Bowling Green, KY
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.51×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Kentucky
- 3.30×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
22.2%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Kentucky
- 21.3%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-1.1
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.10%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Kentucky
- 4.10%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.12%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Kentucky
- -0.02%+0.14
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%+0.09
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
strong
Permit pipeline
8.65
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Kentucky
- 4.43+4.22
- vs U.S.
- 3.52+5.13
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.4%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Kentucky
- 3.3%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-0.5
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+55.7%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+5.4%
Median home value
$219,400
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $985 | $11,820 | 18.9% |
| 2 BR | $1,153 | $13,836 | 22.2% |
| 3 BR | $1,384 | $16,608 | 26.6% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
3.4%
Median household income
$62,437
What's being built
Total TTM
1,563
+109.8% YoY
Single-family
721
2–4 unit
54
5+ unit
788
All 4 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren County | 135,307 | $242,600 | $64,801 | 1,539 | +107.7% |
| Allen County | 20,773 | $176,300 | $59,029 | 20 | +233.3% |
| Butler County | 12,365 | $105,500 | $52,003 | 4 | +300.0% |
| Edmonson County | 12,179 | $136,600 | $54,512 | — | — |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Bowling Green | 180,624 | $62,437 | 3.51× | 4.10% | +55.7% | 8.65 | 3.4% |
| Muskegon, MI | 175,947 | $63,495 | — | — | +70.0% | — | 5.1% |
| Joplin, MO | 181,807 | $60,146 | — | — | +61.8% | — | 3.1% |
| Burlington, NC | 171,779 | $64,445 | — | — | +64.1% | — | 3.4% |
| Jackson, TN | 180,446 | $58,740 | — | — | +73.0% | — | 3.7% |
| Auburn-Opelika, AL | 175,126 | $58,991 | — | — | +55.0% | — | 2.1% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+209
+0.12% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Warren County, KY | 380 |
| Barren County, KY | 265 |
| Simpson County, KY | 215 |
| Sumner County, TN | 189 |
| Logan County, KY | 160 |
| Jefferson County, KY | 138 |
Who lives in Bowling Green
- Median age
- 36
- Bachelor's+
- 27.8%
- Owner-occupancy
- 61.8%
- Vacancy rate
- 10.2%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 41.9%
- Median household income
- $62,437
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.