Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
The cash-flow capital. Detroit has the lowest median home value of any 5M-pop metro at $237,100, the only cap rate proxy above the national average (4.6% vs 4.4%), and the highest owner-occupancy (70.9%) — and after a +34.7% 5-year HPI run, permits are up +55.2% YoY.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.16×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Michigan
- 2.86×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.27
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
22.5%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Michigan
- 22.0%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-0.7
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.6%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Michigan
- 4.8%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.3
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.23%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Michigan
- -0.03%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
2.05
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Michigan
- 1.68+0.38
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.7%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Michigan
- 4.3%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Detroit
Detroit is the cash-flow capital of the United States. Across 6 counties — Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Livingston, St. Clair, and Lapeer — the metro packs 4.38 million residents with a household income of $75,123 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $237,100 — the lowest of any 5M-pop metro in the country. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,411, the lowest in the queue. The House Price Index ran +34.7% over five years (Freddie Mac FMHPI) — running with the national pace, not the press narrative of a sleepy market — and YoY is still +1.07%.
The interesting fact is that Detroit is the only major metro in the queue with a workable cap rate at the median. The cap rate proxy is 4.6% — deal-by-deal but ABOVE the national 4.4%. R/I is 22.5% (comfortable). P/I is 3.16 (moderate). These are the only "the math works at the metro median" numbers in the Tier 1+2+3 cohort. The 6-county geometry makes the supply story granular:
- Wayne County (1.78M pop, $170,200 median home value — lower than some Boston apartments rent for) leads with 3,881 building permits TTM — Detroit proper plus Dearborn, Livonia, and Westland.
- Oakland County (1.27M pop, $320,400 median home value) follows with 2,236 permits — the wealthy northern suburbs of Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, and Royal Oak.
- Macomb County (878K pop) adds 1,938 permits — the auto-corridor, Sterling Heights, Warren.
- Livingston, St. Clair, and Lapeer combined add 931 permits at the rural and exurban edges.
Detroit runs 2.05 permits per 1,000 residents — above the Michigan state median of 1.68 but below the national 3.49. Permit YoY is +55.2%, second only to SF in the queue.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −9,877 returns (IRS SOI) — small relative to a 4.4M population (just −0.23%). Top origins are all inside Michigan, so the exits are intra-state, not the great-Sun-Belt-flight narrative. Unemployment is 4.7%, slightly above the national 4.0%. Owner-occupancy is 70.9% — the highest of any 5M-pop metro in the queue. Inside Michigan, Detroit ranks #15 of 15 for 5-year HPI.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Detroit is THE cash-flow play in the queue. Wayne County's $170K median home value and the 4.6% cap proxy make this the only large metro where rent-to-price math works at the median. Underwrite Detroit proper, Dearborn, Hamtramck, and the inner-ring suburbs.
- If you're playing appreciation: Detroit is not the appreciation play. The 5-year run matched the country exactly, but the smaller MI metros ran harder. Don't expect double-digit YoY here.
- If you already own here: Stay. The +55.2% permit YoY says builders see continued demand. Wayne County's depth as the affordable inner ring, plus Oakland County's white-collar wage stability, anchor the metro.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+34.7%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+1.1% YoY
$237,100 median home value
Detroit home prices climbed 34.7% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a modest appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change has cooled to 1.1%, signaling the post-2022 surge has unwound into steady-state appreciation.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Detroit's index ran from ~196 in early 2020 to ~264 in Q4 2025. The **+34.7% 5-year change** in the card above is the canonical figure (Q4 2020 → Q4 2025) — running with the national pace, not the press narrative of a sleepy market.
- 02The Michigan state line tracks Detroit closely — Detroit is ~44% of MI's metro population, so the state-weighted average pulls hard from Detroit but smaller MI metros (Ann Arbor, Grand Rapids) shifted it up.
- 03U.S. metros climbed **+34.3%** over the same window. Detroit ran **even with the country** — the first major metro in the queue to do so without a wild over- or under-shoot.
- 04The most recent quarter is still **+1.07% YoY** — slowing but positive. Detroit has not flipped negative.
- 05Inside its own state, Detroit ranks **#15 of 15** for 5-year HPI — last in MI by a small margin. The smaller MI metros (Ann Arbor, Lansing, Grand Rapids) ran harder from a lower base. Detroit is the engine, not the appreciation play.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston County | $331,100 | $101,315 | 3.27× | moderate |
| Oakland County | $320,400 | $95,296 | 3.36× | moderate |
| Macomb County | $231,400 | $76,399 | 3.03× | moderate |
| Lapeer County | $229,100 | $76,228 | 3.01× | moderate |
| St. Clair County | $213,900 | $69,349 | 3.08× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,411
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
22.5% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 22.5% of their income — 0.7 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.5 points above Michigan (22.0%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,122 | $13.5K | 17.9% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,411 | $16.9K | 22.5% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,724 | $20.7K | 27.5% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.7%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Detroit's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.7% — 0.7 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.7%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$75,123
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
8,986
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+55.2% year-over-year
2.05 permits per 1,000 residents
Detroit pulled 8,986 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 55.2% year-over-year. That works out to 2.05 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
4,775
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
721
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
3,490
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 6 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Wayne County leads with 3,881 permits TTM** — 43% of the metro's 8,986-unit total. Detroit proper plus Dearborn, Livonia, and Westland anchor the largest single county pipeline.
