Urban Honolulu, HI
The island constraint metro. Honolulu is **the most expensive metro in the queue** — $873K median home value, P/I **8.37 expensive**, R/I **30.4% burdened**, cap proxy **2.36% (worst in queue)**. HPI +34.6% over 5yr matches the national exactly — no compounding edge. YoY +0.44% basically flat. Migration **−3,110 (−0.31%)** is the queue's worst out-flow rate. Permits 1.42/1k tight (geography is the supply). The island isn't a market, it's an economy.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
8.37×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Hawaii
- 8.70×-0.33
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
30.4%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Hawaii
- 31.8%-1.4
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.4%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Hawaii
- 2.4%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.31%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Hawaii
- -0.16%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline growing
Permit pipeline
1.42
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Hawaii
- 2.96
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Urban Honolulu
Honolulu is the island constraint metro. Across 1 county — Honolulu County (which encompasses the entire island of Oahu) — the metro packs 1.01 million residents with a household income of $104,264 (Census ACS) — the highest in the queue — and a median home value of $873,000 — also the highest in the queue. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $2,642 — also the highest. The House Price Index ran +34.6% over five years (FHFA HPI) — basically matching the U.S. metros average of +34.3% exactly.
The interesting fact is that Honolulu compounds at the national rate without any of the affordability. The price-to-income ratio is 8.37 — expensive. The rent-to-income is 30.4% — burdened. The cap rate proxy is 2.36% — tight, the worst in the queue. Recent year-over-year HPI is +0.44% — basically flat. Hawaii has only 2 metros (Honolulu and Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina on Maui), and Honolulu ranks #1 by population, #1 by permits, #2 by 5-year HPI — Maui actually beat it on appreciation. The constraint geography (island) gives a price floor but no growth premium.
Honolulu is a single-county island metro — the only one in the queue:
- Honolulu County (1.01M pop, $873,000 MHV) is the entire island of Oahu. 1,433 permits TTM = 1.42 per 1,000 — well below the national 3.49 and below the Hawaii state median of 2.96. The relevant submarkets are inside Oahu: Honolulu proper (Kakaako, Ala Moana, downtown), Waikiki, Pearl City, Mililani, Kapolei, Ewa Beach, North Shore.
The 42% single-family / 49% 5+ multifamily mix is the most multifamily-tilted in the queue — land scarcity drives vertical construction. Most permit volume is in the Kapolei-Ewa-Mililani corridor on the leeward side; the North Shore and windward (Kailua, Kaneohe) are largely built out and zoned for low density. Permit YoY is +8.4% — modest acceleration off a tight base.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −3,110 returns (IRS SOI) — −0.31% of population, the worst out-flow rate of any T5 metro in the queue. Hawaii cost-of-living drives mainland-bound households despite the paradise premium. Owner-occupancy 59.5% (lowest in queue), bachelor's-or-higher 37.7%. The labor market is anchored by the U.S. military (Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Schofield Barracks, Marine Corps Base Hawaii), federal government, the University of Hawaii, tourism, and retail. It's a defense + tourism + federal economy with limited private-sector growth.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Don't. 2.36% cap proxy is the worst in the queue — lower than San Francisco. The math doesn't work for buy-and-hold rental at any reasonable LTV. The R/I 30.4% is burdened territory; even raising rent to "make the deal work" runs into demand limits.
- If you're playing appreciation: Honolulu compounds at the national rate. +34.6% over 5 years is real but you're paying $873K to participate. There's no compounding edge over the U.S. metros average — the constraint geography gives a floor, not a ceiling.
- If you already own here: Hold. The constraint geography means a Phoenix-style 20% drawdown is structurally unlikely. But the migration loss (−0.31%) and the flat YoY (+0.44%) suggest the next 3-5 years will be a sideways grind, not appreciation. Honolulu rentals make sense as a primary residence + long-hold lifestyle play, not as a portfolio addition.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+34.6%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+0.4% YoY
$873,000 median home value
Urban Honolulu home prices climbed 34.6% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a modest appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change has cooled to 0.4%, signaling the post-2022 surge has unwound into steady-state appreciation.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Honolulu ran **+34.6% over five years** — basically matching the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) exactly. **Zero compounding edge** vs the national despite the constraint geography.
- 02**Recent YoY is +0.44%** — basically flat. The cycle has rolled over. While mainland metros range from −2% (Phoenix) to +6% (Buffalo), Honolulu sits at zero.
- 03Hawaii has only **2 metros** (Honolulu and Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina on Maui) — Honolulu is **#1 by population, #1 by permits, #2 by 5-year HPI** (Maui actually beat it).
