Raleigh-Cary, NC
The new permits-per-1k leader. Raleigh runs 12.81 permits per 1,000 residents — the HIGHEST in the queue, ahead of Austin (11.74) and Orlando (9.39). 18,206 permits TTM. The Research Triangle is still building like a Sun Belt rocket. HPI +56.9% over 5 years (Sun Belt-tier), still positive at +1.20% YoY. Bachelor degrees 50.2% (highest in queue). Cap rate proxy 3.58% (tight) is the price of admission for the highest-velocity build market.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.97×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs North Carolina
- 3.36×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.9%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs North Carolina
- 25.2%-3.3
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-1.4
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.6%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs North Carolina
- 4.4%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.38%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs North Carolina
- 0.20%+0.18
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.34
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
12.81
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs North Carolina
- 7.51+5.30
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+9.33
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Raleigh
Raleigh is the new permits-per-1k leader of the queue. Across 3 counties — Wake, Johnston, Franklin — the Research Triangle's primary metro packs 1.42 million residents with a household income of $96,066 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $381,000. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,750. The House Price Index ran +56.9% over five years (FHFA HPI) — Sun Belt-tier growth, behind Charlotte (+63.8%) but ahead of Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%).
The interesting fact is that Raleigh runs the highest permits per capita in the queue: 12.81 per 1,000 residents, ahead of Austin (11.74) and Orlando (9.39). 18,206 building permits TTM in just three counties. Permit YoY is +15.5% — still accelerating, in contrast to Austin which is essentially flat. Raleigh has the smallest county footprint of any T4 metro in the queue (3 counties) but the densest build pipeline.
The 3-county geometry concentrates almost everything in Wake:
- Wake County (1.13M pop, $422,800 MHV) dominates with 14,447 permits TTM = 12.76 per 1,000 — Raleigh, Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, Wake Forest, Garner. 79% of the metro pipeline. Includes the Research Triangle Park core.
- Johnston County (219K pop, $267,600 MHV) builds 3,036 permits = 13.86 per 1,000 — Clayton, Smithfield, Selma. The southeastern commuter exurb on I-40, the densest builder in the metro.
- Franklin County (70K pop, $240,900 MHV) builds 723 permits = 10.38 per 1,000 — Louisburg, Youngsville. The northeastern exurb.
All three counties run above 10 per 1,000 — Raleigh is unique in the queue: every county is in heavy build mode. There is no slow part of this metro. The 63% single-family / 37% multifamily mix is more multi-heavy than typical Sun Belt — tech worker density drives apartment demand.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +5,388 returns (IRS SOI) — strong, +0.38% of population. The migration is anchored by Research Triangle tech employment plus the universities (NC State, UNC, Duke). The cap rate proxy is 3.58% — tight, well below the 4.4% national. Owner-occupancy 67.0%, bachelor's-or-higher 50.2% (the highest in the queue alongside Austin). The Triangle is the most highly-educated metro in the queue. Inside North Carolina, Raleigh ranks #13 of 17 by 5-year HPI but #1 by permits.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Raleigh doesn't pencil. 3.58% cap proxy on a $381K median is tight. Drop to Johnston County (Clayton, Smithfield) for sub-$300K SFR with workforce rent ratios — those are the most affordable plays in the metro.
- If you're playing appreciation: Wake County is the volume play, Johnston is the value-plus-growth play. The supply pipeline is heavy but so is migration; the cycle has been digesting it well. Raleigh is the kind of metro where you bet on the labor market, not the supply story.
- If you already own here: Hold. Migration is positive, the labor market is among the strongest in the country, and the cycle is mature but not over. Raleigh is the highly-educated, high-velocity Research Triangle — different mechanics than Charlotte but the same upside.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+56.9%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+1.2% YoY
$381,000 median home value
Raleigh home prices climbed 56.9% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change has cooled to 1.2%, signaling the post-2022 surge has unwound into steady-state appreciation.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Raleigh ran **+56.9% over five years** — Sun Belt-tier growth, behind Charlotte (+63.8%) but ahead of Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%). The Research Triangle keeps pace with the rocket markets.
- 02Inside North Carolina, Raleigh ranks **#13 of 17** for 5-year HPI — middle of the pack. Charlotte and the smaller NC metros ran harder. But Raleigh dwarfs them on absolute building.
- 03**Recent YoY is +1.20%** — slowing but still positive. Raleigh is digesting the move at a more sustainable pace than Tampa or Phoenix.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Raleigh outperformed by ~23pp — a meaningful overshoot.
