Montana · Federal data hub

Great Falls, MT

0.084M people1 counties#3 of 3 in Montana$66,203 median HHIUpdated April 10, 2026

Investor first look

The numbers that matter most

What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.

moderate

Price to income

3.68×

The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.

vs Montana: 4.33×-0.65
vs U.S.: 3.43×+0.24

Benchmark

3.68×

▼

affordable

moderate

expensive

0×–3×

3×–5×

5×–7×

ACS median home value ÷ median HHI

comfortable

Rent to income

23.3%

What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.

vs Montana: 23.3%=
vs U.S.: 23.3%-0.0

Benchmark

23.3%

▼

comfortable

moderate

burdened

15%–25%

25%–30%

30%–40%

(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI

deal-by-deal

Cap rate proxy

4.12%

Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.

vs Montana: 3.43%+0.69
vs U.S.: 4.35%-0.23

Benchmark

4.12%

▼

tight

deal-by-deal

solid

1%–3%

3%–5%

5%–7%

(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value

shrinking

Net migration

-0.02%

Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.

vs Montana: -0.02%=
vs U.S.: 0.03%-0.04

Benchmark

-0.02%

▼

shrinking

steady

growing

-1%–-0.1%

-0.1%–+0.1%

+0.1%–+1%

IRS net migration ÷ population

normal

Permit pipeline

2.91

permits per 1,000 residents

Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.

vs Montana: 6.03-3.12
vs U.S.: 3.52-0.61

Benchmark

2.91

▼

tight

moderate

strong

0–2

2–5

5–10

Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000

healthy

Unemployment

3.7%

Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.

vs Montana: 3.6%+0.1
vs U.S.: 3.9%-0.2

Benchmark

3.7%

▼

healthy

normal

loose

2%–4%

4%–5.5%

5.5%–8%

BLS LAUS, latest month

Home values

Where prices are and where they've been

5-year price appreciation

+63.6%

homeValues.yearOverYear

-0.1%

Median home value

$243,300

Rents

The rent ladder

Bedroom	Monthly	Annual	% of median HHI
1 BR	$979	$11,748	17.7%
2 BR	$1,284	$15,408	23.3%
3 BR	$1,786	$21,432	32.4%

Jobs & income

Labor market direction

Unemployment

3.7%

Median household income

$66,203

Supply pipeline

What's being built

Total TTM

246

+39.8% YoY

Single-family

148

2–4 unit

5+ unit

Counties

All 1 counties, ranked by population

County	Population	Home value	Median HHI	Permits TTM	YoY
Cascade County	84,423	$243,300	$66,203	246	+39.8%

Peer metros

Similar metros nationally

Metro	Pop	Med HHI	P/I	Cap proxy	HPI 5y	Permits/1k	Unemp
★Great Falls	84,423	$66,203	3.68×	4.12%	+63.6%	2.91	3.7%
Elmira, NY	83,584	$63,469	—	—	+41.1%	—	3.7%
Kokomo, IN	83,452	$62,496	—	—	+58.4%	—	4.0%
Bloomsburg-Berwick, PA	83,089	$61,992	—	—	—	—	—
Casper, WY	79,506	$71,247	—	—	+39.0%	—	3.7%
Hinesville, GA	82,354	$60,329	—	—	+67.8%	—	3.7%

Migration

Where people are moving in from

Net migration

-13

-0.02% of population

Origin county	Tax returns
Lewis and Clark County, MT	101
Missoula County, MT	90
Gallatin County, MT	88
Yellowstone County, MT	69
Flathead County, MT	61
Teton County, MT	46

Demographic backbone

Who lives in Great Falls

Median age: 38
Bachelor's+: 28.7%
Owner-occupancy: 70.2%
Vacancy rate: 11.1%
Rent burdened (30%+): 40.0%
Median household income: $66,203

This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.