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +2,558 returns (IRS SOI) — modest but positive, +0.18% of population. The biggest origins are intra-Oklahoma plus Texas and California — OKC catches the budget Sun Belt migrant who can't make Dallas pencil. Owner-occupancy 63.9%, bachelor's-or-higher 33.4%. Inside Oklahoma, OKC is #1 of 5 by population and permits, #3 of 5 by 5-year HPI.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: OKC works. 4.52% cap proxy on a $214K median is one of the better cap math metros in the queue. Look at Oklahoma County southside neighborhoods (Capitol Hill, Stockyards City, near MLK Avenue) and the lower-end of Edmond. Skip McClain unless you want exurban appreciation.
- If you're playing appreciation: Oklahoma County is the volume play. 80% of the metro's new construction is here, builders are accelerating, migration is positive, and HPI is climbing. Edmond is the top-end appreciation play; Norman is the second tier.
- If you already own here: Hold. Migration is positive, the labor market is tight, supply is accelerating fast (which limits the appreciation upside but underpins rental demand). OKC is the everything-works plains metro — boring on the headline but reliable on the numbers.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+45.7%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+2.5% YoY
$214,700 median home value
Oklahoma City home prices climbed 45.7% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 2.5% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Oklahoma City ran **+45.7% over five years** — well above the U.S. metros average of +34.3%, in the upper-middle bucket. Solid Sun Belt-adjacent growth without the rocket profile.
- 02Inside Oklahoma, OKC ranks **#3 of 5** for 5-year HPI — middle of a small state. Tulsa is the closest peer.
- 03**Recent YoY is +2.49%** — moderate, slowing but still positive. OKC did not flip negative like Tampa or Phoenix.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. OKC outperformed by ~11pp — a healthy but not extreme outperformance.
- 05The takeaway: OKC is the **plains metro that everything quietly works in**. Solid 5-year run, not overheated, still climbing.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan County | $234,300 | $82,735 | 2.83× | affordable |
| McClain County | $233,900 | $84,778 | 2.76× | affordable |
| Canadian County | $230,300 | $85,427 | 2.70× | affordable |
| Cleveland County | $222,800 | $74,446 | 2.99× | affordable |
| Oklahoma County | $207,800 | $65,374 | 3.18× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,244
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
21.2% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 21.2% of their income — 2.1 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.4 points above Oklahoma (20.8%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,017 | $12.2K | 17.3% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,244 | $14.9K | 21.2% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,675 | $20.1K | 28.5% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Oklahoma City's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.6% — 0.4 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$70,499
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
8,435
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+39.0% year-over-year
5.90 permits per 1,000 residents
Oklahoma City pulled 8,435 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 39.0% year-over-year. That works out to 5.90 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
6,207
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
398
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,830
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 7 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Oklahoma County leads with 6,750 permits TTM** — Oklahoma City proper, Edmond, Bethany, Del City. 80% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**Cleveland County** (Norman, Moore) builds **553 permits = 1.87 per 1,000** — the southern university county.
- 03**McClain County** (Newcastle, Blanchard) builds **425 permits = 10.0 per 1,000** — the densest exurb pace.
- 04Canadian County (Yukon, Mustang, El Reno) builds **342 permits = 2.18 per 1,000** — the western exurb belt.
- 05OKC runs **5.90 permits per 1,000 residents** — strong, well above the national 3.49. **Permit YoY is +39%** — a big acceleration. Builders are racing into the cycle.
How to read the map
- 01**McClain County (south) is densest at 10.0 per 1,000** — Newcastle, Blanchard. Small county but high-velocity exurban growth.
- 02Oklahoma County (the core) at **8.48 per 1,000** — high for a metro core, includes Edmond and the OKC northside greenfield expansion.
- 03Logan County (north) at **2.78 per 1,000** — Guthrie, Crescent. Slow exurban pace.
- 04Canadian County (west) at **2.18 per 1,000** — Yukon, Mustang. Workforce suburbs.
- 05**The pipeline is concentrated in Oklahoma County.** 80% of all metro permits are in the core county — unusual for a metro this size. The exurbs are smaller and slower than what you see in DFW or Houston.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma County | 795,822 | $65,374 | $207,800 | 6,750 | +42.7% |
| 2 | Cleveland County | 295,060 | $74,446 | $222,800 | 553 | +8.9% |
| 3 | Canadian County | 156,681 | $85,427 | $230,300 | 342 | +25.3% |
| 4 | Grady County | 55,314 | $75,730 | $187,900 | 200 | |
| 5 | Logan County | 49,919 | $82,735 | $234,300 | 139 | +63.5% |
| 6 | McClain County | 42,393 | $84,778 | $233,900 | 425 | +40.7% |
| 7 | Lincoln County | 33,734 | $59,425 | $152,000 | 26 | +36.8% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Oklahoma City by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 3 comparable metrics
Oklahoma City is closest in size to Memphis, Louisville/Jefferson County, Milwaukee, Jacksonville. best in class on Cap rate proxy, Price to income.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Oklahoma City is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Oklahoma City | 1.43M | $70K | $215K | 3.05× | 4.5% | +45.7% | 5.90 | +0.18% | 3.6% |
Memphis, TN-MS-AR | 1.34M | $65K | $228K | 3.52× | 4.4% | +41.4% | 2.48 | -0.18% | 4.0% |
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN | 1.28M | $72K | $236K | 3.30× | 4.2% | +45.5% | 4.78 | -0.02% | 3.1% |
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | 1.57M | $76K | $284K | 3.71× | 3.7% | +55.3% | 2.01 | -0.14% | — |
Jacksonville, FL | 1.61M | $77K | $309K | 4.01× | 4.2% | +54.9% | 7.89 | +0.68% | 4.6% |
New Orleans-Metairie, LA | 1.26M | $62K | $248K | 3.98× | 4.2% | +20.9% | 2.18 | -0.42% | 4.0% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+2,558
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.18% of metro population
8,518 from top origin
Oklahoma City absorbed +2,558 net IRS returns — +0.18% of population. Modest but positive, with the largest origins in intra-Oklahoma plus Texas and California. OKC catches the budget Sun Belt migrant who can't make Dallas pencil.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma County, OK | 8,518 |
| Cleveland County, OK | 5,145 |
| Canadian County, OK | 2,825 |
| Tulsa County, OK | 1,133 |
| McClain County, OK | 926 |
| Pottawatomie County, OK | 887 |
Who lives in Oklahoma City
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 35.8
- Owner-occupancy
- 63.9%
- Bachelor's+
- 33.4%
Oklahoma City young Midwest metro: Median age 35.8, 63.9% owner-occupancy 33.4% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 44.2% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $70,499
- Median age
- 35.8
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 33.4%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 63.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 8.5%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 44.2%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026