Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
The chip-and-capitol metro. Albany runs HPI **+53.1% over 5 years** with **+5.56% YoY still hot** (top quartile). 5-county metro at $268K median. P/I 3.12, R/I 23.7% comfortable, **cap proxy 4.95% workable**. Permits 2.37/1k tight (NE supply lock). Migration **+1,023 (+0.11%)** — positive in upstate NY where most metros bleed. Anchored by NY state government, GlobalFoundries' Malta semiconductor fab in Saratoga County, SUNY Albany, RPI, Albany Medical Center.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.12×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs New York
- 2.85×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.31
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
23.7%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs New York
- 24.0%-0.3
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.9%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs New York
- 5.3%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.6
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.11%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs New York
- -0.12%+0.23
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.08
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline growing
Permit pipeline
2.37
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs New York
- 2.20+0.17
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs New York
- 4.0%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Albany
Albany is the chip-and-capitol metro. Across 5 counties — Albany at the core plus Saratoga, Rensselaer, Schenectady, and Schoharie — the metro packs 902,000 residents with a household income of $86,072 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $268,400. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,702. The House Price Index ran +53.1% over five years (FHFA HPI) — solid upstate New York territory, beating the U.S. metros average of +34.3% by ~19 percentage points.
The interesting fact is that Albany runs hot on YoY. Recent year-over-year HPI is +5.56% — top quartile for current-year, tracking with the rust-belt accelerators (Buffalo +5.70%, Rochester +5.74%, Grand Rapids +5.50%) at the high end. The price-to-income ratio is 3.12 (just over the affordable line). The cap rate proxy is 4.95% — workable. Inside New York, Albany ranks #4 of 13 by population, #4 by permits, #8 by 5-year HPI. The metro is unique in upstate NY for positive net migration — Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse all bleed residents but Albany pulls households because of state government jobs and the GlobalFoundries chip cluster.
The 5-county geometry concentrates growth in 1 county:
- Saratoga County (236K pop, $324,800 MHV) leads with 979 permits TTM = 4.14 per 1,000 — the GlobalFoundries-anchored northern county. Saratoga Springs, Malta (the chip fab), Halfmoon, Clifton Park, Wilton. The fastest-growing piece of the metro by absolute volume AND per-capita rate. Highest median home value in the metro.
- Albany County (315K pop, $277,400 MHV) issues 620 permits = 1.97 per 1,000 — Albany city, Bethlehem, Colonie, Guilderland. Mature urban county.
- Rensselaer County (161K pop, $244,300 MHV) builds 390 permits = 2.42 per 1,000 — Troy, Brunswick, North/East Greenbush. Eastern county across the Hudson.
- Schenectady County (159K pop, $223,100 MHV) issues only 113 permits = 0.71 per 1,000 — extremely tight. Schenectady city, Niskayuna (the GE/Knolls research suburb), Glenville.
- Schoharie County is small (~30K) and rural.
Albany runs 2.37 permits per 1,000 residents — well below the national 3.49 but above the New York state median of 2.20. The 60% single-family / 36% 5+ multifamily mix reflects the urban density compression. Permit YoY +5.5% — modest acceleration. The pattern is asymmetric: Saratoga grows because of GlobalFoundries, the other 4 counties grow slowly because of NY state's restrictive zoning + Hudson Valley conservation overlays.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +1,023 returns (IRS SOI) — +0.11% of population. Upstate NY positive migration is rare. Owner-occupancy 64.0%, bachelor's-or-higher 40.9% (very high), median age 40.5. The labor market is anchored by the New York State government (Empire State Plaza, the Capitol, NYS agencies), GlobalFoundries Fab 8 in Malta (the largest semiconductor fab in the U.S.), SUNY Albany, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Albany Medical Center, GE Power, and the SUNY Polytechnic Institute. Government + chips + research universities + healthcare. Diversified, sticky, structurally tight.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Albany is workable. 4.95% cap proxy on a $268K median is one of the better margins in the queue. Look at Albany city neighborhoods (Pine Hills, Center Square, Helderberg) and the Troy/Watervliet corridor for $180K-$240K SFR with strong rent ratios. Avoid Saratoga unless you have appreciation budget — it's already priced for the chip story.
- If you're playing appreciation: Albany is solid. +53.1% over 5 years with +5.56% YoY is the rare upstate NY rocket. Saratoga County is the play if you can buy near the GlobalFoundries footprint — Malta, Stillwater, Halfmoon, Clifton Park.
- If you already own here: Hold. Positive migration + chip employer + state government + 40.9% bachelor's are durable structural fundamentals. The cycle has runway.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+53.1%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+5.6% YoY
$268,400 median home value
Albany home prices climbed 53.1% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 5.6% is still running hot.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Albany ran **+53.1% over five years** — solid New England-adjacent territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by ~19 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +5.56%** — top quartile, still hot. Albany is **NOT** in the slowdown camp — it's tracking with the rust-belt accelerators (Buffalo, Rochester, Grand Rapids) at the high end.
- 03Inside New York, Albany ranks **#8 of 13** for 5-year HPI — middle of the state. **#4 by population, #4 by permits**.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Albany outperformed by ~19 points — meaningful, sustained.
