Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
**The I-4 corridor beach metro — Orlando spillover + NASCAR country.** Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach runs HPI **+52.0% over 5yr** but **YoY −1.46%** (Florida cooldown). **P/I 4.25 moderate, R/I 32.1% burdened, Cap proxy 4.90% workable**. MHV $287K. FMR 2BR $1,806. 2 counties (Volusia 559K, Flagler 118K). **Permits 8.03/1k strong** (right at FL state median). Permit YoY +13.7%. **Migration +8,119 (+1.20% strong — 3rd-strongest FL metro in queue)**. **Unemployment 5.3% softer**. Median age 47.8 (retiree-heavy). Vacancy 14.5% (FL seasonal). Owner-occupancy 74.3%. Anchored by Daytona International Speedway (NASCAR), Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Bethune-Cookman University, Orlando spillover via I-4 (Deltona), Palm Coast master-planned communities (Flagler), AdventHealth, Halifax Health.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.25×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Florida
- 4.22×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
32.1%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Florida
- 28.1%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.9%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Florida
- 4.4%+0.5
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.6
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+1.20%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Florida
- 0.83%+0.37
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+1.17
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
8.03
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Florida
- 8.03=
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+4.55
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
5.3%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Florida
- 4.5%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Deltona
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL is home to 676,035 residents in 2 counties — Volusia and Flagler. The metro pulled 5,429 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 8.03 per 1,000 residents, right at the Florida state median. The cap rate proxy sits at 4.90% — workable — and the price-to-income ratio is 4.25 moderate. But the rent-to-income is 32.1% — burdened. Median household income is $67,599, the median home value is $287K, and the BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 5.3% — softer than national.
The structural story is the I-4 corridor beach metro — where Orlando spillover meets NASCAR country meets retirement. Deltona-Daytona Beach sits at the intersection of I-4 (Orlando to the coast) and I-95 (Jacksonville to Miami). This dual-interstate crossroads drives commute demand (Deltona is an Orlando bedroom community), tourism demand (Daytona Beach and the Speedway), and retirement demand (Palm Coast master-planned communities in Flagler County).
HPI ran +52.0% over five years — solid Sun Belt territory. But YoY is −1.46% — the Florida cooldown is biting. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency HPI, Deltona-Daytona Beach joins Cape Coral (−4.67%), North Port (−1.66%), and Lakeland (−0.95%) in the Florida correction cohort. The metro's correction is moderate — milder than Cape Coral, similar to North Port.
The county view tells the master-planned community story:
- Volusia County (558,520 residents, 2,787 permits TTM = 4.99 per 1,000) — Deltona (the I-4 corridor bedroom community to Orlando), Daytona Beach (NASCAR + beach tourism), Ormond Beach, Port Orange, DeLand (Stetson University, the "Athens of Florida"), New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater, Holly Hill, South Daytona. 51% of the metro pipeline. Permit YoY +5.21%.
- Flagler County (117,515 residents, 2,642 permits = 22.48 per 1,000) — one of the highest per-capita building rates of ANY county in the entire queue. Palm Coast is a massive master-planned retirement community originally developed by ITT in the 1970s. Flagler Beach and Bunnell round out the county. Permit YoY +22.66%.
Construction is 73% single-family / 27% multifamily (3,940 SF / 318 multi-2-4 / 1,171 multi-5+). Heavy single-family for the retirement + Orlando spillover demographic. Permit YoY is +13.7% — moderate acceleration.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +8,119 returns (+1.20% of population) — the 3rd-strongest migration intensity of any Florida metro in the queue (behind Lakeland +1.64% and North Port +1.29%). According to IRS Statistics of Income, the in-migration is the classic Florida pull — Northeast and Midwest retirees plus Orlando remote workers. So you have falling prices + strong migration + continued construction — the same paradox we see in Cape Coral and North Port.
Owner-occupancy 74.3% (high — Florida retiree pattern), vacancy 14.5% (high — seasonal), median age 47.8 (retiree-heavy, 3rd-oldest in queue after North Port 53.6 and Cape Coral 49.3), rent burdened 52.2% severe, bachelors 27.8%.
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Deltona-Daytona Beach is borderline workable. The cap proxy at 4.90% with a $287K median home value and $1,806 Fair Market Rent pencils before Florida insurance. After insurance (which has doubled since 2022), the real cash-on-cash is thinner. Focus on Deltona and DeLand (interior, less coastal insurance risk) over Daytona Beach or Flagler Beach.
- If you're playing appreciation — the YoY −1.46% is the Florida cooldown signal, but the +1.20% migration is strong. Wait 6-12 months for the YoY to flatten. The Palm Coast / Flagler County growth node is the structural play — one of the highest per-capita build rates in any metro county.
- If you already own here — hold. The insurance headwind is real but the migration demand is structural (Daytona's I-4 × I-95 crossroads position doesn't change). Don't add at beach-zone insurance rates.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+52.0%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
-1.5% YoY
$287,200 median home value
Deltona home prices climbed 52.0% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change is negative (-1.5%), signaling the market is cooling.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Deltona-Daytona Beach ran **+52.0% over five years** — solid Sun Belt territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 18 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is −1.46%** — the Florida cooldown is hitting the I-4 corridor beach metros. Milder than Cape Coral's −4.67% but still negative.
