Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
**The Space Coast — SpaceX + L3Harris + Kennedy Space Center anchor.** Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville runs HPI **+54.5% over 5yr** with **YoY +0.17%** barely positive (FL cooldown). **P/I 4.01 moderate, R/I 29.4% moderate, Cap proxy 4.38% deal-by-deal**. MHV $291K. Single-county metro (Brevard). **Permits 7.15/1k strong**. Migration **+6,529 (+1.07% strong)**. **Unemployment 4.8% softer**. Anchored by **Kennedy Space Center** (NASA), **SpaceX Launch Complex 39A + Starship**, **L3Harris Technologies HQ** (the #6 US defense contractor), **Northrop Grumman**, **Blue Origin**, **Collins Aerospace**, Florida Institute of Technology, Health First.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.01×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Florida
- 4.22×-0.20
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
27.0%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Florida
- 28.1%-1.1
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.4%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Florida
- 4.4%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.0
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+1.07%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Florida
- 0.83%+0.24
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+1.03
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline growing
Permit pipeline
7.15
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Florida
- 8.03
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+3.67
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.8%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Florida
- 4.9%-0.1
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Palm Bay
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL is home to 610,723 residents in a single county — Brevard County. The metro pulled 4,365 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 7.15 per 1,000 residents, well above the national pace of 3.49 and near the Florida state median of 8.03. The cap rate proxy sits at 4.38% — deal-by-deal — and the price-to-income ratio is 4.01 moderate. Median household income is $72,511, the median home value is $291K, and the BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 4.8% — softer than national.
The structural story is the Space Coast — where SpaceX launches rockets and L3Harris builds defense electronics. Brevard County is one of the most iconic aerospace corridors in the world:
- Kennedy Space Center (NASA) — the launch site for every crewed U.S. orbital mission since Apollo. Now the anchor of SpaceX's Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and eventually Starship operations.
- Cape Canaveral Space Force Station — SpaceX Launch Complex 39A + 40, United Launch Alliance, Blue Origin.
- L3Harris Technologies HQ in Melbourne — the #6 U.S. defense contractor by revenue, ~20,000 employees in Brevard County alone. Space, electronic warfare, communications, and intelligence systems.
- Northrop Grumman — significant missile defense and space systems presence.
- Collins Aerospace — aircraft avionics and space systems.
- Blue Origin — New Glenn launch pad construction at Cape Canaveral.
- Patrick Space Force Base — the 45th Space Wing and Space Launch Delta 45.
- Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) in Melbourne — ~8,000 students, strong aerospace/engineering programs.
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency HPI, Palm Bay ran HPI +54.5% over five years but YoY is +0.17% — essentially flat. The Space Coast has stalled but hasn't gone negative like Cape Coral (−4.67%) or North Port (−1.66%). The FL cooldown is squeezing out the marginal appreciation while the aerospace demand floor holds.
Net IRS migration is +6,529 returns (+1.07% of population) — strong, the 4th-strongest in any FL metro in the queue (behind Lakeland +1.64%, North Port +1.29%, Cape Coral +1.06%). According to IRS Statistics of Income, the in-migration is classic Florida retirement + aerospace-workforce pull. Owner-occupancy 72.4% (high), vacancy 12.2% (FL seasonal pattern), median age 46.0 (retiree-heavy).
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Palm Bay is borderline. The cap proxy at 4.38% deal-by-deal combined with Florida insurance means real cash-on-cash is thinner. Focus on interior Palm Bay and Melbourne (lower insurance than beachfront).
- If you're playing appreciation — the YoY +0.17% is the stall signal but the aerospace anchor is structural. SpaceX launch cadence is accelerating, L3Harris is growing, and the Space Force is expanding. Buy the stall — 12-24 months out the aerospace demand reasserts. Focus on Viera (master-planned) and Melbourne (L3Harris corridor).
- If you already own here — hold. The Space Coast aerospace anchor doesn't churn. Watch Florida insurance costs — that's the real headwind, not demand.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+54.5%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+0.2% YoY
$304,400 median home value
Palm Bay home prices climbed 54.5% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change has cooled to 0.2%, signaling the post-2022 surge has unwound into steady-state appreciation.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Palm Bay ran **+54.5% over five years** — solid Sun Belt territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 20 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +0.17%** — essentially flat. The Space Coast has stalled but hasn't gone negative like Cape Coral (−4.67%) or North Port (−1.66%).
