South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.81×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Indiana
- 2.80×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.62
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
23.7%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Indiana
- 21.8%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
5.48%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Indiana
- 4.86%+0.62
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+1.14
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.15%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Indiana
- -0.01%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
2.55
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Indiana
- 2.82
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.2%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Indiana
- 2.6%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-0.7
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+58.4%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+3.4%
Median home value
$183,800
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,105 | $13,260 | 20.3% |
| 2 BR | $1,292 | $15,504 | 23.7% |
| 3 BR | $1,567 | $18,804 | 28.8% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
3.2%
Median household income
$65,385
What's being built
Total TTM
827
+14.4% YoY
Single-family
541
2–4 unit
47
5+ unit
239
All 2 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Joseph County | 272,388 | $179,800 | $64,885 | 699 | +16.5% |
| Cass County | 51,604 | $205,200 | $68,011 | 128 | +3.2% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★South Bend | 323,992 | $65,385 | 2.81× | 5.48% | +58.4% | 2.55 | 3.2% |
| Clarksville, TN-KY | 322,949 | $66,210 | — | — | +61.4% | — | 3.7% |
| Roanoke, VA | 314,708 | $67,447 | — | — | +60.9% | — | 3.3% |
| Rockford, IL | 338,050 | $66,571 | — | — | +67.4% | — | 6.2% |
| Evansville, IN-KY | 313,961 | $67,671 | — | — | +46.5% | — | 2.6% |
| Lubbock, TX | 322,285 | $62,288 | — | — | +35.7% | — | 3.1% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-479
-0.15% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Elkhart County, IN | 1,317 |
| Berrien County, MI | 656 |
| LaPorte County, IN | 282 |
| Cook County, IL | 247 |
| St. Joseph County, IN | 234 |
| Marshall County, IN | 233 |
Who lives in South Bend
- Median age
- 38
- Bachelor's+
- 30.7%
- Owner-occupancy
- 70.8%
- Vacancy rate
- 11.0%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 46.5%
- Median household income
- $65,385
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.