- 02Oakland County (2,236) and Macomb County (1,938) follow — together with Wayne the three core counties account for **89% of the metro pipeline**. The northern suburbs and the Macomb auto-corridor build at scale.
- 03Livingston (533), St. Clair (231), and Lapeer (167) bring up the rear — these are the rural and exurban edges of the metro, beyond the Oakland County ring.
- 04**Permit YoY is +55.2%** — second only to SF in the queue. After the 2023 freeze, Detroit builders are pulling permits aggressively, betting on the cash-flow cycle.
- 05**Permit mix: 4,775 single-family + 3,490 5+ unit multifamily.** SF dominates at 53% — Detroit is closer to 50/50 than the Sun Belt SFR-heavy metros.
How to read the map
- 01Wayne County (Detroit proper) has 3,881 permits TTM ÷ 1.78M residents = **2.18 per 1,000** — slightly above the metro average. The city itself is permitting harder than its suburbs per capita.
- 02**Livingston County (northwest exurb) is the densest per capita** — 533 permits ÷ 194K residents = 2.74 per 1,000. The far-suburban relief valve for the metro.
- 03Oakland (1.27M pop, 2,236 permits = 1.76/1k) and Macomb (878K pop, 1,938 permits = 2.21/1k) are the inner-ring suburbs — both moderate, both building.
- 04The 6-county footprint hugs the western shore of the Detroit River and stretches west into the lake-effect snow belt. **No multi-state geometry** — Detroit is entirely Michigan.
- 05**Build intensity tracks land + cycle, not population.** The exurbs (Livingston) build harder per capita than the urban core. Wayne is recovering — the +55.2% permit YoY says the cycle is catching up.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wayne County | 1,781,641 | $59,521 | $170,200 | 3,881 | +83.2% |
| 2 | Oakland County | 1,272,264 | $95,296 | $320,400 | 2,236 | |
| 3 | Macomb County | 878,453 | $76,399 | $231,400 | 1,938 | +80.6% |
| 4 | Livingston County | 194,302 | $101,315 | $331,100 | 533 | +29.7% |
| 5 | St. Clair County | 160,257 | $69,349 | $213,900 | 231 | +11.6% |
| 6 | Lapeer County | 88,687 | $76,228 | $229,100 | 167 | +27.5% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Detroit by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 4 comparable metrics
Detroit is closest in size to Riverside, Phoenix, Minneapolis, Tampa. best in class on Price to income, and behind on Net migration, Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Detroit is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Detroit | 4.38M | $75K | $237K | 3.16× | 4.6% | +34.7% | 2.05 | -0.23% | 4.7% |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 4.61M | $86K | $494K | 5.74× | 3.5% | +50.2% | 3.26 | +0.08% | 5.1% |
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 4.86M | $85K | $401K | 4.74× | 3.6% | +53.8% | 7.99 | +0.31% | 3.5% |
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 3.68M | $98K | $354K | 3.61× | 3.8% | +33.5% | 3.84 | -0.13% | 4.0% |
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 3.19M | $71K | $306K | 4.30× | 5.0% | +42.8% | 6.92 | +0.70% | 4.6% |
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL | 6.12M | $73K | $406K | 5.52× | 4.7% | +55.3% | 3.63 | -0.16% | 3.5% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-9,877
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.23% of metro population
14,803 from top origin
Detroit lost −9,877 net IRS returns in the latest vintage — small relative to its 4.4M population (just −0.23%). The top out-migration origins are all inside Michigan (Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Genesee), so the exits are intra-state, not the great-Sun-Belt-flight narrative.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Wayne County, MI | 14,803 |
| Oakland County, MI | 14,224 |
| Macomb County, MI | 11,019 |
| Washtenaw County, MI | 4,288 |
| Genesee County, MI | 2,800 |
| Livingston County, MI | 1,582 |
Who lives in Detroit
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 40.2
- Owner-occupancy
- 70.9%
- Bachelor's+
- 34.1%
Detroit mature Midwest metro: Median age 40.2, 70.9% owner-occupancy 34.1% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 46.3% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $75,123
- Median age
- 40.2
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 34.1%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 70.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 8.3%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 46.3%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q1 2026 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026