- 05The takeaway: Albany is **the chip-and-capitol metro** — strong 5-year compounding, top-quartile YoY, supported by structurally tight supply and the GlobalFoundries chip fab in Saratoga.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saratoga County | $324,800 | $99,653 | 3.26× | moderate |
| Albany County | $277,400 | $83,149 | 3.34× | moderate |
| Rensselaer County | $244,300 | $86,663 | 2.82× | affordable |
| Schenectady County | $223,100 | $76,989 | 2.90× | affordable |
| Schoharie County | $182,000 | $71,188 | 2.56× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,702
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
23.7% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 23.7% of their income — 0.5 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.3 points below New York (24.0%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,417 | $17.0K | 19.8% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,702 | $20.4K | 23.7% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,041 | $24.5K | 28.5% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Albany's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$86,072
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
2,140
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+5.5% year-over-year
2.37 permits per 1,000 residents
Albany pulled 2,140 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a modest expansion 5.5% year-over-year. That works out to 2.37 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
1,285
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
78
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
777
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 5 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Saratoga County leads with 979 TTM permits = 4.14 per 1,000** — the GlobalFoundries-anchored northern county. The fastest-growing piece of the metro by absolute volume AND per-capita rate.
- 02**Albany County** (the urban core, including Albany city, Bethlehem, Colonie) issues **620 permits = 1.97 per 1,000** — mature urban county.
- 03**Rensselaer County** (Troy, Brunswick, North Greenbush, East Greenbush) builds **390 permits = 2.42 per 1,000** — the eastern county across the Hudson.
- 04**Schenectady County** (Schenectady city, Niskayuna, Glenville) issues only **113 permits = 0.71 per 1,000** — extremely tight.
- 05Albany runs **2.37 permits per 1,000 residents** — well below the national 3.49 but **above the New York state median of 2.20**. **Permit YoY is +5.5%** — modest acceleration.
How to read the map
- 01**Saratoga County (north, Saratoga Springs/Malta) is densest at 4.14 per 1,000** — the GlobalFoundries fab in Malta is the engine. Halfmoon, Clifton Park, Wilton are all building.
- 02**Rensselaer County (east of Hudson) at 2.42 per 1,000** — Troy, Brunswick, North/East Greenbush. Moderate building.
- 03**Albany County (the urban core) at 1.97 per 1,000** — Albany city, Bethlehem, Colonie, Guilderland. Mature, tight, slow-build.
- 04**Schenectady County at 0.71 per 1,000** — almost no building. Schenectady city, Niskayuna (the GE/Knolls research suburb), Glenville. Built-out and zoned tight.
- 05**The pattern is asymmetric**: Saratoga grows because of GlobalFoundries; the other 4 counties grow slowly because of NY state's restrictive zoning + Hudson Valley conservation overlays.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albany County | 315,041 | $83,149 | $277,400 | 620 | +4.4% |
| 2 | Saratoga County | 236,328 | $99,653 | $324,800 | 979 | +4.0% |
| 3 | Rensselaer County | 160,943 | $86,663 | $244,300 | 390 | +17.1% |
| 4 | Schenectady County | 159,447 | $76,989 | $223,100 | 113 | |
| 5 | Schoharie County | 29,970 | $71,188 | $182,000 | 38 | +26.7% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Albany by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Albany is closest in size to New Haven, Allentown, Omaha, Worcester.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Albany is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Albany | 0.90M | $86K | $268K | 3.12× | 4.9% | +53.1% | 2.37 | +0.11% | — |
New Haven-Milford, CT | 0.87M | $86K | $328K | 3.81× | — | +61.1% | — | — | — |
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ | 0.86M | $83K | $278K | 3.36× | 5.3% | +62.3% | 2.87 | +0.22% | — |
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA | 0.97M | $83K | $248K | 2.99× | 4.3% | +48.0% | 6.76 | -0.00% | 3.2% |
Worcester, MA-CT | 0.98M | $94K | $391K | 4.18× | 4.3% | +54.2% | 1.64 | -0.08% | — |
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | 0.84M | $78K | $368K | 4.70× | 4.2% | +57.3% | 20.23 | +1.29% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+1,023
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.11% of metro population
4,150 from top origin
Albany absorbed +1,023 net IRS migrants — +0.11% of population. Positive net migration in upstate New York is genuinely unusual — Buffalo (−0.18%), Rochester (−0.19%), and Syracuse all shrink. Albany pulls households because of NY state government jobs and the GlobalFoundries chip cluster.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Albany County, NY | 4,150 |
| Rensselaer County, NY | 2,567 |
| Schenectady County, NY | 2,158 |
| Saratoga County, NY | 1,986 |
| Queens County, NY | 669 |
| Warren County, NY | 646 |
Who lives in Albany
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 40.5
- Owner-occupancy
- 64.0%
- Bachelor's+
- 40.9%
Albany mature Midwest metro: Median age 40.5, 64.0% owner-occupancy 40.9% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 43.1% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $86,072
- Median age
- 40.5
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 40.9%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 64.0%
- Vacancy rate
- 10.1%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 43.1%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026