Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.21×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs North Carolina
- 3.36×-0.15
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.22
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.8%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs North Carolina
- 25.2%-3.4
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-1.5
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.42%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs North Carolina
- 4.41%+0.01
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+0.07
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.18%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs North Carolina
- 0.20%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%+0.15
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
strong
Permit pipeline
8.31
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs North Carolina
- 7.51+0.80
- vs U.S.
- 3.52+4.79
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.3%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs North Carolina
- 3.5%-0.2
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-0.6
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+64.9%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+1.2%
Median home value
$193,400
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $908 | $10,896 | 18.1% |
| 2 BR | $1,095 | $13,140 | 21.8% |
| 3 BR | $1,372 | $16,464 | 27.3% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
3.3%
Median household income
$60,255
What's being built
Total TTM
3,042
+42.7% YoY
Single-family
2,360
2–4 unit
191
5+ unit
491
All 4 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catawba County | 161,011 | $218,100 | $64,544 | 1,971 | +23.2% |
| Burke County | 87,799 | $170,500 | $55,684 | 477 | +36.3% |
| Caldwell County | 80,716 | $174,000 | $55,401 | 493 | +133.7% |
| Alexander County | 36,505 | $190,000 | $65,268 | 101 | +9.8% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Hickory | 366,031 | $60,255 | 3.21× | 4.42% | +64.9% | 8.31 | 3.3% |
| Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH | 359,005 | $58,483 | — | — | +45.6% | — | 4.4% |
| Ocala, FL | 378,225 | $58,535 | — | — | +60.9% | — | 5.6% |
| Montgomery, AL | 384,740 | $62,746 | — | — | +45.2% | — | 2.3% |
| Tallahassee, FL | 386,064 | $63,078 | — | — | +47.3% | — | 4.9% |
| Gainesville, FL | 341,067 | $58,946 | — | — | +56.1% | — | 5.3% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+645
+0.18% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Catawba County, NC | 993 |
| Burke County, NC | 735 |
| Caldwell County, NC | 678 |
| Iredell County, NC | 585 |
| Mecklenburg County, NC | 517 |
| Lincoln County, NC | 488 |
Who lives in Hickory
- Median age
- 43
- Bachelor's+
- 21.4%
- Owner-occupancy
- 74.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 10.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 33.8%
- Median household income
- $60,255
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.