Merced, CA
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
5.66×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs California
- 5.95×-0.28
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
27.7%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs California
- 28.8%-1.1
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.18%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs California
- 3.10%+0.08
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.17%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs California
- -0.03%+0.20
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%+0.14
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
2.56
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs California
- 2.39+0.17
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
9.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs California
- 5.2%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+42.5%
homeValues.yearOverYear
-1.2%
Median home value
$368,400
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,213 | $14,556 | 22.4% |
| 2 BR | $1,503 | $18,036 | 27.7% |
| 3 BR | $2,067 | $24,804 | 38.1% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
9.6%
Median household income
$65,044
What's being built
Total TTM
722
+100.0% YoY
Single-family
639
2–4 unit
3
5+ unit
80
All 1 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merced County | 282,290 | $368,400 | $65,044 | 722 | +100.0% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Merced | 282,290 | $65,044 | 5.66× | 3.18% | +42.5% | 2.56 | 9.6% |
| Longview, TX | 287,359 | $65,210 | — | — | +54.1% | — | 4.2% |
| Waco, TX | 278,103 | $63,880 | — | — | +49.5% | — | 3.6% |
| Amarillo, TX | 269,278 | $66,571 | — | — | +39.5% | — | 2.8% |
| Utica-Rome, NY | 291,348 | $68,830 | — | — | +58.7% | — | 4.0% |
| Laredo, TX | 267,282 | $62,506 | — | — | +48.0% | — | 4.1% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+479
+0.17% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Stanislaus County, CA | 1,244 |
| Santa Clara County, CA | 825 |
| Fresno County, CA | 270 |
| San Joaquin County, CA | 269 |
| Monterey County, CA | 206 |
| Alameda County, CA | 199 |
Who lives in Merced
- Median age
- 32
- Bachelor's+
- 14.8%
- Owner-occupancy
- 53.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 5.6%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 45.2%
- Median household income
- $65,044
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.