- 03Inside Florida, Palm Bay ranks middle of the state for 5-year HPI — the Space Coast corridor.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Palm Bay outperformed by ~20 points but the current-year momentum has evaporated.
- 05The takeaway: Palm Bay is the **Space Coast stall** — SpaceX + L3Harris + NASA Kennedy Space Center anchor the structural demand, but the FL cooldown is squeezing out the marginal appreciation.
Where the value tier sits — top 1 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brevard County | $304,400 | $75,817 | 4.01× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,709
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
27.0% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 27.0% of their income — 3.8 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.1 points below Florida (28.1%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,478 | $17.7K | 23.4% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,709 | $20.5K | 27.0% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $2,330 | $28.0K | 36.9% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.8%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Palm Bay's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.8% — 0.9 points above the U.S. metros average (3.9%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.8%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$75,817
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
4,369
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+8.6% year-over-year
7.15 permits per 1,000 residents
Palm Bay pulled 4,369 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a modest expansion 8.6% year-over-year. That works out to 7.15 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
3,289
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
6
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,074
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 1 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Brevard County is the entire metro — 4,365 TTM permits = 7.15 per 1,000** — Palm Bay, Melbourne, Titusville, Cocoa, Cocoa Beach, Satellite Beach, Indialantic, Merritt Island, Cape Canaveral, Viera. 100% of the pipeline.
- 02Palm Bay runs **7.15 permits per 1,000 residents** — well above the national 3.49 and near the Florida state median of 8.03.
- 03**Construction is heavily single-family** — the Space Coast builds detached homes for the aerospace workforce.
- 04**The Viera master-planned community** (central Brevard) is one of the largest in the metro — a planned suburban city anchored by a hospital, shopping, and I-95 access.
- 05Brevard County hosts **Kennedy Space Center** (NASA), **Cape Canaveral Space Force Station** (SpaceX Launch Complex 39A + 40), **Patrick Space Force Base**, and the **L3Harris Technologies HQ** in Melbourne.
How to read the map
- 01**Brevard County is the entire MSA at 7.15 per 1,000** — a 72-mile-long barrier island county stretching from Titusville (north, Kennedy Space Center) to Palm Bay (south).
- 02**Melbourne** (south-central) is the urban core — **L3Harris Technologies HQ** (the #6 US defense contractor, ~20K employees in Brevard), Florida Institute of Technology (FIT).
- 03**Titusville** (north) is the Kennedy Space Center gateway — closest city to the launch pads.
- 04**Cocoa and Cocoa Beach** (central) sit across the causeway from Cape Canaveral — SpaceX operations, cruise terminal, beach tourism.
- 05**Palm Bay** (south) is the largest city by population — the bedroom-community sprawl absorbing the L3Harris + Northrop Grumman + Collins Aerospace workforce.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brevard County | 610,723 | $75,817 | $304,400 | 4,369 | +8.6% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Palm Bay by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 2 comparable metrics
Palm Bay is closest in size to Harrisburg, Spokane, Syracuse, Durham. best in class on Net migration.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Palm Bay is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Palm Bay | 0.61M | $76K | $304K | 4.01× | 4.4% | +54.5% | 7.15 | +1.07% | 4.8% |
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA | 0.59M | $79K | $239K | 3.02× | 4.9% | +52.9% | 2.17 | +0.08% | 3.2% |
Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA | 0.59M | $73K | $366K | 5.02× | 3.3% | +47.2% | 5.10 | +0.34% | 5.2% |
Syracuse, NY | 0.66M | $74K | $175K | 2.38× | 6.2% | +69.4% | 3.36 | -0.20% | 3.8% |
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC | 0.65M | $81K | $359K | 4.44× | 3.7% | +61.4% | 7.29 | -0.04% | 3.1% |
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR | 0.55M | $78K | $273K | 3.51× | 3.8% | +71.7% | 16.99 | +0.38% | 3.1% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+6,529
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+1.07% of metro population
1,421 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Orange County, FL | 1,421 |
| Broward County, FL | 739 |
| Palm Beach County, FL | 579 |
| Indian River County, FL | 570 |
| Seminole County, FL | 472 |
| Miami-Dade County, FL | 471 |
Who lives in Palm Bay
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 46.8
- Owner-occupancy
- 76.9%
- Bachelor's+
- 33.5%
Palm Bay mature Midwest metro: Median age 46.8, 76.9% owner-occupancy 33.5% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 50.5% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $75,817
- Median age
- 46.8
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 33.5%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 76.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 14.5%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 50.5%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026