Bismarck, ND
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.52×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs North Dakota
- 3.52×=
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
16.8%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs North Dakota
- 17.7%-0.9
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-6.5
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.10%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs North Dakota
- 3.14%
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.11%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs North Dakota
- 0.11%=
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%+0.08
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
2.97
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs North Dakota
- 2.97=
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
very tight labor market
Unemployment
2.5%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs North Dakota
- 2.7%-0.2
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-1.4
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+33.8%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+3.0%
Median home value
$295,500
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,030 | $12,360 | 14.7% |
| 2 BR | $1,175 | $14,100 | 16.8% |
| 3 BR | $1,634 | $19,608 | 23.3% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
2.5%
Median household income
$83,982
What's being built
Total TTM
397
+20.7% YoY
Single-family
360
2–4 unit
32
5+ unit
5
All 3 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burleigh County | 98,443 | $314,700 | $84,948 | 288 | +24.7% |
| Morton County | 33,192 | $249,600 | $79,483 | 105 | +10.5% |
| Oliver County | 1,832 | $217,000 | $76,953 | 4 | — |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Bismarck | 133,467 | $83,982 | 3.52× | 3.10% | +33.8% | 2.97 | 2.5% |
| Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA | 129,480 | $85,474 | — | — | +51.4% | — | 5.5% |
| Winchester, VA-WV | 143,385 | $82,413 | — | — | +52.9% | — | 3.0% |
| Wenatchee, WA | 122,265 | $79,007 | — | — | +46.9% | — | 5.6% |
| Lebanon, PA | 143,258 | $76,350 | — | — | +59.5% | — | 3.2% |
| Glens Falls, NY | 126,994 | $74,953 | — | — | +53.8% | — | 3.9% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+148
+0.11% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Burleigh County, ND | 645 |
| Morton County, ND | 618 |
| Cass County, ND | 182 |
| Stark County, ND | 145 |
| Ward County, ND | 132 |
| McLean County, ND | 86 |
Who lives in Bismarck
- Median age
- 38
- Bachelor's+
- 36.1%
- Owner-occupancy
- 72.7%
- Vacancy rate
- 8.4%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 40.1%
- Median household income
- $83,982
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.