San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
The most expensive metro in America has stopped going up. Median home value $1.11M. Cap rate proxy 2.5% — tightest in the country. 5-year HPI just +9.7%, barely ahead of inflation. Net out-migration of −25,199. But permits are up +57% YoY: the builders see the bottom.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
8.33×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs California
- 5.95×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
32.3%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs California
- 28.8%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.5%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs California
- 3.1%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.54%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs California
- -0.03%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
1.60
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs California
- 2.39
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.1%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs California
- 4.8%-0.7
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about San Francisco
San Francisco is the most expensive metro in America that has stopped going up. Across 5 counties — Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Marin — the metro packs 4.69 million residents with the highest household income of any in the queue at $133,780 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $1,113,800. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $3,604 — 22% above Boston, the next most expensive. And yet the House Price Index ran just +9.7% over five years (Freddie Mac FMHPI) — the worst 5-year run of any major metro in the country, and YoY is still −2.62%.
The interesting fact is the builders are betting on the bottom. Permit YoY is +57.2% — by far the largest jump of any 5M-pop metro. After the 2023 freeze, permits have rebounded sharply, and 4,683 of the 7,514 (62%) are 5+ unit multifamily. SF is an apartment market doubling down on apartments. Look at where the construction lands across the 5 counties:
- Alameda County (1.66M pop, $1,057,400 median home value) leads with 2,545 building permits TTM — Oakland, Berkeley, and the East Bay tech corridor anchor the pipeline.
- San Mateo County (754K pop) follows with 1,986 permits, then San Francisco County (851K pop, $1,380,500) at 1,669 permits — the city itself permits harder than its suburbs per capita.
- Contra Costa County (1.16M pop) adds 1,159 permits. Marin County (260K pop, $1,390,000) trails with just 155 permits — 0.60 per 1,000 residents, exclusionary zoning incarnate.
SF runs 1.60 permits per 1,000 — the lowest of any 5M-pop metro, below Boston's 1.88 and the California state median of 2.39.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −25,199 returns (IRS SOI) — the largest interstate out-migration in the queue. Top origin counties are all inside the Bay Area (Santa Clara, Alameda, SF, San Mateo, Contra Costa) — the metro is shedding residents to its own region (Silicon Valley, the South Bay, the Sacramento exurbs). The cap rate proxy sits at 2.5% — tight, the lowest of any 5M metro in the country. Unemployment is 4.1%, slightly above the national 4.0%. Inside California, SF ranks #25 of 26 for 5-year HPI.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Don't. There is no cash-flow play in SF at any meaningful scale. The 2.5% cap proxy is institutional yield territory only.
- If you're playing appreciation: This is the contrarian metro. SF has lagged the country by 25pp over five years, the YoY is still negative, and prices may have to fall further before they recover. But the +57% permit ramp says builders see the bottom — if the next 12 months stabilize, the recovery trade has the most upside of any large metro.
- If you already own here: Hold. The Stanford-Berkeley pipeline and the densest biotech-and-AI capital concentration on the planet still anchor the rent floor. Watch the next two YoY prints; if Q1 and Q2 2026 stabilize, the bottom is in.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+9.7%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
-2.6% YoY
$1,113,800 median home value
San Francisco home prices climbed 9.7% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a flat or declining pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change is negative (-2.6%), signaling the market is cooling.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01SF's index ran from ~262 in early 2020 to ~289 in Q4 2025. The **+9.7% 5-year change** in the card above is the canonical figure (Q4 2020 → Q4 2025) — the WORST 5-year run of any major metro in the country.
- 02The California state line ran **+27.9%** over the same window. SF underperformed its own state by 18 percentage points — the rest of California (LA, SD, Riverside, Sacramento) all grew faster.
- 03U.S. metros climbed **+34.3%**. SF lagged the country by ~25 percentage points. This is the deepest underperformance of any large metro relative to the national index.
- 04The most recent quarter is still **−2.62% YoY** — the only large metro that has not yet stabilized. The 2022-2024 tech-corridor reset has not finished playing out.
- 05In its own state, SF ranks **#25 of 26** for 5-year HPI — only Vallejo (also Bay Area) ranks lower. Every other California metro outperformed SF over the past five years.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Mateo County | $1,494,500 | $156,000 | 9.58× | stretched |
| Marin County | $1,390,000 | $142,785 | 9.73× | stretched |
| San Francisco County | $1,380,500 | $141,446 | 9.76× | stretched |
| Alameda County | $1,057,400 | $126,240 | 8.38× | stretched |
| Contra Costa County | $830,800 | $125,727 | 6.61× | stretched |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$3,604
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
32.3% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 32.3% of their income — 9.1 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 3.5 points above California (28.8%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $2,977 | $35.7K | 26.7% | moderate |
| 2 BR | $3,604 | $43.2K | 32.3% | rent-burdened |
| 3 BR | $4,604 | $55.2K | 41.3% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.1%
BLS LAUS · latest month
San Francisco's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.1% — 0.1 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.1%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$133,780
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
7,514
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+57.2% year-over-year
1.60 permits per 1,000 residents
San Francisco pulled 7,514 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 57.2% year-over-year. That works out to 1.60 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
2,689
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
142
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
4,683
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 5 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Alameda County leads with 2,545 permits TTM** — 34% of the metro's 7,514-unit total. Oakland, Berkeley, Fremont, and the East Bay tech corridor anchor the metro pipeline.
