Duluth, MN-WI
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.94×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Minnesota
- 3.36×-0.42
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.49
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
20.8%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Minnesota
- 19.1%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.5
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.60%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Minnesota
- 3.76%+0.84
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+0.25
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.02%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Minnesota
- -0.20%+0.22
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
2.22
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Minnesota
- 3.32
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.9%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Minnesota
- 4.0%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+56.4%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+7.1%
Median home value
$208,900
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $978 | $11,736 | 16.5% |
| 2 BR | $1,232 | $14,784 | 20.8% |
| 3 BR | $1,689 | $20,268 | 28.5% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
4.9%
Median household income
$71,067
What's being built
Total TTM
647
Single-family
429
2–4 unit
12
5+ unit
206
All 3 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis County | 200,122 | $208,500 | $69,455 | 421 | |
| Douglas County | 44,092 | $190,400 | $72,579 | 75 | |
| Carlton County | 36,362 | $232,000 | $80,042 | 151 | +43.8% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Duluth | 291,491 | $71,067 | 2.94× | 4.60% | +56.4% | 2.22 | 4.9% |
| Utica-Rome, NY | 291,348 | $68,830 | — | — | +58.7% | — | 4.0% |
| Wilmington, NC | 289,726 | $73,687 | — | — | +70.7% | — | 3.4% |
| Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV | 295,165 | $75,473 | — | — | +50.6% | — | 3.9% |
| Longview, TX | 287,359 | $65,210 | — | — | +54.1% | — | 4.2% |
| Evansville, IN-KY | 313,961 | $67,671 | — | — | +46.5% | — | 2.6% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+58
+0.02% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| St. Louis County, MN | 734 |
| Hennepin County, MN | 458 |
| Douglas County, WI | 356 |
| Carlton County, MN | 338 |
| Ramsey County, MN | 219 |
| Itasca County, MN | 153 |
Who lives in Duluth
- Median age
- 42
- Bachelor's+
- 30.8%
- Owner-occupancy
- 72.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 16.5%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 46.8%
- Median household income
- $71,067
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.