Boise City, ID
**The Idaho boom matures — still building, still growing, no longer cheap.** Boise runs HPI **+45.7% over 5yr** with **YoY +2.72%** moderating from the 20%+ peak years. **P/I 5.25 expensive (above ID state median 4.24), R/I 24.0% comfortable, Cap proxy 2.97% tight**. **Permits 11.86/1k strong** (3.4x national), **Permit YoY +21.2% accelerating**. 5 counties (Ada + Canyon + Gem + Owyhee + Boise). Migration **+5,007 (+0.65% steady)**. **Unemployment 3.2% — only T5 metro with current data, very tight labor market**. Owner-occupancy 72.7%, vacancy 4.6% (low). Anchored by Micron Technology HQ, Albertsons HQ, J.R. Simplot HQ, Boise State, St. Luke's, HP, plus the tail end of the California-refugee migration wave.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
5.25×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Idaho
- 4.24×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
24.0%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Idaho
- 22.6%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.0%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Idaho
- 3.2%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.65%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Idaho
- 0.26%+0.39
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.61
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
11.86
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Idaho
- 7.45+4.41
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+8.38
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.2%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Idaho
- 3.2%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.8
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Boise City
Boise City, ID is home to 771,602 residents in 5 counties — Ada, Canyon, Gem, Owyhee, and Boise. The metro pulled 9,155 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 11.86 per 1,000 residents, 3.4 times the national pace of 3.49. That puts Boise in the top quartile of building intensity in the queue. The cap rate proxy sits at 2.97% — tight — and the price-to-income ratio is 5.25 expensive (above the Idaho state median of 4.24). Median household income is $82,694, the median home value is $434K, and the BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 3.2% — the only T5 metro in the queue with current data, and one of the tightest labor markets in the country.
The structural story is the maturation of the Boise boom. Boise was the king of the 2020-2022 California-refugee migration wave — HPI compounded at over 20% per year for two consecutive years, peaking before the rate-hike cycle. Then came the correction: HPI gave back ~6% in 2023-2024 as buyer demand collapsed under the weight of suddenly-doubled median prices. YoY is now +2.72% — moderate, sustained, no sign of further give-back. Boise has stabilized. The 5-year compound of +45.7% includes BOTH the spike and the give-back — call it the "after-correction" number.
The county view tells the bedroom-community story:
- Ada County (497,494 residents, 5,096 permits TTM = 10.24 per 1,000) — Boise proper, Meridian (the largest suburb, now the second-largest city in Idaho), Eagle, Star, Kuna. 56% of the metro pipeline. Permit YoY +19.2%. Median home value $476K, MHHI $89K — the urban core.
- Canyon County (235,006 residents, 3,749 permits = 15.95 per 1,000) — the densest county per-capita. Nampa (now Idaho's third-largest city), Caldwell, Middleton, Wilder, Parma. The bedroom-community sprawl spilling out from Ada. Median home value $350K — meaningfully cheaper. Permit YoY +24.22%.
- Gem County (19,250 residents, 169 permits = 8.78 per 1,000) — Emmett. Small but proportional rural growth.
- Owyhee County (12,043 residents, 36 permits = 2.99 per 1,000) — Marsing, Homedale. Slowest, mostly desert and BLM land.
- Boise County (7,809 residents, 105 permits = 13.45 per 1,000) — Idaho City, Horseshoe Bend, Garden Valley. Mountain second-home territory.
Construction is 83% single-family / 17% multifamily (7,641 SF / 256 multi-2-4 / 1,258 multi-5+). The metro builds detached homes for the in-migrant wave and for the Idaho-grown population.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +5,007 returns (+0.65% of population) — strong. The classic Boise pull continues — California refugees, plus Pacific Northwest spillover. According to IRS Statistics of Income, the top origin counties in past years have included Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, King (Seattle), and Multnomah (Portland). Owner-occupancy is 72.7% (high), vacancy 4.6% (very low — supply is genuinely tight despite the building pace). The metro is anchored by Micron Technology HQ (the only U.S.-headquartered DRAM/NAND memory manufacturer, currently building a $15 billion fab expansion), Albertsons HQ (the second-largest grocery chain in the U.S.), J.R. Simplot HQ (the food processing giant), Boise State University, St. Luke's Health System, Hewlett Packard, and the booming downtown Boise tech scene.
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Boise does NOT pencil. The cap proxy at 2.97% tight combined with an expensive P/I of 5.25 means rents do not cover ownership costs at any reasonable leverage ratio. Boise is an appreciation story, never a cash-flow story.
- If you're playing appreciation — Boise is the rare Mountain West metro that combines: strong migration (+0.65%), strong permits (11.86/1k, +21% YoY), tight unemployment (3.2%), and a major manufacturing anchor expansion (Micron's $15B fab). The pandemic-era spike is over. The structural growth thesis isn't. Buy and hold for the Micron-fab and tech-spillover decade.
- If you already own here — you compounded ~46% over 5 years (after the give-back). Hold. Add cautiously in Canyon County (15.95/1k permit rate, cheaper entry point at $350K median). Don't add in Ada County at $476K median — the cap rate doesn't work and the appreciation runway is shorter.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+45.7%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+2.7% YoY
$434,400 median home value
Boise City home prices climbed 45.7% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 2.7% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Boise ran **+45.7% over five years** — solid Mountain West territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 11 points. Note: this is the 'after-correction' number; the 5-year curve includes the 2020-2022 boom AND the 2023-2024 give-back.
