Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
7.67×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs California
- 5.95×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
39.1%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs California
- 28.8%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.31%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs California
- 3.10%+0.21
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.48%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs California
- -0.03%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
tight
Permit pipeline
1.74
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs California
- 2.39
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.9%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs California
- 5.2%-0.3
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+53.1%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+2.9%
Median home value
$735,700
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $2,746 | $32,952 | 34.3% |
| 2 BR | $3,124 | $37,488 | 39.1% |
| 3 BR | $4,075 | $48,900 | 50.9% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
4.9%
Median household income
$95,977
What's being built
Total TTM
775
+18.9% YoY
Single-family
423
2–4 unit
12
5+ unit
340
All 1 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Barbara County | 445,213 | $735,700 | $95,977 | 775 | +18.9% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Santa Maria | 445,213 | $95,977 | 7.67× | 3.31% | +53.1% | 1.74 | 4.9% |
| Salinas, CA | 437,609 | $94,486 | — | — | +42.3% | — | 9.1% |
| Vallejo, CA | 450,995 | $99,994 | — | — | +27.0% | — | 5.2% |
| Manchester-Nashua, NH | 422,733 | $100,436 | — | — | +61.6% | — | 3.3% |
| Anchorage, AK | 399,335 | $95,918 | — | — | +41.1% | — | 4.3% |
| Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA | 488,436 | $102,840 | — | — | +23.5% | — | 4.2% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-2,152
-0.48% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles County, CA | 1,126 |
| San Luis Obispo County, CA | 709 |
| Ventura County, CA | 632 |
| San Diego County, CA | 313 |
| Orange County, CA | 275 |
| Santa Clara County, CA | 168 |
Who lives in Santa Maria
- Median age
- 35
- Bachelor's+
- 35.9%
- Owner-occupancy
- 52.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 6.8%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 53.8%
- Median household income
- $95,977
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.