Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
**Research Triangle's academic powerhouse — the highest bachelors % in the queue.** Durham-Chapel Hill runs HPI **+61.4% over 5yr** with **YoY +2.96%** sustained. **P/I 4.44 moderate, R/I 25.3% moderate, Cap proxy 3.71% tight**. MHV $359K. FMR 2BR $1,711. **MHHI $81,017 high**. 5 counties (Durham 325K, Orange 146K, Chatham 77K, Granville 61K, Person 39K). **Permits 7.29/1k strong**. Permit YoY +3.2%. **67/32 SF/multi balanced**. Migration −287 (−0.04% essentially flat). **Unemployment 3.1% — near lowest in queue, very tight**. **Bachelors 52.3% — THE HIGHEST in queue (ahead of even Madison 49.3%)**. Anchored by **Duke University** (top-10 nationally), **UNC-Chapel Hill** (top-5 public), **Duke University Health System** (the largest employer in the metro), **Research Triangle Park** (the OG research park), IBM, Fidelity Investments, EPA HQ, Chatham Park megadevelopment.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.44×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs North Carolina
- 3.36×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
25.3%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs North Carolina
- 25.2%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.7%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs North Carolina
- 4.4%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.04%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs North Carolina
- 0.20%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline growing
Permit pipeline
7.29
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs North Carolina
- 7.51
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+3.80
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.1%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs North Carolina
- 3.5%-0.4
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-0.8
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Durham
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC is home to 648,066 residents in 5 counties — Durham, Orange, Chatham, Granville, and Person. The metro pulled 4,724 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 7.29 per 1,000 residents, well above the national pace of 3.49. The cap rate proxy sits at 3.71% — tight — and the price-to-income ratio is 4.44 moderate. Median household income is $81,017 (high), the median home value is $359K, and the BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 3.1% — the second-lowest in the queue (only Madison at 2.4% is lower).
The structural story is the Research Triangle's academic powerhouse. Durham-Chapel Hill is one half of the Research Triangle (the other half is Raleigh). It hosts the highest bachelors degree attainment in the entire T5 queue at 52.3% — ahead of even Madison (49.3%). Over half the adult population has a bachelor's degree. The anchor stack:
- Duke University — top-10 nationally ranked research university (US News #7), ~17,000 students, ~40,000 employees including the Duke University Health System (the largest employer in the metro by far).
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill — top-5 public university (US News #22 overall, #5 public), ~31,000 students. The original public university in America (1789).
- Research Triangle Park (RTP) — the original technology research park, founded in 1959. The park sits at the intersection of Durham, Raleigh, and Chapel Hill, and is home to ~300 companies including IBM, Fidelity Investments, the EPA National Headquarters, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS), Cisco, NetApp, and dozens of biotech firms.
- Duke University Health System — one of the top hospital systems in the country, ~38,000 employees.
- UNC Health — the state's largest academic healthcare system.
The county distribution:
- Durham County (325,101 residents, 3,108 permits TTM = 9.56 per 1,000) — Durham proper, Duke campus, RTP, Raleigh-Durham Airport vicinity. 66% of the metro pipeline. Permit YoY −2.33%.
- Orange County (145,919 residents, 709 permits = 4.86 per 1,000) — Chapel Hill (UNC campus), Hillsborough, Carrboro. Permit YoY +11.13%.
- Chatham County (76,754 residents, 505 permits = 6.58 per 1,000) — Pittsboro, Siler City. Anchored by the Chatham Park megadevelopment — a 7,000-acre master-planned community that is one of the largest under construction in the Southeast. Permit YoY +31.17%.
- Granville County (61,161 residents, 252 permits = 4.12 per 1,000) — Oxford, Creedmoor, Butner, Stem. Northern bedroom county along I-85.
- Person County (39,131 residents, 150 permits = 3.83 per 1,000) — Roxboro, Timberlake. The northernmost rural county.
Construction is 67% single-family / 32% multifamily (3,154 SF / 49 multi-2-4 / 1,521 multi-5+). Balanced build, with the multifamily share reflecting the Duke/UNC student and research-worker rental demand. Permit YoY is +3.2% — modest, sustained.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −287 returns (−0.04% — essentially flat). According to IRS Statistics of Income, Durham-Chapel Hill is barely losing population — the academic anchor keeps it flat despite the higher home prices. Owner-occupancy 61.9% (lower, reflecting the renter-heavy university population), vacancy 8.1%, bachelors 52.3% (the highest in the queue), median age 37.6 (younger — university-driven).
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Durham-Chapel Hill does NOT pencil. The cap proxy at 3.71% tight with a $359K median home value means the Research Triangle knowledge-worker premium is fully priced in. Don't try to cash-flow this market.
- If you're playing appreciation — Durham-Chapel Hill is the Research Triangle academic anchor compounder. The HPI +61.4% over 5 years reflects the structural Duke + UNC + RTP thesis. Buy and hold for the knowledge-economy decade. Focus on Chatham County (the Chatham Park megadevelopment is the lowest entry point with the fastest growth) and Durham County (closest to the RTP + Duke anchor).
- If you already own here — hold. The 52.3% bachelors workforce density and the 3.1% unemployment are the structural floor. Don't add at the cap rate level — but don't sell into the appreciation either.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+61.4%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+3.0% YoY
$359,400 median home value
Durham home prices climbed 61.4% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a strong appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 3.0% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Durham-Chapel Hill ran **+61.4% over five years** — top quartile, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 27 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +2.96%** — moderate, sustained. The Research Triangle has avoided any Sun Belt cooldown.
