
Napa, CA
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
7.70×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs California
- 5.95×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
30.5%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs California
- 28.8%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.58%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs California
- 3.10%
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.21%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs California
- -0.03%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
2.37
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs California
- 2.39
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.3%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs California
- 5.2%-0.9
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+28.1%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+0.7%
Median home value
$838,800
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $2,113 | $25,356 | 23.3% |
| 2 BR | $2,773 | $33,276 | 30.5% |
| 3 BR | $3,532 | $42,384 | 38.9% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
4.3%
Median household income
$108,970
What's being built
Total TTM
325
Single-family
247
2–4 unit
2
5+ unit
76
All 1 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napa County | 137,384 | $838,800 | $108,970 | 325 |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Napa | 137,384 | $108,970 | 7.70× | 2.58% | +28.1% | 2.37 | 4.3% |
| Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI | 164,765 | $95,049 | — | — | +60.0% | — | 2.4% |
| Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA | 129,480 | $85,474 | — | — | +51.4% | — | 5.5% |
| Bismarck, ND | 133,467 | $83,982 | — | — | +33.8% | — | 2.5% |
| California-Lexington Park, MD | 113,814 | $90,438 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Winchester, VA-WV | 143,385 | $82,413 | — | — | +52.9% | — | 3.0% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-283
-0.21% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Solano County, CA | 649 |
| Sonoma County, CA | 246 |
| Contra Costa County, CA | 226 |
| Alameda County, CA | 170 |
| San Francisco County, CA | 162 |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 133 |
Who lives in Napa
- Median age
- 43
- Bachelor's+
- 38.5%
- Owner-occupancy
- 64.4%
- Vacancy rate
- 10.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 50.4%
- Median household income
- $108,970
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.
