Grand Forks, ND-MN
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.39×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs North Dakota
- 3.52×-0.13
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.04
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
19.0%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs North Dakota
- 17.7%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-4.3
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.65%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs North Dakota
- 3.14%+0.51
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.24%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs North Dakota
- 0.11%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
2.07
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs North Dakota
- 2.97
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
very tight labor market
Unemployment
2.7%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs North Dakota
- 2.7%=
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-1.2
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+34.8%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+4.0%
Median home value
$232,900
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $868 | $10,416 | 15.2% |
| 2 BR | $1,089 | $13,068 | 19.0% |
| 3 BR | $1,515 | $18,180 | 26.5% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
2.7%
Median household income
$68,653
What's being built
Total TTM
215
+35.3% YoY
Single-family
165
2–4 unit
0
5+ unit
50
All 2 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Forks County | 72,927 | $244,200 | $68,450 | 169 | +40.8% |
| Polk County | 31,128 | $211,100 | $69,136 | 46 | +15.0% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Grand Forks | 104,055 | $68,653 | 3.39× | 3.65% | +34.8% | 2.07 | 2.7% |
| Kankakee, IL | 107,421 | $68,325 | — | — | +49.7% | — | 6.7% |
| Victoria, TX | 98,301 | $69,618 | — | — | +37.2% | — | 3.9% |
| Ithaca, NY | 102,555 | $73,012 | — | — | +52.0% | — | 3.4% |
| Fond du Lac, WI | 104,027 | $73,154 | — | — | +63.7% | — | 2.7% |
| Cape Girardeau, MO-IL | 97,622 | $67,267 | — | — | +43.5% | — | 3.0% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-253
-0.24% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Polk County, MN | 238 |
| Cass County, ND | 223 |
| Grand Forks County, ND | 207 |
| Walsh County, ND | 72 |
| Marshall County, MN | 65 |
| Pennington County, MN | 49 |
Who lives in Grand Forks
- Median age
- 33
- Bachelor's+
- 34.2%
- Owner-occupancy
- 57.8%
- Vacancy rate
- 10.1%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 44.6%
- Median household income
- $68,653
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.