- 03Inside North Carolina, Durham-Chapel Hill ranks top third for 5-year HPI — the academic-research anchor holds.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Durham-Chapel Hill outperformed by ~27 points — top-tier for a knowledge-economy metro.
- 05The takeaway: Durham-Chapel Hill is the **Research Triangle academic powerhouse** — Duke + UNC + RTP is the anchor, and the highest bachelors % in the queue (52.3%) tells you everything about the workforce.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County | $428,500 | $88,553 | 4.84× | moderate |
| Chatham County | $397,800 | $88,534 | 4.49× | moderate |
| Durham County | $351,700 | $79,501 | 4.42× | moderate |
| Granville County | $235,700 | $70,975 | 3.32× | moderate |
| Person County | $192,800 | $64,927 | 2.97× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,711
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
25.3% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 25.3% of their income — 2.1 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) right at North Carolina (25.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,507 | $18.1K | 22.3% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,711 | $20.5K | 25.3% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $2,117 | $25.4K | 31.4% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.1%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Durham's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.1% — 0.8 points below the U.S. metros average (3.9%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.1%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$81,017
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
4,724
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+3.2% year-over-year
7.29 permits per 1,000 residents
Durham pulled 4,724 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a modest expansion 3.2% year-over-year. That works out to 7.29 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
3,154
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
49
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,521
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 5 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Durham County leads with 3,108 TTM permits = 9.56 per 1,000** — Durham proper, Research Triangle Park (RTP), Raleigh-Durham Airport vicinity. **66% of the metro pipeline.** Permit YoY −2.33%.
- 02**Orange County** (Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Carrboro, Mebane) issued **709 permits = 4.86 per 1,000** — UNC-Chapel Hill territory. Permit YoY +11.13%.
- 03**Chatham County** (Pittsboro, Siler City, Goldston, Chatham Park) issued **505 permits = 6.58 per 1,000** — the **Chatham Park megadevelopment** (7,000-acre mixed-use community) is one of the largest master-planned communities in the Southeast. Permit YoY **+31.17%**.
- 04**Granville County** (Oxford, Creedmoor, Butner, Stem) issued **252 permits = 4.12 per 1,000** — northern bedroom county. Permit YoY −29.41%.
- 05**Person County** (Roxboro, Timberlake) issued **150 permits = 3.83 per 1,000** — the northernmost rural county on the Virginia border. Permit YoY +41.51%.
How to read the map
- 01**Durham County (the urban core) is densest at 9.56 per 1,000** — Durham proper, the Duke University + Duke Health campus, and the Research Triangle Park. 66% of the pipeline.
- 02**Chatham County (southwest, Pittsboro) at 6.58 per 1,000** — anchored by the **Chatham Park megadevelopment**, one of the largest master-planned communities under construction in the Southeast.
- 03**Orange County (west, Chapel Hill) at 4.86 per 1,000** — UNC-Chapel Hill territory, Carrboro, Hillsborough.
- 04**Granville County (north, Oxford/Creedmoor) at 4.12 per 1,000** — northern bedroom county along I-85.
- 05**Person County (north, Roxboro) at 3.83 per 1,000** — the slowest, rural Virginia-border county. Durham-Chapel Hill overall runs 7.29/1k, with **Durham County + Chatham County** as the two growth engines.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Durham County | 325,101 | $79,501 | $351,700 | 3,108 | |
| 2 | Orange County | 145,919 | $88,553 | $428,500 | 709 | +11.1% |
| 3 | Chatham County | 76,754 | $88,534 | $397,800 | 505 | +31.2% |
| 4 | Granville County | 61,161 | $70,975 | $235,700 | 252 | |
| 5 | Person County | 39,131 | $64,927 | $192,800 | 150 | +41.5% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Durham by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Durham is closest in size to Madison, Palm Bay, Harrisburg, Syracuse.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Durham is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Durham | 0.65M | $81K | $359K | 4.44× | 3.7% | +61.4% | 7.29 | -0.04% | 3.1% |
Madison, WI | 0.68M | $87K | $345K | 3.97× | 3.8% | +53.4% | 10.22 | -0.24% | 2.4% |
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | 0.61M | $76K | $304K | 4.01× | 4.4% | +54.5% | 7.15 | +1.07% | 4.8% |
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA | 0.59M | $79K | $239K | 3.02× | 4.9% | +52.9% | 2.17 | +0.08% | 3.2% |
Syracuse, NY | 0.66M | $74K | $175K | 2.38× | 6.2% | +69.4% | 3.36 | -0.20% | 3.8% |
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | 0.71M | $84K | $252K | 3.00× | 4.1% | +41.5% | 7.80 | +0.05% | 3.3% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-287
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.04% of metro population
5,321 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Wake County, NC | 5,321 |
| Durham County, NC | 2,148 |
| Orange County, NC | 1,593 |
| Alamance County, NC | 725 |
| Guilford County, NC | 505 |
| Mecklenburg County, NC | 422 |
Who lives in Durham
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 37.6
- Owner-occupancy
- 61.9%
- Bachelor's+
- 52.3%
Durham relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 37.6, 61.9% owner-occupancy 52.3% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 45.9% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $81,017
- Median age
- 37.6
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 52.3%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 61.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 8.1%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 45.9%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026