Gainesville, FL
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.17×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Florida
- 4.23×-0.06
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
30.4%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Florida
- 28.1%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.74%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Florida
- 4.40%+0.33
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+0.39
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.15%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Florida
- 0.82%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
strong
Permit pipeline
5.89
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Florida
- 7.87
- vs U.S.
- 3.53+2.35
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
5.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Florida
- 5.5%
- vs U.S.
- 4.5%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
owner-occupant market
Investor loan share
7.3%
3,530 purchase loans · 30.0% denial rate · 2024
Share of financed home purchases going to investors. Above ~15% means landlords are outbidding owner-occupants; below ~8% is owner-dominated.
Benchmark
Investor purchase loans ÷ all purchase loans (CFPB HMDA LAR, annual)
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+56.1%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+0.2%
Median home value
$245,800
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,246 | $14,952 | 25.4% |
| 2 BR | $1,493 | $17,916 | 30.4% |
| 3 BR | $1,868 | $22,416 | 38.0% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
5.6%
Median household income
$58,946
What's being built
Total TTM
2,028
+49.3% YoY
Single-family
1,031
2–4 unit
14
5+ unit
983
All 3 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alachua County | 279,729 | $266,800 | $59,659 | 1,695 | +50.5% |
| Levy County | 43,268 | $171,400 | $53,805 | 240 | +49.1% |
| Gilchrist County | 18,070 | $191,000 | $61,070 | 93 | +27.4% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Gainesville | 341,067 | $58,946 | 4.17× | 4.74% | +56.1% | 5.89 | 5.6% |
| Columbus, GA-AL | 326,159 | $57,762 | — | — | +48.8% | — | 3.6% |
| Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH | 359,005 | $58,483 | — | — | +45.6% | — | 4.4% |
| Spartanburg, SC | 330,119 | $62,440 | — | — | +65.4% | — | 4.9% |
| Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC | 366,031 | $60,255 | — | — | +64.9% | — | 3.3% |
| Lubbock, TX | 322,285 | $62,288 | — | — | +35.7% | — | 3.1% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-513
-0.15% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Marion County, FL | 763 |
| Alachua County, FL | 489 |
| Broward County, FL | 357 |
| Miami-Dade County, FL | 347 |
| Levy County, FL | 341 |
| Orange County, FL | 295 |
Who lives in Gainesville
- Median age
- 34
- Bachelor's+
- 40.9%
- Owner-occupancy
- 58.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 11.0%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 54.7%
- Median household income
- $58,946
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Vintage |
|---|---|---|
| rent vs buy | HUD FMR + Census ACS + FRED MORTGAGE30US | current FY |