Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
9.03×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Hawaii
- 8.70×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
33.1%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Hawaii
- 31.8%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.38%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Hawaii
- 2.37%+0.01
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.01%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Hawaii
- -0.16%+0.15
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
4.50
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Hawaii
- 2.96+1.54
- vs U.S.
- 3.52+0.98
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
very tight labor market
Unemployment
2.4%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Hawaii
- 2.3%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-1.5
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+60.0%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+9.4%
Median home value
$858,600
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $2,000 | $24,000 | 25.3% |
| 2 BR | $2,624 | $31,488 | 33.1% |
| 3 BR | $3,398 | $40,776 | 42.9% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
2.4%
Median household income
$95,049
What's being built
Total TTM
742
+19.3% YoY
Single-family
453
2–4 unit
28
5+ unit
261
All 2 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maui County | 164,765 | $858,600 | $95,076 | 742 | +19.3% |
| Kalawao County | 50 | — | $86,250 | — | — |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Kahului | 164,765 | $95,049 | 9.03× | 2.38% | +60.0% | 4.50 | 2.4% |
| Midland, TX | 174,621 | $93,442 | — | — | +26.7% | — | 2.9% |
| East Stroudsburg, PA | 168,128 | $82,374 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kingston, NY | 182,153 | $81,804 | — | — | +67.4% | — | 3.5% |
| Bloomington, IL | 171,284 | $78,329 | — | — | +55.6% | — | 4.6% |
| Winchester, VA-WV | 143,385 | $82,413 | — | — | +52.9% | — | 3.0% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-10
-0.01% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Honolulu County, HI | 340 |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 153 |
| Hawaii County, HI | 127 |
| San Diego County, CA | 98 |
| King County, WA | 87 |
| Clark County, NV | 84 |
Who lives in Kahului
- Median age
- 43
- Bachelor's+
- 30.1%
- Owner-occupancy
- 65.0%
- Vacancy rate
- 23.3%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 48.7%
- Median household income
- $95,049
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.