Toledo, OH
**The Glass City of the Rust Belt — ultra-cheap with workable cap rate.** Toledo runs HPI **+50.3% over 5yr** with **YoY +4.28%** strong sustained. **P/I 2.64 affordable (one of cheapest), R/I 20.3% comfortable, Cap proxy 4.98% workable**. **MHV $169K — one of lowest in queue. FMR 2BR $1,076 — lowest in queue.** 4 counties (Lucas 430K, Wood 132K, Fulton 43K, Ottawa 40K). **Permits 1.08/1k TIGHT — 3rd-lowest in queue** (Akron 1.16, Springfield MA 1.10). Permit YoY +39%. Migration −726 (−0.11% shrinking). **Unemployment 4.6% softer**. Anchored by **Owens Corning HQ** (Glass City legacy), **Dana Incorporated HQ** (auto parts), **Owens-Illinois HQ** (glass containers), **ProMedica HQ** (largest employer in NW Ohio), University of Toledo, Bowling Green State University (Wood County), Toledo Museum of Art, Port of Toledo (Lake Erie).
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.64×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Ohio
- 2.67×-0.03
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.79
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
20.3%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Ohio
- 21.2%-1.0
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-3.0
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
5.0%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Ohio
- 5.0%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.6
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.11%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Ohio
- -0.03%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
1.08
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Ohio
- 1.63
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Ohio
- 4.3%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Toledo
Toledo, OH is home to 644,547 residents in 4 counties — Lucas, Wood, Fulton, and Ottawa. The metro pulled 697 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 1.08 per 1,000 residents, the 3rd-lowest building rate in the queue (only Akron 1.16 and Springfield MA 1.10 are comparable). The cap rate proxy sits at 4.98% — workable — and the price-to-income ratio is 2.64 affordable. The median home value is $169K and the Fair Market Rent 2BR is $1,076 — the lowest FMR in the entire T5 queue. The BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 4.6% — softer than national.
The structural story is the Glass City of the Rust Belt — ultra-cheap with scarcity-driven appreciation. Toledo earned the "Glass City" nickname because it's been the U.S. center of glass manufacturing since the 1880s. The corporate legacy roster:
- Owens Corning HQ — Fortune 500 building materials manufacturer (insulation, roofing, composites). Founded in Toledo in 1938.
- Dana Incorporated HQ — automotive drivetrain and sealing technology. Fortune 500.
- Owens-Illinois HQ (now O-I Glass) — the world's largest glass container manufacturer.
- ProMedica HQ — the largest employer in Northwest Ohio, a nonprofit healthcare system.
- University of Toledo — ~20,000 students, strong engineering and pharmacy programs.
- Bowling Green State University in Wood County — ~18,000 students.
- Toledo Museum of Art — one of the finest small-city art museums in the country, funded by the glass industry wealth.
- Port of Toledo on the Maumee River / Lake Erie — one of the Great Lakes' busiest ports.
The county distribution:
- Lucas County (430,014 residents, 282 permits TTM = 0.66 per 1,000) — Toledo proper, Sylvania, Oregon, Maumee, Perrysburg Township, Ottawa Hills, Waterville. 40% of the metro pipeline. Permit YoY −4.73%. MHV $155K.
- Wood County (131,564 residents, 199 permits = 1.51 per 1,000) — Bowling Green (BGSU), Perrysburg, Northwood, Rossford. Permit YoY +30.07%. MHV $214K.
- Ottawa County (40,367 residents, 159 permits = 3.94 per 1,000) — the densest county per capita, anchored by the Lake Erie island resort economy. Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Put-in-Bay, Catawba Island. Permit YoY +50%.
- Fulton County (42,602 residents, 57 permits = 1.34 per 1,000) — Wauseon, Archbold, Swanton, Delta. The western agricultural county.
Construction is 85% single-family / 15% multifamily (592 SF / 27 multi-2-4 / 78 multi-5+). Toledo builds almost nothing — 697 permits across a 645K-person metro. Permit YoY is +39% — acceleration off a tiny base.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −726 returns (−0.11% — shrinking). According to IRS Statistics of Income, Toledo is slowly losing population. But like Akron, the supply constraint means even flat-to-negative demand keeps prices climbing — YoY is +4.28%, strong and sustained. Owner-occupancy 63.6%, vacancy 8.2%, bachelors 29.6%, median age 38.0.
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Toledo is one of the cheapest cash-flow markets in the queue. The cap proxy at 4.98% with a $169K median home value and $1,076 FMR (the lowest in the queue) actually pencils — and there's no Florida insurance problem. Focus on Lucas County (Sylvania, Oregon, Maumee) and Wood County (Perrysburg — the affluent southern suburb).
- If you're playing appreciation — Toledo is a scarcity-driven Rust Belt compounder in the same mold as Akron. The +4.28% YoY says the supply constraint is doing the appreciation work without needing population growth. Hold for cash flow + slow appreciation.
- If you already own here — hold and add. The ultra-low permit rate means no supply tsunami is coming. The cap rate works at current levels. Watch ProMedica employment — healthcare is the largest single employer.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+50.3%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.3% YoY
$168,500 median home value
Toledo home prices climbed 50.3% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.3% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Toledo ran **+50.3% over five years** — strong Rust Belt territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 16 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +4.28%** — strong, sustained. Toledo is appreciating faster than most Sun Belt metros and hasn't shown any cooldown.