- 05The takeaway: Raleigh is **the Research Triangle that built into the boom**. Tech jobs + universities + aggressive supply pipeline. The cycle is mature but not over.
Where the value tier sits — top 3 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake County | $422,800 | $101,763 | 4.15× | moderate |
| Johnston County | $267,600 | $79,838 | 3.35× | moderate |
| Franklin County | $240,900 | $71,386 | 3.37× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,750
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
21.9% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 21.9% of their income — 1.4 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 3.3 points below North Carolina (25.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,596 | $19.2K | 19.9% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,750 | $21.0K | 21.9% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,196 | $26.4K | 27.4% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Raleigh's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$96,066
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
18,206
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+15.5% year-over-year
12.81 permits per 1,000 residents
Raleigh pulled 18,206 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 15.5% year-over-year. That works out to 12.81 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
11,560
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
259
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
6,387
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 3 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Wake County dominates with 14,447 permits TTM** — Raleigh, Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, Wake Forest. **79% of the metro pipeline** in one county. The Research Triangle Park anchor.
- 02**Johnston County** (Clayton, Smithfield) builds **3,036 permits = 13.86 per 1,000** — the densest exurb pace in the metro and one of the highest in the queue. The southeastern growth ring.
- 03**Franklin County** (Louisburg, Youngsville) builds **723 permits = 10.38 per 1,000** — the northeastern exurb, fast-growing.
- 04Raleigh has only 3 counties total — the smallest metro footprint of any T4 metro in the queue.
- 05Raleigh runs **12.81 permits per 1,000 residents** — the **HIGHEST in the queue**, ahead of Austin (11.74) and Orlando (9.39). 18,206 permits TTM. **Permit YoY is +15.5%** — still accelerating. The build-out continues.
How to read the map
- 01**Johnston County (south-southeast) is densest at 13.86 per 1,000** — Clayton, Smithfield, Selma. Far-out commuter exurbs along I-40.
- 02Wake County (the core, including Raleigh, Cary, Apex) at **12.76 per 1,000** — extraordinarily high for a metro core. Includes both urban core and the northwest suburban-exurban band.
- 03Franklin County (north) at **10.38 per 1,000** — Louisburg, Youngsville. The third growth pocket.
- 04**All three counties run above 10/1k.** Raleigh is unique in the queue: every county is in heavy build mode. There is no slow part of this metro.
- 05**The implication: supply matches demand at a scale few metros can claim.** The 18,206 absolute permits over a 1.42M population is the highest density build pipeline in the queue.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wake County | 1,132,103 | $101,763 | $422,800 | 14,447 | +14.1% |
| 2 | Johnston County | 219,042 | $79,838 | $267,600 | 3,036 | +27.8% |
| 3 | Franklin County | 69,680 | $71,386 | $240,900 | 723 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Raleigh by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 3 comparable metrics
Raleigh is closest in size to Salt Lake City, Richmond, Hartford, Providence. best in class on Net migration, Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Raleigh is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Raleigh | 1.42M | $96K | $381K | 3.97× | 3.6% | +56.9% | 12.81 | +0.38% | — |
Salt Lake City, UT | 1.25M | $95K | $478K | 5.03× | 2.8% | +49.4% | 5.42 | -0.16% | — |
Richmond, VA | 1.32M | $84K | $326K | 3.86× | 4.0% | +56.0% | 7.58 | +0.27% | 3.3% |
Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT | 1.22M | $93K | $309K | 3.33× | 4.7% | +61.5% | — | — | — |
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 1.67M | $86K | $386K | 4.51× | 5.2% | +61.0% | 1.55 | -0.02% | 4.7% |
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | 1.57M | $76K | $284K | 3.71× | 3.7% | +55.3% | 2.01 | -0.14% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+5,388
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.38% of metro population
5,068 from top origin
Raleigh absorbed +5,388 net IRS returns — +0.38% of population. Strong migration anchored by tech employment in the Research Triangle Park, North Carolina State, and the universities. The metro is still attracting high-income workers despite the cycle slowing.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Wake County, NC | 5,068 |
| Durham County, NC | 3,841 |
| Johnston County, NC | 1,954 |
| Mecklenburg County, NC | 1,019 |
| Harnett County, NC | 939 |
| Guilford County, NC | 813 |
Who lives in Raleigh
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 37.5
- Owner-occupancy
- 67.0%
- Bachelor's+
- 50.2%
Raleigh relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 37.5, 67.0% owner-occupancy 50.2% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 45.2% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $96,066
- Median age
- 37.5
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 50.2%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 67.0%
- Vacancy rate
- 7.6%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 45.2%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026