Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
Coastal California overflow. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura is single-county Ventura, with the **second-highest median in queue at $768K**, P/I **7.16 expensive**, R/I **30.1% burdened**, **cap proxy 2.73% TIGHT**. HPI +42.8% over 5yr. **Permit YoY +94.6% — BIGGEST acceleration in queue**, but absolute permits 1.99/1k still tight. Migration **−2,331 (−0.28%) shrinking**. Coastal beach metro between LA and Santa Barbara, anchored by Naval Base Ventura County, Amgen, the agricultural Oxnard Plain.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
7.16×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs California
- 5.95×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
30.1%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs California
- 28.8%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.7%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs California
- 3.1%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.28%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs California
- -0.03%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
1.99
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs California
- 2.39
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs California
- 4.8%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Oxnard
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura is coastal California overflow. Across 1 county — Ventura — the metro packs 842,009 residents with a household income of $107,327 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $768,400 — the second-highest median in any T5 metro in the queue (only Honolulu at $873K is higher). The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $2,693 — also the second-highest. The House Price Index ran +42.8% over five years (FHFA HPI) — moderate by California standards.
The interesting fact is that Oxnard combines coastal CA prices with weak fundamentals. The price-to-income ratio is 7.16 — expensive. The rent-to-income is 30.1% — burdened. The cap rate proxy is 2.73% — tight. Recent year-over-year HPI is +2.38% — moderate, slowing. Inside California, Oxnard ranks #9 of 26 by population, #11 by permits, #10 by 5-year HPI — middle of the state in every dimension.
Oxnard is a single-county metro:
- Ventura County (842K pop, $768,400 MHV) is the entire metro. 1,672 permits TTM = 1.99 per 1,000 — well below the national 3.49 and below the California state median of 2.39. The relevant submarkets are inside Ventura: Oxnard proper (the coastal agricultural city), Thousand Oaks/Westlake Village (the affluent inland Conejo Valley), Ventura/San Buenaventura (the coastal county seat), Camarillo, Simi Valley, Moorpark, Ojai.
The 27% single-family / 71% 5+ multifamily mix is extremely multifamily-tilted, the highest 5+ share in the queue. Permit YoY +94.6% — the biggest acceleration in the queue, but off an extremely tight base. The metro is geographically squeezed: coast + Santa Monica Mountains + Topa Topa Mountains + Los Padres National Forest leave very little buildable land.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −2,331 returns (IRS SOI) — −0.28% of population, the classic coastal CA out-migration pattern. Owner-occupancy 64.2%, bachelor's-or-higher 35.7%, rent burden 56.2% (very high). The labor market is anchored by Naval Base Ventura County (Point Mugu + Port Hueneme), Amgen (the biotech giant headquartered in Thousand Oaks), the agricultural Oxnard Plain (strawberries, lemons, avocados), Procter & Gamble, and tourism. Defense + biotech + agriculture + tourism.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Don't. 2.73% cap proxy on a $768K median is among the worst in the queue — only Honolulu (2.36%), San Francisco, and San Jose are tighter.
- If you're playing appreciation: Limited. The +2.38% YoY says the cycle has cooled, the migration is negative, and the structural fundamentals don't support a breakout.
- If you already own here: Hold. The geographic scarcity (coast + mountains) gives a structural floor, the Naval Base + Amgen anchors are unmovable, but don't add — the math doesn't work at current prices.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+42.8%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+2.4% YoY
$768,400 median home value
Oxnard home prices climbed 42.8% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 2.4% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Oxnard ran **+42.8% over five years** — moderate by California standards, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 9 points but trailing most other CA metros.
- 02**Recent YoY is +2.38%** — moderate, slowing. The CA-wide cooldown is here.
- 03Inside California, Oxnard ranks **#10 of 26** for 5-year HPI — middle of the state. **#9 by population, #11 by permits**.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Oxnard outperformed by ~9 points — meaningful but unimpressive compared to the rest of CA.
- 05The takeaway: Oxnard is **expensive coastal CA without the upside** — $768K median, 2.73% cap, only +2.38% YoY. The math doesn't work.