- 03Inside Ohio, Toledo ranks middle of the state by 5-year HPI — the NW Ohio glass/auto anchor.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Toledo outperformed by ~16 points — strong compounding for a $169K median home value.
- 05The takeaway: Toledo is the **Glass City ultra-cheap compounder** — $169K MHV, $1,076 FMR (lowest in queue), and a nearly 5% cap rate. The scarcity-driven appreciation story is the same as Akron.
Where the value tier sits — top 4 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood County | $214,400 | $73,124 | 2.93× | affordable |
| Ottawa County | $200,700 | $75,728 | 2.65× | affordable |
| Fulton County | $176,000 | $72,866 | 2.42× | affordable |
| Lucas County | $155,200 | $60,095 | 2.58× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,076
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
20.3% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 20.3% of their income — 3.0 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.0 points below Ohio (21.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $820 | $9.8K | 15.4% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,076 | $12.9K | 20.3% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,380 | $16.6K | 26.0% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.6%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Toledo's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.6% — 0.7 points above the U.S. metros average (3.9%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.6%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$63,749
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
697
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+39.0% year-over-year
1.08 permits per 1,000 residents
Toledo pulled 697 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 39.0% year-over-year. That works out to 1.08 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
592
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
27
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
78
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 4 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Lucas County leads with 282 TTM permits = 0.66 per 1,000** — Toledo proper, Sylvania, Oregon, Maumee, Perrysburg Township, Ottawa Hills, Waterville. **40% of the metro pipeline.** Permit YoY −4.73%.
- 02**Wood County** (Bowling Green, Perrysburg, Northwood, Rossford) issued **199 permits = 1.51 per 1,000** — anchored by Bowling Green State University. Permit YoY +30.07%.
- 03**Ottawa County** (Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Put-in-Bay, Catawba Island) issued **159 permits = 3.94 per 1,000** — **the densest county per capita, anchored by the Lake Erie island resort economy**. Permit YoY +50%.
- 04**Fulton County** (Wauseon, Archbold, Swanton, Delta) issued **57 permits = 1.34 per 1,000** — the western agricultural county. Permit YoY +256.25%.
- 05Toledo runs **1.08 permits per 1,000 residents** — **3rd-lowest in the queue** (Akron 1.16, Springfield MA 1.10). The supply constraint is structural.
How to read the map
- 01**Ottawa County (north, Lake Erie islands/resort) is densest at 3.94 per 1,000** — Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Catawba Island, the Marblehead Peninsula. Lake Erie resort and second-home construction.
- 02**Wood County (south, Bowling Green/Perrysburg) at 1.51 per 1,000** — anchored by BGSU and the Perrysburg affluent suburb.
- 03**Fulton County (west, Wauseon/Archbold) at 1.34 per 1,000** — agricultural/small-town NW Ohio.
- 04**Lucas County (the urban core) at 0.66 per 1,000** — the lowest per capita. Toledo itself is a mature urban core with very little greenfield development.
- 05Owens Corning HQ, Dana Inc. HQ, Owens-Illinois HQ, ProMedica HQ, the University of Toledo, and the Toledo Museum of Art (one of the finest small-city art museums in the country) are all in Lucas County.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas County | 430,014 | $60,095 | $155,200 | 282 | |
| 2 | Wood County | 131,564 | $73,124 | $214,400 | 199 | +30.1% |
| 3 | Fulton County | 42,602 | $72,866 | $176,000 | 57 | +256.3% |
| 4 | Ottawa County | 40,367 | $75,728 | $200,700 | 159 | +50.0% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Toledo by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 3 comparable metrics
Toledo is closest in size to Winston, Augusta, Deltona, Wichita. best in class on Price to income, and behind on Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Toledo is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Toledo | 0.64M | $64K | $169K | 2.64× | 5.0% | +50.3% | 1.08 | -0.11% | 4.6% |
Winston-Salem, NC | 0.68M | $64K | $213K | 3.32× | 4.5% | +64.9% | 7.13 | +0.22% | 3.5% |
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC | 0.61M | $67K | $207K | 3.11× | 4.7% | +59.6% | 6.23 | +0.11% | 4.3% |
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | 0.68M | $68K | $287K | 4.25× | 4.9% | +52.0% | 8.03 | +1.20% | 5.3% |
Wichita, KS | 0.65M | $69K | $188K | 2.73× | 4.6% | +49.6% | 4.67 | +0.01% | 3.7% |
Jackson, MS | 0.59M | $60K | $189K | 3.12× | 5.3% | +37.3% | 2.27 | -0.13% | 2.8% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-726
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.11% of metro population
2,034 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Lucas County, OH | 2,034 |
| Wood County, OH | 1,698 |
| Monroe County, MI | 734 |
| Fulton County, OH | 386 |
| Franklin County, OH | 368 |
| Wayne County, MI | 359 |
Who lives in Toledo
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 38.0
- Owner-occupancy
- 63.6%
- Bachelor's+
- 29.6%
Toledo relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 38.0, 63.6% owner-occupancy 29.6% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 40.5% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $63,749
- Median age
- 38.0
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 29.6%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 63.6%
- Vacancy rate
- 8.2%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 40.5%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026