Bay City, MI
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.23×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Michigan
- 2.86×-0.63
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-1.20
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
20.4%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Michigan
- 22.0%-1.6
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.9
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
5.95%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Michigan
- 4.81%+1.14
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+1.60
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.03%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Michigan
- -0.03%+0.05
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%=
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
tight
Permit pipeline
0.36
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Michigan
- 1.68
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
5.8%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Michigan
- 4.9%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+62.8%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+5.6%
Median home value
$135,100
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $814 | $9,768 | 16.1% |
| 2 BR | $1,030 | $12,360 | 20.4% |
| 3 BR | $1,399 | $16,788 | 27.7% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
5.8%
Median household income
$60,523
What's being built
Total TTM
37
+12.1% YoY
Single-family
37
2–4 unit
0
5+ unit
0
All 1 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bay County | 103,752 | $135,100 | $60,523 | 37 | +12.1% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Bay City | 103,752 | $60,523 | 2.23× | 5.95% | +62.8% | 0.36 | 5.8% |
| Lima, OH | 102,087 | $62,001 | — | — | +53.5% | — | 4.5% |
| Decatur, IL | 103,542 | $62,449 | — | — | +42.6% | — | 6.6% |
| Rome, GA | 98,541 | $62,540 | — | — | +60.9% | — | 3.3% |
| Sebring-Avon Park, FL | 102,339 | $55,581 | — | — | +74.3% | — | 6.3% |
| Cumberland, MD-WV | 95,118 | $59,413 | — | — | — | — | — |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+29
+0.03% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Saginaw County, MI | 470 |
| Midland County, MI | 329 |
| Tuscola County, MI | 113 |
| Arenac County, MI | 88 |
| Genesee County, MI | 86 |
| Oakland County, MI | 77 |
Who lives in Bay City
- Median age
- 44
- Bachelor's+
- 21.4%
- Owner-occupancy
- 76.4%
- Vacancy rate
- 7.6%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 39.6%
- Median household income
- $60,523
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.