Grand Junction, CO
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.89×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Colorado
- 4.95×-0.06
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.0%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Colorado
- 23.9%-2.9
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.3
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.79%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Colorado
- 2.79%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.43%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Colorado
- 0.21%+0.22
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%+0.41
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
4.60
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Colorado
- 5.40
- vs U.S.
- 3.52+1.08
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.7%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Colorado
- 3.6%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-0.2
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+57.3%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+5.4%
Median home value
$349,400
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $986 | $11,832 | 16.6% |
| 2 BR | $1,249 | $14,988 | 21.0% |
| 3 BR | $1,737 | $20,844 | 29.2% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
3.7%
Median household income
$71,485
What's being built
Total TTM
718
Single-family
653
2–4 unit
21
5+ unit
44
All 1 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mesa County | 156,131 | $349,400 | $71,485 | 718 | -9.8% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Grand Junction | 156,131 | $71,485 | 4.89× | 2.79% | +57.3% | 4.60 | 3.7% |
| State College, PA | 158,665 | $72,748 | — | — | +37.3% | — | 2.7% |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL | 160,986 | $71,049 | — | — | +58.0% | — | 5.5% |
| Odessa, TX | 162,300 | $71,031 | — | — | +24.1% | — | 3.5% |
| Jefferson City, MO | 150,182 | $72,425 | — | — | +64.7% | — | 2.5% |
| Santa Fe, NM | 154,481 | $74,689 | — | — | +52.6% | — | 3.6% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+679
+0.43% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Garfield County, CO | 224 |
| Jefferson County, CO | 194 |
| Delta County, CO | 152 |
| Montrose County, CO | 143 |
| El Paso County, CO | 123 |
| Denver County, CO | 116 |
Who lives in Grand Junction
- Median age
- 41
- Bachelor's+
- 30.6%
- Owner-occupancy
- 71.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 6.2%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 45.4%
- Median household income
- $71,485
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.