- 03Inside Florida, Deltona-Daytona Beach ranks middle of the state for 5-year HPI — the Orlando-adjacent beach corridor.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Deltona-Daytona Beach outperformed by ~18 points but is now giving back.
- 05The takeaway: Deltona-Daytona Beach is the **I-4 corridor beach metro** — Orlando spillover (Deltona) + NASCAR country (Daytona) + retirement/Palm Coast (Flagler). Strong migration but the FL cooldown is biting.
Where the value tier sits — top 2 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flagler County | $333,400 | $72,923 | 4.57× | moderate |
| Volusia County | $278,000 | $66,581 | 4.18× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,806
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
32.1% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 32.1% of their income — 8.8 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 3.9 points above Florida (28.1%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,433 | $17.2K | 25.4% | moderate |
| 2 BR | $1,806 | $21.7K | 32.1% | rent-burdened |
| 3 BR | $2,468 | $29.6K | 43.8% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
5.3%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Deltona's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 5.3% — 1.3 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
5.3%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$67,599
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
5,429
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+13.7% year-over-year
8.03 permits per 1,000 residents
Deltona pulled 5,429 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 13.7% year-over-year. That works out to 8.03 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
3,940
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
318
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,171
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 2 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Volusia County leads with 2,787 TTM permits = 4.99 per 1,000** — Deltona (the I-4 corridor bedroom community), Daytona Beach (NASCAR), Ormond Beach, Port Orange, DeLand, New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater, Holly Hill, South Daytona. **51% of the metro pipeline.** Permit YoY +5.21%.
- 02**Flagler County** (Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, Bunnell) issued **2,642 permits = 22.48 per 1,000** — **one of the highest per-capita rates in ANY metro county in the entire queue**. Palm Coast is a massive master-planned retirement community. Permit YoY **+22.66%**.
- 03Deltona-Daytona Beach runs **8.03 permits per 1,000 residents** — right at the Florida state median of 8.03.
- 04**Permit YoY is +13.7%** — moderate acceleration. Builders are still constructing despite the HPI YoY flip.
- 05**73% single-family / 27% multifamily** (3,940 SF / 318 multi-2-4 / 1,171 multi-5+). Heavy single-family for the retirement + Orlando spillover demographic.
How to read the map
- 01**Flagler County (south, Palm Coast) is by far the densest at 22.48 per 1,000** — Palm Coast is one of the largest master-planned communities on the East Coast, and the per-capita building rate is explosive.
- 02**Volusia County (north, Daytona Beach) at 4.99 per 1,000** — the larger, more mature county. Deltona (western interior on I-4) is the Orlando bedroom community; Daytona Beach is the beach resort; DeLand (the Athens of Florida, Stetson University) is the historic core.
- 03**The two-county split is dramatic** — Flagler builds at 4.5x the rate of Volusia. That tells you where the growth is happening: Palm Coast retirement communities, not the mature Daytona Beach coastline.
- 04Volusia County hosts **Daytona International Speedway** (the Daytona 500), **Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University** (the top aviation/aerospace university in the country), **Bethune-Cookman University** (HBCU), Stetson University, and the Halifax Health / AdventHealth hospital systems.
- 05The metro sits at the intersection of **I-4 (Orlando–Daytona Beach)** and **I-95 (Jacksonville–Miami)** — a crossroads that drives both commute and tourism demand.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volusia County | 558,520 | $66,581 | $278,000 | 2,787 | +5.2% |
| 2 | Flagler County | 117,515 | $72,923 | $333,400 | 2,642 | +22.7% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Deltona by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 4 comparable metrics
Deltona is closest in size to Springfield, Wichita, Winston, Akron. best in class on Net migration, Permit pipeline, and behind on Price to income.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Deltona is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Deltona | 0.68M | $68K | $287K | 4.25× | 4.9% | +52.0% | 8.03 | +1.20% | 5.3% |
Springfield, MA | 0.69M | $71K | $276K | 3.92× | 4.9% | +51.8% | 1.10 | -0.15% | 5.7% |
Wichita, KS | 0.65M | $69K | $188K | 2.73× | 4.6% | +49.6% | 4.67 | +0.01% | 3.7% |
Winston-Salem, NC | 0.68M | $64K | $213K | 3.32× | 4.5% | +64.9% | 7.13 | +0.22% | 3.5% |
Akron, OH | 0.70M | $71K | $199K | 2.79× | 5.0% | +53.2% | 1.16 | -0.02% | 4.3% |
Toledo, OH | 0.64M | $64K | $169K | 2.64× | 5.0% | +50.3% | 1.08 | -0.11% | 4.6% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+8,119
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+1.20% of metro population
2,997 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Seminole County, FL | 2,997 |
| Orange County, FL | 2,128 |
| Flagler County, FL | 813 |
| Volusia County, FL | 782 |
| Duval County, FL | 563 |
| St. Johns County, FL | 559 |
Who lives in Deltona
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 47.8
- Owner-occupancy
- 74.3%
- Bachelor's+
- 27.8%
Deltona mature Midwest metro: Median age 47.8, 74.3% owner-occupancy 27.8% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 52.2% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $67,599
- Median age
- 47.8
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 27.8%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 74.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 14.5%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 52.2%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026