Lexington-Fayette, KY
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.66×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Kentucky
- 3.30×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.6%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Kentucky
- 21.3%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-1.7
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.83%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Kentucky
- 4.10%
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.17%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Kentucky
- -0.02%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
4.43
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Kentucky
- 4.43=
- vs U.S.
- 3.52+0.91
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
very tight labor market
Unemployment
2.9%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Kentucky
- 3.3%-0.4
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-1.0
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+59.0%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+5.3%
Median home value
$258,900
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,079 | $12,948 | 18.3% |
| 2 BR | $1,272 | $15,264 | 21.6% |
| 3 BR | $1,743 | $20,916 | 29.6% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
2.9%
Median household income
$70,717
What's being built
Total TTM
2,288
+31.5% YoY
Single-family
1,526
2–4 unit
101
5+ unit
661
All 6 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fayette County | 321,276 | $272,100 | $67,631 | 1,039 | -0.4% |
| Scott County | 57,286 | $264,200 | $83,660 | 373 | |
| Jessamine County | 53,381 | $245,100 | $74,886 | 511 | +132.3% |
| Clark County | 36,897 | $197,900 | $67,824 | 163 | +24.4% |
| Woodford County | 26,886 | $270,400 | $80,006 | 89 | +11.3% |
| Bourbon County | 20,228 | $211,600 | $56,322 | 113 | +39.5% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Lexington | 515,954 | $70,717 | 3.66× | 3.83% | +59.0% | 4.43 | 2.9% |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL | 510,290 | $73,588 | — | — | +53.3% | — | 5.1% |
| Lansing-East Lansing, MI | 538,985 | $70,886 | — | — | +49.3% | — | 4.4% |
| Port St. Lucie, FL | 494,081 | $72,506 | — | — | +62.2% | — | 5.0% |
| Visalia, CA | 473,446 | $69,489 | — | — | +51.3% | — | 10.2% |
| Killeen-Temple, TX | 477,577 | $67,203 | — | — | +51.7% | — | 4.4% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-891
-0.17% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Fayette County, KY | 2,129 |
| Jessamine County, KY | 713 |
| Madison County, KY | 625 |
| Scott County, KY | 552 |
| Jefferson County, KY | 482 |
| Franklin County, KY | 345 |
Who lives in Lexington
- Median age
- 37
- Bachelor's+
- 41.1%
- Owner-occupancy
- 59.6%
- Vacancy rate
- 6.8%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 44.6%
- Median household income
- $70,717
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.