Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
The unsung Midwest balance metro. Minneapolis-St. Paul has a $354,400 median home value, comfortable rents (R/I 20.9%), the highest tied owner-occupancy in queue (70.9%), and the best YoY HPI print of any major metro at +2.88%. 14,113 permits across 15 counties — including 3 in Wisconsin.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.61×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Minnesota
- 3.36×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
20.9%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Minnesota
- 19.1%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.4
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.8%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Minnesota
- 3.8%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.13%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Minnesota
- -0.17%+0.03
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
3.84
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Minnesota
- 3.15+0.68
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+0.35
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.0%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Minnesota
- 4.0%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%=
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Minneapolis
The Twin Cities are the unsung Midwest balance metro. Across 15 counties — 13 in Minnesota plus St. Croix and Pierce in Wisconsin — the metro packs 3.68 million residents with a household income of $98,180 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $354,400. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,709. The House Price Index ran +33.5% over five years (FHFA HPI) — running essentially even with the national pace — and YoY is +2.88%, the best recent print of any major metro in the queue.
The interesting fact is how little stands out and how much of it is in the same direction. While Atlanta, Dallas, SF, Seattle, and Boston have all flipped negative or barely turned positive on the most recent YoY, Minneapolis is accelerating. The cap rate proxy is 3.8% (tight) but rent-to-income is 20.9% (comfortable) — second-most-affordable in the queue after Detroit. Owner-occupancy is 70.9% — tied with Detroit for the highest in the queue. The 15-county geometry covers 13 Minnesota counties plus two Wisconsin spillover counties:
- Hennepin County (1.27M pop, $376,500 median home value) leads with 3,947 building permits TTM — Minneapolis proper plus Bloomington, Edina, and Maple Grove.
- Dakota (439K pop) and Washington (269K pop) follow with 2,254 and 2,185 permits — the southern and eastern SFR suburbs.
- Wright, Carver, Scott, and Anoka form a four-exurb tier from 758-1,110 permits each.
- St. Croix and Pierce, WI combine for 721 permits — Hudson and River Falls are the cross-state-line relief valves.
Minneapolis runs 3.84 permits per 1,000 residents — above the Minnesota state median of 3.15 and above the national 3.49. Permit YoY is +18.7%, a solid post-2023 ramp.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −4,897 returns (IRS SOI) — small relative to a 3.7M population (just −0.13%). All top origins are inside Minnesota. The cap rate proxy sits at 3.8% — tight, right at the Minnesota state median. Unemployment is 4.0%, exactly at the national rate. 44.9% bachelor's-or-higher workforce. Inside Minnesota, Minneapolis ranks #5 of 5 for 5-year HPI — last in a tight band.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Minneapolis is closer to working than the coastal metros. The 3.8% cap proxy doesn't pencil at the median, but Ramsey County's $304,900 median home value is the affordable inner ring — St. Paul, Maplewood, Roseville. The Wisconsin spillover counties (Hudson, River Falls) are the outer ring.
- If you're playing appreciation: Minneapolis is the trend-positive metro. While most major queue metros have stalled, the Twin Cities are still posting +2.88% YoY — the best recent print in the cohort. The structural high education + low unemployment + steady labor market combination keeps the trajectory.
- If you already own here: Stay. Permits are ramping +18.7%, the labor market is at the national average, and the metro is the only one in the queue that hasn't shown a YoY softness signal.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+33.5%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+2.9% YoY
$354,400 median home value
Minneapolis home prices climbed 33.5% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a modest appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 2.9% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Minneapolis's index ran from ~234 in early 2020 to ~313 in Q4 2025. The **+33.5% 5-year change** in the card above is the canonical figure (Q4 2020 → Q4 2025) — running essentially even with the national pace.
- 02The Minnesota state line tracks Minneapolis closely — Minneapolis is ~67% of MN's metro population, so the state-weighted average is dominated by the Twin Cities.
- 03U.S. metros climbed **+34.3%** over the same window. Minneapolis ran roughly even with the country — neither the over-shoot of the Sun Belt growth metros nor the under-shoot of the coastal tech metros.
- 04The most recent quarter is **+2.88% YoY** — **the best recent print of any major metro in the queue**. While Atlanta, Dallas, SF, Seattle, and Boston have flipped negative or barely turned positive, the Twin Cities are accelerating.
- 05Inside Minnesota, Minneapolis ranks **#5 of 5** for 5-year HPI — last in the state by a small margin. The smaller MN metros (Rochester, Duluth, St. Cloud, Mankato) all grew slightly faster from a lower base.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carver County | $426,900 | $123,144 | 3.47× | moderate |
| Washington County | $400,900 | $114,457 | 3.50× | moderate |
| Scott County | $393,500 | $120,247 | 3.27× | moderate |
| Hennepin County | $376,500 | $96,339 | 3.91× | moderate |
| Dakota County | $362,100 | $105,212 | 3.44× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,709
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
20.9% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 20.9% of their income — 2.4 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.8 points above Minnesota (19.1%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,405 | $16.9K | 17.2% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,709 | $20.5K | 20.9% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,262 | $27.1K | 27.6% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.0%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Minneapolis's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.0% — 0.0 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.0%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$98,180
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
14,113
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+18.7% year-over-year
3.84 permits per 1,000 residents
Minneapolis pulled 14,113 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 18.7% year-over-year. That works out to 3.84 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
8,807
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
248
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
5,058
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 15 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Hennepin County leads with 3,947 permits TTM** — 28% of the metro's 14,113-unit total. Minneapolis proper plus Bloomington, Edina, Plymouth, and Maple Grove anchor the central county.