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Honolulu matched it. Five-year compounding without an outperformance edge — at the most expensive entry point in the queue.
- 05The takeaway: Honolulu compounds at the national rate with **none of the affordability** that makes the math work elsewhere. The constraint geography (island) gives a price floor but no growth premium.
Where the value tier sits — top 1 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu County | $873,000 | $104,264 | 8.37× | stretched |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$2,642
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
30.4% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 30.4% of their income — 7.1 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.4 points below Hawaii (31.8%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $2,016 | $24.2K | 23.2% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $2,642 | $31.7K | 30.4% | rent-burdened |
| 3 BR | $3,674 | $44.1K | 42.3% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Urban Honolulu's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$104,264
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
1,433
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+8.4% year-over-year
1.42 permits per 1,000 residents
Urban Honolulu pulled 1,433 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a modest expansion 8.4% year-over-year. That works out to 1.42 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
605
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
122
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
706
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 1 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Honolulu County is the entire island of Oahu** — 1.01 million residents, 1,433 TTM permits = 1.42 per 1,000.
- 02Honolulu is a **single-county metro** by Census definition, but Honolulu County encompasses **the entire island of Oahu** — every neighborhood from Waikiki to North Shore is one county.
- 03**42% single-family / 49% 5+ multifamily mix** — heavily multifamily-tilted. Land scarcity drives vertical construction in downtown Honolulu, Kakaako, Waikiki, and the leeward apartment corridors.
- 04Honolulu runs **1.42 permits per 1,000 residents** — below the national 3.49 and below the Hawaii state median of 2.96. **Permit YoY is +8.4%** — modest acceleration but off a very tight base.
- 05**Geography is the supply constraint.** No exurbs, no county sprawl, no mainland-style outward growth. The only way to build is up, and Honolulu's height restrictions (especially in residential zones) limit even that.
How to read the map
- 01**Honolulu County (the entire island of Oahu) at 1.42 per 1,000** — well below the national 3.49.
- 02Single-county island metros compress the visualization — **the relevant submarkets are inside Oahu**: Honolulu proper (Kakaako, Ala Moana, downtown), Waikiki, Pearl City, Mililani, Kapolei, Ewa Beach, North Shore.
- 03**Kapolei** (the 'second city' on the leeward side) is where most master-planned new construction is happening — outside the urban Honolulu core but inside the same county.
- 04The North Shore and windward (Kailua, Kaneohe) are largely built out and zoned for low density. Most permit volume is in the Kapolei-Ewa-Mililani corridor.
- 05**The choropleth has only one shape** because every Honolulu metro permit happens in the same county. The interesting variation is at the neighborhood level, not the county level.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Honolulu County | 1,010,100 | $104,264 | $873,000 | 1,433 | +8.4% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Urban Honolulu by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Urban Honolulu is closest in size to Bridgeport, Worcester, Oxnard, Hartford.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Urban Honolulu is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Urban Honolulu | 1.01M | $104K | $873K | 8.37× | 2.4% | +34.6% | 1.42 | -0.31% | — |
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT | 0.96M | $112K | $531K | 4.75× | — | +61.2% | — | — | — |
Worcester, MA-CT | 0.98M | $94K | $391K | 4.18× | 4.3% | +54.2% | 1.64 | -0.08% | — |
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | 0.84M | $107K | $768K | 7.16× | 2.7% | +42.8% | 1.99 | -0.28% | — |
Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT | 1.22M | $93K | $309K | 3.33× | 4.7% | +61.5% | — | — | — |
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY | 0.90M | $86K | $268K | 3.12× | 4.9% | +53.1% | 2.37 | +0.11% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-3,110
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.31% of metro population
819 from top origin
Honolulu is losing residents on net — net IRS migration of −3,110 returns, −0.31% of population. This is the worst out-flow rate of any T5 metro in the queue. Hawaii cost-of-living drives mainland-bound households despite the paradise premium. The trend has been negative for the entire decade.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| San Diego County, CA | 819 |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 715 |
| Hawaii County, HI | 469 |
| Clark County, NV | 465 |
| Maui County, HI | 418 |
| King County, WA | 398 |
Who lives in Urban Honolulu
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 39.4
- Owner-occupancy
- 59.5%
- Bachelor's+
- 37.7%
Urban Honolulu relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 39.4, 59.5% owner-occupancy 37.7% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 53.9% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $104,264
- Median age
- 39.4
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 37.7%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 59.5%
- Vacancy rate
- 9.5%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 53.9%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026