- 02**Recent YoY is +2.72%** — moderate, sustained. Boise has stabilized after the 20%+ pandemic-era HPI spikes — the steepest reset in any T5 metro is now over.
- 03Inside Idaho, Boise ranks **#2 of 4 for 5-year HPI** — middle of a small, hot state. **#1 by population, #1 by permits**.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Boise outperformed by ~11 points after giving back the spike.
- 05The takeaway: Boise is the **mature Idaho boom** — still growing, still building, still hot, but the explosive phase is over. The current YoY of +2.7% is sustainable; the +20% YoYs of 2021 were not.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ada County | $476,000 | $88,907 | 5.35× | stretched |
| Boise County | $424,100 | $77,349 | 5.48× | stretched |
| Gem County | $367,300 | $66,245 | 5.54× | stretched |
| Canyon County | $350,300 | $72,355 | 4.84× | moderate |
| Owyhee County | $281,600 | $59,773 | 4.71× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,655
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
24.0% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 24.0% of their income — 0.7 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.4 points above Idaho (22.6%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,381 | $16.6K | 20.0% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,655 | $19.9K | 24.0% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,318 | $27.8K | 33.6% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.2%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Boise City's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.2% — 0.8 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.2%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$82,694
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
9,155
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+21.2% year-over-year
11.86 permits per 1,000 residents
Boise City pulled 9,155 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 21.2% year-over-year. That works out to 11.86 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
7,641
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
256
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,258
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 5 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Ada County leads with 5,096 TTM permits = 10.24 per 1,000** — Boise proper, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna. **56% of the metro pipeline.** Permit YoY +19.2%.
- 02**Canyon County** (Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Wilder, Parma) builds **3,749 permits = 15.95 per 1,000** — **the densest county in the metro per-capita**. The bedroom-community sprawl spilling out from Ada.
- 03**Gem County** (Emmett) issued **169 permits = 8.78 per 1,000** — small but proportional rural growth.
- 04**Owyhee County** (Marsing, Homedale) issued **36 permits = 2.99 per 1,000** — slowest, mostly rural agricultural land.
- 05**Boise County** (Idaho City, Horseshoe Bend, Garden Valley) issued **105 permits = 13.45 per 1,000** — small but the second-densest county per-capita, second-home and recreation country.
How to read the map
- 01**Canyon County (west, Nampa/Caldwell) is densest at 15.95 per 1,000** — the bedroom-community sprawl. Nampa is now the third-largest city in Idaho and absorbing most of the affordable single-family pipeline.
- 02**Boise County (north, Idaho City/Garden Valley) at 13.45 per 1,000** — small population but heavy second-home/recreation building. Mountains and forest service land.
- 03**Ada County (the urban core) at 10.24 per 1,000** — Boise itself, Meridian (the largest suburb, second-largest city in Idaho), Eagle, Star, Kuna. Tech anchors and Boise State.
- 04**Gem County (north, Emmett) at 8.78 per 1,000** — small rural county, modest growth.
- 05**Owyhee County (south, mostly desert) at 2.99 per 1,000** — the slowest, almost entirely BLM and rangeland.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ada County | 497,494 | $88,907 | $476,000 | 5,096 | +19.2% |
| 2 | Canyon County | 235,006 | $72,355 | $350,300 | 3,749 | +24.2% |
| 3 | Gem County | 19,250 | $66,245 | $367,300 | 169 | +10.5% |
| 4 | Owyhee County | 12,043 | $59,773 | $281,600 | 36 | |
| 5 | Boise County | 7,809 | $77,349 | $424,100 | 105 | +41.9% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Boise City by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 2 comparable metrics
Boise City is closest in size to Charleston, Colorado Springs, Stockton, Des Moines. best in class on Unemployment.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Boise City is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Boise City | 0.77M | $83K | $434K | 5.25× | 3.0% | +45.7% | 11.86 | +0.65% | 3.2% |
Charleston-North Charleston, SC | 0.80M | $82K | $345K | 4.20× | 4.0% | +69.1% | 9.01 | +0.42% | 4.1% |
Colorado Springs, CO | 0.76M | $87K | $432K | 4.95× | 3.1% | +37.7% | 7.54 | +0.19% | 3.6% |
Stockton, CA | 0.78M | $89K | $495K | 5.59× | 2.7% | +34.5% | 3.12 | +0.17% | 6.4% |
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | 0.71M | $84K | $252K | 3.00× | 4.1% | +41.5% | 7.80 | +0.05% | 3.3% |
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | 0.84M | $78K | $368K | 4.70× | 4.2% | +57.3% | 20.23 | +1.29% | 4.9% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+5,007
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.65% of metro population
3,980 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Ada County, ID | 3,980 |
| Canyon County, ID | 2,916 |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 763 |
| Orange County, CA | 731 |
| San Diego County, CA | 545 |
| King County, WA | 495 |
Who lives in Boise City
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 37.4
- Owner-occupancy
- 72.7%
- Bachelor's+
- 36.6%
Boise City relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 37.4, 72.7% owner-occupancy 36.6% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 44.3% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $82,694
- Median age
- 37.4
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 36.6%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 72.7%
- Vacancy rate
- 4.6%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 44.3%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026