- 02Dakota (2,254) and Washington (2,185) follow as the **second-and-third-largest builders** — the southern and eastern suburbs are where the bulk of new SFR construction lands.
- 03Wright (1,110), Carver (863), Scott (831), and Anoka (758) form the next tier — exurbs in every direction from the Twin Cities core.
- 04**2 Wisconsin counties contribute 721 permits combined** — St. Croix (439) and Pierce (282). Hudson and River Falls WI are the cross-state-line relief valves for priced-out Twin Cities households.
- 05Minneapolis runs **3.84 permits per 1,000 residents** — above the Minnesota state median of 3.15 and above the national 3.49. **Permit YoY is +18.7%** — solid post-2023 ramp.
How to read the map
- 01Hennepin County (Minneapolis proper) has 3,947 permits TTM ÷ 1.27M residents = **3.11 per 1,000** — slightly below the metro average. The urban core absorbs the most volume but the per-capita pace is moderate.
- 02**The southern and eastern exurbs are the densest per capita.** Carver County (107K pop, 863 permits = 8.05 per 1,000) and Wright County (143K pop, 1,110 permits = 7.79 per 1,000) are the highest-intensity counties in the metro.
- 03Washington County (269K pop, 2,185 permits = 8.13 per 1,000) is a mid-volume county that builds at a high per-capita rate — Stillwater, Woodbury, and the eastern suburbs.
- 04The 15-county footprint includes **2 Wisconsin counties** (St. Croix and Pierce). Hudson and River Falls WI are part of the Twin Cities housing market across the St. Croix River.
- 05**The growth ring is broad.** Unlike Phoenix (concentrated 2-county) or Boston (compact 7-county), Minneapolis has 15 counties that all permit at meaningful levels — the Twin Cities sprawl is geographically wide.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hennepin County | 1,270,787 | $96,339 | $376,500 | 3,947 | +2.5% |
| 2 | Ramsey County | 547,202 | $81,004 | $304,900 | 527 | |
| 3 | Dakota County | 439,179 | $105,212 | $362,100 | 2,254 | +7.5% |
| 4 | Anoka County | 363,985 | $98,764 | $325,800 | 758 | |
| 5 | Washington County | 268,651 | $114,457 | $400,900 | 2,185 | +75.4% |
| 6 | Scott County | 151,347 | $120,247 | $393,500 | 831 | +21.3% |
| 7 | Wright County | 142,543 | $106,666 | $332,800 | 1,110 | |
| 8 | Carver County | 107,216 | $123,144 | $426,900 | 863 | +57.8% |
| 9 | Sherburne County | 97,820 | $102,965 | $332,700 | 273 | +0.4% |
| 10 | St. Croix County | 93,752 | $102,482 | $349,700 | 439 | +18.0% |
| 11 | Chisago County | 56,927 | $98,260 | $326,600 | 243 | |
| 12 | Pierce County | 42,187 | $88,802 | $308,600 | 282 | +85.5% |
| 13 | Isanti County | 41,257 | $86,573 | $283,200 | 233 | +50.3% |
| 14 | Le Sueur County | 28,795 | $90,218 | $287,700 | 69 | +25.4% |
| 15 | Mille Lacs County | 26,680 | $71,455 | $237,500 | 99 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Minneapolis by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 2 comparable metrics
Minneapolis is closest in size to San Diego, Seattle, Denver, Baltimore. best in class on Price to income.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Minneapolis is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Minneapolis | 3.68M | $98K | $354K | 3.61× | 3.8% | +33.5% | 3.84 | -0.13% | 4.0% |
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 3.29M | $102K | $792K | 7.74× | 3.0% | +52.2% | 3.61 | -0.26% | 4.4% |
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 4.00M | $113K | $674K | 5.98× | 2.9% | +23.4% | 3.91 | -0.08% | 5.0% |
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | 2.96M | $102K | $570K | 5.57× | 2.9% | +35.6% | 5.27 | +0.21% | 3.6% |
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | 2.84M | $97K | $373K | 3.84× | 3.9% | +38.3% | 2.17 | -0.17% | 3.6% |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 4.61M | $86K | $494K | 5.74× | 3.5% | +50.2% | 3.26 | +0.08% | 5.1% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-4,897
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.13% of metro population
22,397 from top origin
Minneapolis lost −4,897 net IRS returns — small relative to a 3.7M population (just −0.13%). The top out-migration origins are all inside Minnesota (Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Anoka, Washington), so the exits are intra-state, not the Sun Belt flight narrative.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Hennepin County, MN | 22,397 |
| Ramsey County, MN | 15,524 |
| Dakota County, MN | 8,475 |
| Anoka County, MN | 8,049 |
| Washington County, MN | 6,038 |
| Scott County, MN | 3,039 |
Who lives in Minneapolis
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 37.8
- Owner-occupancy
- 70.9%
- Bachelor's+
- 44.9%
Minneapolis relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 37.8, 70.9% owner-occupancy 44.9% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 45.9% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $98,180
- Median age
- 37.8
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 44.9%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 70.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 4.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 45.9%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026