Rochester, MN
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.17×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Minnesota
- 3.36×-0.19
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.26
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
18.8%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Minnesota
- 19.1%-0.3
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-4.5
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.86%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Minnesota
- 3.76%+0.09
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.20%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Minnesota
- -0.20%=
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
3.32
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Minnesota
- 3.32=
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.3%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Minnesota
- 4.0%-0.7
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-0.6
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+39.2%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+3.9%
Median home value
$284,600
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,189 | $14,268 | 15.9% |
| 2 BR | $1,407 | $16,884 | 18.8% |
| 3 BR | $1,957 | $23,484 | 26.2% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
3.3%
Median household income
$89,675
What's being built
Total TTM
751
+8.9% YoY
Single-family
483
2–4 unit
12
5+ unit
256
All 4 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olmsted County | 162,307 | $304,500 | $93,494 | 543 | +8.6% |
| Wabasha County | 21,460 | $245,800 | $80,133 | 45 | -8.2% |
| Fillmore County | 21,251 | $204,000 | $75,225 | 67 | +24.1% |
| Dodge County | 20,893 | $267,500 | $92,943 | 96 | +7.9% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Rochester | 225,911 | $89,675 | 3.17× | 3.86% | +39.2% | 3.32 | 3.3% |
| Burlington-South Burlington, VT | 225,745 | $90,911 | — | — | +56.9% | — | 2.3% |
| Charlottesville, VA | 221,648 | $90,552 | — | — | +52.2% | — | 2.9% |
| Barnstable Town, MA | 229,436 | $94,452 | — | — | +63.1% | — | 5.8% |
| Appleton, WI | 242,972 | $83,919 | — | — | +60.8% | — | 2.6% |
| Bellingham, WA | 226,523 | $80,989 | — | — | +49.5% | — | 5.2% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-445
-0.20% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Olmsted County, MN | 573 |
| Goodhue County, MN | 303 |
| Hennepin County, MN | 301 |
| Winona County, MN | 247 |
| Dodge County, MN | 194 |
| Mower County, MN | 193 |
Who lives in Rochester
- Median age
- 39
- Bachelor's+
- 42.3%
- Owner-occupancy
- 74.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 6.2%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 44.0%
- Median household income
- $89,675
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.