Where the value tier sits — top 1 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventura County | $768,400 | $107,327 | 7.16× | stretched |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$2,693
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
30.1% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 30.1% of their income — 6.8 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.3 points above California (28.8%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $2,250 | $27.0K | 25.2% | moderate |
| 2 BR | $2,693 | $32.3K | 30.1% | rent-burdened |
| 3 BR | $3,652 | $43.8K | 40.8% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Oxnard's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$107,327
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
1,672
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+94.6% year-over-year
1.99 permits per 1,000 residents
Oxnard pulled 1,672 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 94.6% year-over-year. That works out to 1.99 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
456
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
31
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,185
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 1 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Ventura County is the entire metro** — 842,009 residents, 1,672 TTM permits = 1.99 per 1,000.
- 02Oxnard is a **single-county metro** — like Tucson, Honolulu, Las Vegas, Fresno, Bakersfield, El Paso, McAllen.
- 03**27% single-family / 71% 5+ multifamily mix** — extremely multifamily-tilted, the highest 5+ share in the queue. Coastal CA infill construction in Oxnard, Ventura, Camarillo.
- 04Oxnard runs **1.99 permits per 1,000 residents** — well below the national 3.49 and below the California state median of 2.39.
- 05**Permit YoY is +94.6%** — the **biggest acceleration in the queue**, but off an extremely tight base.
How to read the map
- 01**Ventura County (the entire metro) at 1.99 per 1,000** — well below the national 3.49 and below the California state median.
- 02Single-county metros compress the visualization — **the relevant submarkets are inside Ventura County**: Oxnard proper, Thousand Oaks (the affluent inland Conejo Valley), Ventura/San Buenaventura (the coastal county seat), Camarillo, Simi Valley, Moorpark, Ojai.
- 03**Thousand Oaks/Westlake Village** are the affluent inland submarkets along the 101 corridor, with the highest median home values and the worst affordability.
- 04Coastal Oxnard and Ventura are constrained by the coast and the Santa Monica Mountains. Inland sprawl is constrained by the Topa Topa Mountains and Los Padres National Forest.
- 05**The metro is geographically squeezed** — coast + mountains + national forest leave very little buildable land.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ventura County | 842,009 | $107,327 | $768,400 | 1,672 | +94.6% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Oxnard by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Oxnard is closest in size to Bridgeport, Urban Honolulu, Worcester, Stockton.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Oxnard is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Oxnard | 0.84M | $107K | $768K | 7.16× | 2.7% | +42.8% | 1.99 | -0.28% | — |
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT | 0.96M | $112K | $531K | 4.75× | — | +61.2% | — | — | — |
Urban Honolulu, HI | 1.01M | $104K | $873K | 8.37× | 2.4% | +34.6% | 1.42 | -0.31% | — |
Worcester, MA-CT | 0.98M | $94K | $391K | 4.18× | 4.3% | +54.2% | 1.64 | -0.08% | — |
Stockton, CA | 0.78M | $89K | $495K | 5.59× | 2.7% | +34.5% | 3.12 | +0.17% | — |
Ogden-Clearfield, UT | 0.70M | $98K | $438K | 4.45× | 2.9% | +50.5% | 5.94 | +0.19% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-2,331
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.28% of metro population
6,858 from top origin
Oxnard is slowly losing residents on net — net IRS migration of −2,331 returns, −0.28% of population. The classic coastal CA pattern: cost-of-living refugees leaving for Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Idaho. The remaining demand keeps prices high but doesn't push them higher.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles County, CA | 6,858 |
| Santa Barbara County, CA | 905 |
| San Diego County, CA | 586 |
| Orange County, CA | 496 |
| Riverside County, CA | 386 |
| Kern County, CA | 344 |
Who lives in Oxnard
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 39.4
- Owner-occupancy
- 64.2%
- Bachelor's+
- 35.7%
Oxnard relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 39.4, 64.2% owner-occupancy 35.7% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 56.2% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $107,327
- Median age
- 39.4
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 35.7%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 64.2%
- Vacancy rate
- 5.6%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 56.2%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026