Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
7.57×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs California
- 5.95×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
33.0%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs California
- 28.8%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.83%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs California
- 3.10%
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.01%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs California
- -0.03%+0.03
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
3.31
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs California
- 2.39+0.92
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.2%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs California
- 5.2%-1.0
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+23.5%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+0.0%
Median home value
$779,000
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $2,155 | $25,860 | 25.1% |
| 2 BR | $2,827 | $33,924 | 33.0% |
| 3 BR | $3,887 | $46,644 | 45.4% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
4.2%
Median household income
$102,840
What's being built
Total TTM
1,617
+75.6% YoY
Single-family
751
2–4 unit
8
5+ unit
858
All 1 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonoma County | 488,436 | $779,000 | $102,840 | 1,617 | +75.6% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Santa Rosa | 488,436 | $102,840 | 7.57× | 2.83% | +23.5% | 3.31 | 4.2% |
| Vallejo, CA | 450,995 | $99,994 | — | — | +27.0% | — | 5.2% |
| Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA | 445,213 | $95,977 | — | — | +53.1% | — | 4.9% |
| Salinas, CA | 437,609 | $94,486 | — | — | +42.3% | — | 9.1% |
| Manchester-Nashua, NH | 422,733 | $100,436 | — | — | +61.6% | — | 3.3% |
| Portland-South Portland, ME | 552,916 | $88,602 | — | — | +66.5% | — | 2.7% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-39
-0.01% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Marin County, CA | 1,182 |
| San Francisco County, CA | 793 |
| Alameda County, CA | 622 |
| Contra Costa County, CA | 408 |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 396 |
| San Mateo County, CA | 366 |
Who lives in Santa Rosa
- Median age
- 43
- Bachelor's+
- 37.8%
- Owner-occupancy
- 62.2%
- Vacancy rate
- 7.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 51.3%
- Median household income
- $102,840
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.