- 02San Mateo (1,986) and San Francisco (1,669) follow — together with Alameda they account for **83% of the metro pipeline**. Contra Costa adds 1,159 and Marin trails with just 155.
- 03**Marin County permits 0.6 per 1,000 residents** — exclusionary zoning incarnate. The wealthiest county in the metro builds the least, and San Mateo is right behind it on a per-capita basis.
- 04**Permit YoY is +57.2%** — by far the largest jump of any 5M-pop metro. After the 2023 freeze, builders are pulling permits aggressively, betting on the next cycle. 4,683 of 7,514 (62%) are 5+ unit multifamily.
- 05SF runs **1.60 permits per 1,000 residents** — the lowest of any 5M-pop metro in the country, below Boston's 1.88 and well below the California state median of 2.39. The most expensive metro is also the most supply-constrained.
How to read the map
- 01San Francisco County (the city itself) is the densest fill — 1,669 permits TTM over 851K population = 1.96 per 1,000, tied for the highest in the metro. The city is permitting harder than its suburbs.
- 02**Alameda County (East Bay) anchors the metro by total volume** at 2,545 permits — but with 1.66M residents that's 1.53 per 1,000, below the metro average.
- 03**Marin County (north) is the lightest** — 155 permits over 260K residents = 0.60 per 1,000. The county with the highest median home value ($1.39M) builds essentially nothing.
- 04Contra Costa (the eastern East Bay) sits in the middle — 1,159 permits over 1.16M residents. The exurban relief valve that Pinal is for Phoenix doesn't exist here.
- 05**The map tells the supply story:** the wealthier the county, the less it builds. SF, San Mateo, and Marin combined permit fewer units than just Maricopa, AZ on a per-capita basis.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alameda County | 1,663,823 | $126,240 | $1,057,400 | 2,545 | +55.9% |
| 2 | Contra Costa County | 1,162,648 | $125,727 | $830,800 | 1,159 | |
| 3 | San Francisco County | 851,036 | $141,446 | $1,380,500 | 1,669 | +93.0% |
| 4 | San Mateo County | 754,250 | $156,000 | $1,494,500 | 1,986 | +89.9% |
| 5 | Marin County | 260,485 | $142,785 | $1,390,000 | 155 | +0.7% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to San Francisco by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
San Francisco is closest in size to Boston, Seattle, Washington, Minneapolis.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. San Francisco is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★San Francisco | 4.69M | $134K | $1114K | 8.33× | 2.5% | +9.7% | 1.60 | -0.54% | 4.1% |
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | 4.91M | $112K | $611K | 5.43× | 3.8% | +34.0% | 1.88 | -0.43% | 4.3% |
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 4.00M | $113K | $674K | 5.98× | 2.9% | +23.4% | 3.91 | -0.08% | 5.0% |
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 6.35M | $124K | $553K | 4.46× | 3.2% | +21.3% | 2.79 | -0.31% | 3.8% |
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 3.68M | $98K | $354K | 3.61× | 3.8% | +33.5% | 3.84 | -0.13% | 4.0% |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 4.61M | $86K | $494K | 5.74× | 3.5% | +50.2% | 3.26 | +0.08% | 5.1% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-25,199
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.54% of metro population
16,992 from top origin
San Francisco lost −25,199 net IRS returns in the latest vintage — the largest interstate out-migration of any 5M-pop metro in the queue. The exits are mostly to Santa Clara County (the South Bay tech corridor) and to other Bay Area counties — the metro is shedding residents to its own region.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Santa Clara County, CA | 16,992 |
| Alameda County, CA | 14,588 |
| San Francisco County, CA | 13,639 |
| San Mateo County, CA | 8,534 |
| Contra Costa County, CA | 7,915 |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 6,033 |
Who lives in San Francisco
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 40.0
- Owner-occupancy
- 55.4%
- Bachelor's+
- 52.4%
San Francisco mature Midwest metro: Median age 40.0, 55.4% owner-occupancy 52.4% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 45.3% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $133,780
- Median age
- 40.0
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 52.4%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 55.4%
- Vacancy rate
- 7.0%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 45.3%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q1 2026 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026